Freshly Picked, November 18, 2025
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Iceberg lettuce rebounded after last week’s correction, driven by ongoing tight supply out West, while tomatoes continued their gentle slide downward. Romas dipped slightly below expectations but remain aligned with seasonal movement. Produce volatility is easing overall, offering operators a more stable purchasing environment than October’s spikes.
Outlook: Iceberg should begin a more sustained decline in the coming weeks as supplies improve. Tomato pricing is expected to level out shortly.
Grains
The grain markets surged with activity once the USDA reopened and released a delayed WASDE report plus a backlog of major export sales. Export demand held firm, but higher-than-anticipated yield projections eased bullish pressure. Market behavior underscores how quickly grain pricing is reacting to shifts in supply expectations.
Outlook: Corn’s upward momentum may cool as markets digest the stronger yield outlook.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed as cheese pricing fell, butter climbed, and milk held steady. Inventories remain healthy with stable production schedules, while butter makers continue running aggressively to satisfy strong export and domestic demand. Cheese may offer near-term savings opportunities, but butter remains a cost pressure to watch.
Outlook: Cheese pricing should stay soft in the short run. Butter will likely remain elevated as international demand continues to outpace production.
Beef
Beef markets were mixed, with ribs and loins showing modest strength while chucks, rounds, and ground beef softened. Cutout values dipped as holiday buying shifted focus and supplies tightened in select areas. Multi-unit operators may see improved buying opportunities across everyday cuts, especially in grind and end-cut items.
Outlook: With holiday demand shifting away from beef, pricing should continue to ease next week before recalibrating for December purchasing cycles.
Pork
Pork pulled back across nearly all primals, including loins, ribs, hams, and trim. Even strong export sales on boneless butts weren’t enough to offset softer domestic demand. This broad decline continues to create attractive value opportunities for operators evaluating protein mix and menu flexibility.
Outlook: The pork cutout is expected to keep softening, with no meaningful demand lift on the horizon for the immediate term.
Poultry
Poultry markets stayed relatively steady, with only slight upward movement in key white-meat cuts while thighs continued trending lower. Turkey remained firm heading into the peak holiday stretch, and eggs saw another notable jump due to rising HPAI cases. Overall, operators will feel the most pressure on shell eggs while chicken remains attractively priced against last year’s highs.
Outlook: Chicken prices are stabilizing and may begin inching upward as lighter bird weights tighten availability. Turkey demand will fall quickly after Thanksgiving, while egg prices will stay elevated until HPAI cases ease.
Seafood
Lobster imports held steady and followed their traditional seasonal rhythm: high prices in March, a spring cooldown, and stable pricing through the fall. Despite volatility in other seafood categories, lobster remains consistent and predictable, giving operators reliable planning visibility.
Outlook: December often brings one of the softer pricing windows of the year, and lobster should follow that familiar pattern.
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