Freshly Picked, June 24, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

• Are Hidden Costs Draining Your Profit? Here’s What to Do About It
• Need More Staff… or Just a Smarter Strategy?
• Ready to Grow Without Wasting Money? Read This First

Produce

Avocados ended their 11-week price drop with a slight uptick. Roma tomatoes continued their descent but at a slower pace. Prices for most other core items held relatively steady.

Outlook: Avocados are entering their most volatile seasonal window. Consider forward contracts or price protections to avoid sharp spot market increases in July and August. Tomato pricing may see short-term stabilization, but long-term relief isn’t expected until September.

Grains

Grain markets paused last week. Wheat pricing climbed due to harvest delays and global unrest, but the rally appears short-lived. U.S. winter wheat harvest is far behind schedule, particularly in Oklahoma and Illinois.

Outlook: Expect wheat prices to correct as weather improves and harvest resumes. Monitor supplier updates closely and reassess futures-based procurement strategies heading into Q3.

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices softened slightly last week, with CME blocks and barrels both at $1.69/lb. Butter demand remains strong domestically and abroad. Milk production is adequate despite regional tightening.

Outlook: Watch for modest pressure on dairy through summer due to tight cream supplies and sustained retail demand. Multi-unit operators should explore volume leverage on cheese and butter contracts now to prepare for potential Q3 firming.

Beef

Beef cutouts climbed sharply, with Choice up 4% and Select up 3%. Key cuts like tenderloins, striploins, and top sirloins hit or approached record highs. Ground beef also surged, with 50% trim hitting a new record at $2.00/lb. Cattle futures dipped slightly, but pricing strength persisted across primals and grinds.

Outlook: With grilling season in full swing, operators should anticipate elevated pricing on both premium and value cuts through the July 4th holiday. Strategic sourcing on end cuts and ground beef will be key. Consider locking in volume pricing where possible and lean on supplier partners to identify cost-effective substitutes.

Pork

The pork complex continued to climb, with the overall cutout up 4% week-over-week and nearly 19% month-over-month. Bellies, ribs, butts, and hams all moved higher, while boneless loins remained flat. Export activity spiked, especially for pork butts.

Outlook: This may be the last opportunity for favorable pork pricing before late fall. Strong seasonal demand and tightening availability could put upward pressure on key cuts. Multi-unit concepts should align purchasing timelines across locations to lock in pricing ahead of Independence Day volume surges.

Poultry

Weekly chicken harvests rose 1.4% YoY. Boneless breasts dropped $0.04 to $2.65/lb, while tenderloins increased $0.06 to $2.59/lb. Wing prices rose slightly but remain well below historical norms. Thigh meat prices were steady, with B/S thighs up 31% YoY. Turkey breasts rose 6% week-over-week. Egg prices ticked up 1% but are still down 20% month-over-month.

Outlook: While overall poultry markets are entering a typical seasonal decline, expect continued demand pressure on white meat. Multi-unit operators should evaluate pre-orders and contract positions on tenderloins and thighs to manage margin exposure, especially as summer menus lean heavier on chicken.

Seafood

Salmon prices declined 6.9% m/m—finally returning to seasonal norms after months of elevated costs. The early downturn in April marked a turning point in the previously inflated market.

Outlook: Pricing should ease further into Q3. This is an ideal time for multi-unit menus to reintroduce or promote salmon offerings, particularly as margins improve. Consider locking in forward buys before fall volatility begins.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.