Category: CommodityOne Weekly Market Reports

Feature-Image3

Freshly Picked, February 11, 2025

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

 

Produce

produce commodity update from consolidated concepts week of february 10 2025

Iceberg lettuce prices jumped 8.4% w/w due to cold weather impacts, with potential supply gaps ahead. Avocado prices fell 6.8% as border supply improved, though a return to normal price levels isn’t expected until late February. Roma tomato declines slowed, with prices likely stabilizing soon.

 

Grains

grain commodity update from consolidated concepts week of february 10 2025

Wheat markets gained momentum as drought and freezing temperatures raised concerns over U.S. and Russian winter wheat crops. While immediate impacts are uncertain, February will be a key period for monitoring international demand.

 

Dairy

dairy commodity update from consolidated concepts week of february 10 2025

The dairy market declined despite increased retail promotions, with CME blocks down $0.01 to $1.86/lb and barrels falling $0.07 to $1.80/lb. Butter prices dropped 2% w/w to $2.40/lb, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.

 

Beef

beef commodity update from consolidated concepts week of february 10 2025

Beef prices softened as February demand slowed, with the choice cutout down 1% to $323.98/cwt. While tenderloins may ease post-Valentine’s Day, shortloins surged 5% and could climb further as grilling season approaches. Ground beef fell to $3.38/lb, and lean trim dropped 11% to $3.31/lb.

 

Pork

pork commodity update from consolidated concepts week of february 10 2025

Pork prices trended upward, with the cutout up 1% to $95.64/cwt, driven by gains in bellies and loins. The belly primal jumped 2% to $157.32/cwt, marking a 10% increase over two weeks, while pork trim saw mixed movement. Prices should continue rising as processors restock low freezer inventories.

 

Poultry

poultry commodity update from consolidated concepts week of february 10 2025

Chicken harvests dropped 10% w/w but remained flat y/y, leading to mixed price movements across cuts. Boneless/skinless breasts rose $0.03 to $1.51/lb, while tenderloins declined $0.02 to $1.71/lb. With retail promotions expected to rise in February, wholesale chicken prices will likely trend higher.

 

Seafood

seafood commodity update from consolidated concepts week of february 10 2025

Frozen Alaskan pollock prices dropped 10.2% after a recent surge, with volumes recovering in December. Prices should continue declining at a slower pace through April as imports stabilize.

 

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Feature-Image6

Freshly Picked, February 4, 2025

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

 

Produce

tomatoes
tomatoes

Roma tomatoes dropped another 28% w/w, hitting their lowest price since May 2023, but prices should stabilize soon. Avocados saw a slight price dip after a month of increases, though significant relief isn’t expected until late February. 

 

Grains

corn grain

Corn prices fluctuated due to concerns over potential 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, which could impact 35% of U.S. corn exports. Meanwhile, Brazil’s slow corn planting start provides some market support. 

 

Dairy

cheese dairy commodity

Cheese prices climbed, with CME blocks up $0.10 to $1.82/lb and barrels up $0.05 to $1.87/lb, while butter prices fell 3% w/w to $2.45/lb. Retail promotions softened, but demand for milk and cheese remains steady. 

 

Beef

Beef markets remained volatile, with the choice cutout at $327.92/cwt and select at $315.90/cwt. Rib prices have dropped 40% this month but should rebound ahead of spring grilling season, while choice tenderloins climbed 1% to $12.71/lb. Ground beef and trim prices remained high, with 50% trim up 31% this month. 

 

Pork

Pork prices trended higher, with the cutout up 1% w/w and bellies continuing a 19% monthly rise. The loin and pork butt primals also gained, while hams trended lower. Despite strong belly prices, pork trim saw sharp declines, with 72% trim down $0.16 to $0.74/lb. 

 

Poultry

Chicken harvests surged 15% w/w and 2% y/y, keeping most prices stable, though white meat saw slight increases. Retail promotions were mixed, with tenderloin ads up and breast ads down, while drumsticks rose by $0.02 to $0.51/lb. With the Super Bowl approaching, chicken wing demand is expected to strengthen. 

 

Seafood

Tilapia prices dropped 2.9% m/m, easing after a year of inflated costs. Prices are expected to decline further in the short term before rebounding between February and March due to seasonal trends. 

 

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Feature-Image5

Freshly Picked, January 28, 2025

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

 

Produce

consolidated concepts produce commodity update - freshly picked

Avocado prices climbed another 10% w/w, driven by high demand ahead of the Super Bowl, though increased volumes may stabilize the market after February. Roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop but are expected to level out within the next two weeks.

 

Grains

consolidated concepts grain commodity update - freshly picked

Soybean meal prices surged 5% last week, fueled by dry weather in Argentina’s key growing regions. While some rain is forecasted, the ongoing drought is keeping the global market on edge. U.S. soybean meal exports are already at record highs for the 2024/25 marketing year.

 

Dairy

consolidated concepts dairy commodity update - freshly picked

Dairy markets softened last week, with cheese and butter prices declining slightly. CME blocks and barrels fell $0.07 to $1.82/lb, while butter demand remained mixed amid ample cream supplies. Retail promotions increased, but retail prices stayed lower than last year, creating a favorable market for operators.

 

Beef

consolidated concepts beef commodity update - freshly picked

Beef markets saw mixed movements, with ground beef prices up 1% w/w and 31% this month. The choice cutout dropped 1% to $331/cwt, while end cuts and ribs saw slight declines. Lean trim prices continued to rise, with 90% lean trim up 4% to $3.68/lb, driven by strong demand for value cuts.

 

Pork

consolidated concepts pork commodity update - freshly picked

Pork saw mixed trends, with ribs and bellies leading price increases, while hams and pork butts declined. The belly primal rose 7% to $138.60/cwt, driven by strong demand, while boneless pork butt prices dipped 3% w/w. Operators should leverage pricing opportunities to manage fluctuating pork costs.

 

Poultry

consolidated concepts poultry commodity update - freshly picked

Chicken harvests were down 10.7% w/w and 9% y/y, leading to higher sales for chicken breasts and tenderloins, though breast purchases dropped 40,000 lbs due to the reduced harvest. Prices for most chicken parts remained stable or slightly higher, while large eggshell prices rose 2.5% w/w and 35% over the past month, reflecting ongoing demand for cost-effective protein sources.

 

Seafood

Atlantic salmon prices hit a four-month high of $6.06/lb, up 10% y/y. Prices are expected to remain elevated through March due to strong demand and limited corrective weakness in the market. Operators should plan accordingly to manage higher seafood costs.

 

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

consolidated concepts freshly picked market report with updated snapshots of commodities

Freshly Picked, January 21, 2025

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

 

Produce

consolidated concepts produce commodity update - freshly picked

Avocado prices climbed 14.5% w/w, hitting a 20-week high with more increases expected through February. Meanwhile, roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop, falling another 16.4% last week.

 

Grains

consolidated concepts grain commodity update - freshly picked

Wheat prices inched up 1.5% w/w following USDA balance sheet updates. The ongoing Black Sea weather risks could tighten global wheat supplies, possibly benefiting U.S. producers.

 

Dairy

consolidated concepts dairy commodity update - freshly picked

Dairy prices softened as butter and cheese production remained steady with ample supply. CME spot butter fell $0.06 w/w to $2.54/lb, while retail cheese advertisements dropped for the third consecutive week.

 

Beef

consolidated concepts beef commodity update - freshly picked

Beef prices continue climbing, with ground beef up 32% over the past month and choice cuts seeing steady increases. The rib and round segments saw mixed movements, but consumer demand for ground products keeps pushing prices higher.

 

Pork

consolidated concepts pork commodity update - freshly picked

Ham prices rose 2% w/w as Easter preparations began, while ribs and loins saw modest increases. Bellies and trim prices softened slightly but remain a key contributor to the overall pork cutout value.

 

Poultry

consolidated concepts poultry commodity update - freshly picked

Chicken demand remains strong as retailers promote cost-effective protein. Chicken breast sales surged last week, while tenderloins held steady. Turkey breast prices jumped 13.4% w/w due to higher deli promotions, and retail chicken features remain promising.

 

Seafood

Frozen cod prices eased last month after months of overinflated values, supported by declining import volumes. However, prices could rise again after April when volumes typically hit their lows.

 

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked image

Freshly Picked, January 14, 2025

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

 

Produce

consolidated concepts produce commodity update - freshly picked

Avocado prices increased 10% w/w, defying expectations of early-year weakness, while large roma tomatoes dropped 14%. Yellow onions remain steady, with potential growth on the horizon. Avocado pricing may not ease significantly until April or later.

 

Grains

consolidated concepts grain commodity update - freshly picked

Grain markets had a strong start to 2025, with soybean oil leading the charge, climbing 11% w/w on optimism surrounding biofuel tax credit guidance. Wheat also saw gains, breaking its December stagnation, signaling a potentially positive trend for the sector.

 

Dairy

consolidated concepts dairy commodity update - freshly picked

Butter prices rose slightly to $2.60/lb as cream volumes remain abundant, favoring processors. Cheese prices were mixed, with blocks falling slightly and barrels increasing. Production schedules were lighter during the holidays but are expected to strengthen in the new year.

 

Beef

consolidated concepts beef commodity update - freshly picked

The February cattle contract increased by 2% to $198.35/cwt, with choice and select cutouts also climbing. However, rib prices fell significantly, while ground beef and trim prices surged. Retail demand for end cuts and ground beef remains strong, and loin meats are positioned for growth as processors prepare for the spring grilling season.

 

Pork

consolidated concepts pork commodity update - freshly picked

Pork cutouts rose 1% to $90.48/cwt after three weeks of decline, driven by a 10% rally in belly prices. Despite mixed primal performance, trim prices continued to increase. Constrained harvest levels and freezer restocking could strengthen the pork market in the coming weeks.

 

Poultry

consolidated concepts poultry commodity update - freshly picked

USDA reported a 2.8% decrease in young chicken harvest compared to the same holiday week last year. Whole bird and WOG prices rose slightly to $1.35/lb, while white meat prices saw modest gains. Egg prices continue to climb due to the avian flu’s impact, and retail chicken demand is expected to grow as cost-conscious consumers favor affordable protein options.

 

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock prices surged 8.2% m/m to a 20-month high, defying expectations of a year-end decline. Increased volumes in January may lead to price reductions in Q1, with a potential bottoming out between March and May.

 

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked image

Freshly Picked, December 17, 2024

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

 

Produce

consolidated concepts produce commodity update - freshly picked

Tomatoes and lettuce remained focal points, with roma tomatoes falling 14.6% to their lowest since October. Prices are expected to decline further into January. Iceberg lettuce continued its correction, with stabilization anticipated soon around $10/carton.

 

Grains

consolidated concepts grain commodity update - freshly picked

Grain markets were stable, with Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat posting modest gains. Corn rallied early but fell short of five-month highs. The USDA’s December WASDE reduced 2024/25 carryout projections, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 11.4%, marking the first y/y decline since 2020/21.

 

Dairy

consolidated concepts dairy commodity update - freshly picked

The dairy market was mixed as butter rose $0.03 to $2.52/lb, while cheese saw gains with blocks up $0.12 to $1.78/lb. Production schedules varied nationwide, and retail promotions dropped to their lowest level in a month, despite steady retail cheese demand.

 

Beef

consolidated concepts beef commodity update - freshly picked

The beef market saw gains as CME December cattle futures rose nearly 3% to $192.85/cwt. Bone-in export ribs and boneless ribeyes climbed 3% and 6%, respectively, near record highs. Loin prices weakened, with striploins down 6%, while ground beef 81% rose 3% to $2.36/lb.

 

Pork

consolidated concepts pork commodity update - freshly picked

The pork cutout rose 4% to $92.31/cwt, driven by gains in hams, loins, and butts. Hams surged 11%, while boneless pork butts increased $0.05 to $1.36/lb. The belly primal stabilized, but 42% pork trim dropped 5% to $0.42/lb, with 72% trim up 7% to $0.95/lb.

 

Poultry

consolidated concepts poultry commodity update - freshly picked

USDA young chicken production reached 639.6 million pounds last week, driven by slightly larger bird weights. Whole birds and WOGs rose marginally, while drumsticks climbed 8% to $0.53/lb. White meat continues its strong year, with breasts up 52% and tenderloins higher by 39% year-to-date.

 

Seafood

Frozen snow crab prices climbed 15.2% m/m in October, outperforming even the typically volatile shrimp category. Historically predictable with seasonal highs in summer and lows in March, snow crab prices deviated from this pattern. While prices are unlikely to sustain October’s momentum, they’re expected to remain well above 2024’s $6/lb YTD low by March.

 

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

etgryhtjuy.webp

Expert insights curated weekly.

ghytju.webp

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked image

Freshly Picked, December 3, 2024

Freshly Picked Insights

Produce

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is produce.jpg

The produce market faces ongoing challenges from weather disruptions, transitions, and logistical hurdles, with supply constraints and high prices expected for key commodities through December. Despite gradual improvements, heat damage and cold weather are impacting yields and crop growth, complicating transitions. Broccoli supplies remain tight with prorating expected, while commodities like lettuce, cauliflower, artichokes, and various greens continue to experience high prices and limited availability. Flexibility and coordination are essential to stabilize operations.

Grains

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Grains.jpg

Soybean meal was the only major grain to post week-over-week gains. Corn prices faced downward pressure amid trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico. Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat conditions improved as drought in the Southern Plains continued to ease.

Dairy

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Dairy.jpg

Spot block cheese prices remained stable, but barrel prices fell to a 32-week low. Spot butter hit a new year-to-date low, reflecting softened market conditions. Meanwhile, cold storage cheese stocks continued to decline rapidly, as highlighted in last week’s October report.

Beef

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Beef.jpg

Cattle placements in feedlots rose 5% year-over-year to 2.28 million head, slightly exceeding expectations. U.S. feeder cattle imports from Mexico, which account for 4% of the harvest total, have been suspended due to a case of New World Screwworm in Southern Mexico. Total beef in cold storage dropped 3.1% in October to 431.9 million pounds. The choice cutout increased 1.4% last week, while bone-in export ribs reached a record high of $12.99/lb.

Pork

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Prk.jpg

Lean hog harvest declined 2.8% week-over-week, with total pork in cold storage falling 2.7% year-over-year to 426 million pounds in October. Despite the reduced harvest, the pork cutout remained flat week-over-week. However, 42% pork trim saw significant declines, dropping 10% for the week and 49% for the month.

Poultry

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Poultry.jpg

Young chicken harvest declined 1.4% week-over-week, while total poultry in cold storage dropped 5.7% year-over-year to just over 1.1 billion pounds. The eggshell index decreased 3% last week but saw a significant 38% increase for November, reflecting fluctuating supply and demand dynamics in the poultry market.

 

 

Freshly Picked image

Freshly Picked, November 25, 2024

Freshly Picked Insights

Produce

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is produce.jpg

Iceberg lettuce prices climbed another 24% last week amid ongoing crop transitions and yield concerns, defying typical seasonal trends as prices remain elevated. Roma tomatoes rose 5.2%, reaching their highest level since January, driven by Mexican growers transitioning between regions, though this aligns with usual seasonal patterns. Meanwhile, green tomatoes saw a slight price decline—the first since September—following disruptions caused by recent hurricanes in the Eastern U.S.

Grains

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Grains.jpg

Grain markets were quiet last week, with soybean oil (SBO) taking a sharp 7% drop due to a collapse in palm oil prices following reports of unexpectedly high September carryout in Indonesia. SBO prices are now trending near October lows despite strong export sales to India, though weaker soybean prices and speculation of slower demand may be contributing to the selloff. Corn and soybean export sales remain solid, but market skepticism persists, with traders anticipating a slowdown as Brazil’s harvest begins in January.

Dairy

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Dairy.jpg

The dairy market was mixed last week, with butter prices declining $0.05 to $2.55/lb due to reduced production capacity and light foodservice demand, while cheese prices edged up slightly to $1.68/lb for both blocks and barrels. Retail cheese demand was sharply higher, supported by increased promotions, though foodservice demand remained slow. Fluid milk volumes stayed tight despite seasonally increasing outputs in some regions, while nonfat dry milk fell to $1.38/lb, and Class II cream dropped 2.3%. A winter storm in the Midwest and East could impact milk production and logistics in the coming week.

Beef

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Beef.jpg

Beef production declined 2% week-over-week and 1.8% year-over-year due to reduced harvest volumes, despite heavier steer weights. The choice cutout rose 1% to $306.80/cwt, with boneless ribeyes reaching a record high of $13.93/lb, while select cuts dropped 1%. Ribs and tenderloins saw strong price gains as holiday demand ramps up, while end cuts like chuck rolls and bottom rounds showed mixed movement. Ground beef 81% increased 3% to $2.42/lb, and trim prices remained mostly stable.

Pork

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Prk.jpg

Pork production increased 1.3% last week to 563.4 million pounds, though the cutout value declined by 1% to $93.07/cwt, driven by significant drops in picnics (down 15%) and pork trim prices. Boneless pork loin prices rose 5% to $1.42/lb, while other cuts like tenderloins remained flat and spareribs edged lower. Trim segments showed notable weakness, with 42% trim down 10% to $0.43/lb and 72% trim dropping 7% to $0.79/lb, reflecting softer demand in these areas.

Poultry

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Poultry.jpg

Chicken production rose 3.3% year-over-year, supported by increased harvest numbers and slightly heavier bird weights, though retail focus shifted toward turkeys. Prices for key chicken cuts were mostly flat or slightly lower, with boneless/skinless breasts down to $1.47/lb and tenderloins steady at $1.67/lb but down 10% month-over-month. Chicken wings held at $1.89/lb, while boneless/skinless thigh meat dropped 1% to $1.60/lb. In the turkey market, whole turkeys fell 1%, and breast meat declined 6% as Thanksgiving demand levels off.

Seafood

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Seafood.jpg

Fresh yellowfin tuna prices declined 2.2% in September, marking a three-month losing streak as prices normalize after a sharp rise earlier this year. Seasonal trends suggest prices will likely continue to drop through November before bottoming out, followed by a potential peak in January, consistent with historical patterns. Any price strength in early 2025 is expected to be short-lived, as yellowfin typically reaches its yearly low between April and May.

 

Freshly Picked image

Freshly Picked, November 18, 2024

Alerts & What’s Trending

Produce

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is produce.jpg

Iceberg lettuce prices surged another 88% week-over-week, more than tripling over the past month to reach $39.18/carton, driven by California crop transitions and lower yields from adverse growing conditions. This sharp increase has returned prices to the typical $35-$55 range for Q4, a stark contrast to the flat iceberg pricing trends seen in late 2022. Reports suggest prices may remain elevated above $35 longer than usual as supply challenges persist.

Grains

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Grains.jpg

Grain markets faced declines last week, led by losses in the soybean and wheat complexes, driven by favorable rainfall in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean oil (SBO) also reversed its upward trend due to weaker export sales, the halt in palm oil’s rally, and concerns over U.S. biofuel policy under President-elect Trump’s EPA pick, Lee Zeldin, who has previously opposed ethanol growth. While palm oil’s recovery could support SBO in the short term, the long-term outlook for U.S. biofuel demand and export strength will be critical in shaping the market.

Dairy

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Dairy.jpg

The dairy market continued to soften last week, with cheese and butter prices declining as fluid milk remained flat amid steady to increasing production. CME spot butter fell $0.06 to $2.60/lb, with uneven demand as retail sales held steady but foodservice demand weakened. Cheese prices dropped sharply, with barrels down 8% to $1.67/lb and blocks down 5% to $1.66/lb, despite increased retail promotions. Milk production varies regionally, with steady volumes in the Northeast and Central regions, while the West reports stronger output supported by favorable conditions.

Beef

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Beef.jpg

Beef production increased 1% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year due to heavier steer weights and slightly higher harvest volumes, but prices continued to soften. The choice cutout dropped 2% to $303.80/cwt, led by declines in end cuts like chuck rolls (down 44% for November) and ground beef 81% (down 9% to $2.34/lb). While some segments like bone-in ribs and tenderloins saw modest gains, overall demand is slowing as the market transitions into the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Pork

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Prk.jpg

Pork production decreased by 1.7% last week to 556.4 million pounds, resulting in overall price declines across most cuts. The pork cutout value dropped 4% to $94.07/cwt, with significant decreases in the belly primal—down 19% to $129.49/cwt—and pork trim segments, where 42% trim fell sharply by 22% to $0.48/lb. These reductions present potential cost-saving opportunities for foodservice operators as prices for many primals and subprimals have softened.

Poultry

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Poultry.jpg

Chicken production rose 3.5% year-over-year due to increased harvest volumes and larger bird sizes, but market prices remain soft. While boneless/skinless breasts edged up slightly to $1.49/lb, tenderloins and wings continued their monthly declines, down 18% and 11%, respectively. Drumsticks and WOG prices showed modest weekly gains, but boneless/skinless thigh meat dropped 4% to $1.63/lb. In the turkey segment, prices remained stable, with whole turkeys up 1% week-over-week and breast meat flat.

Seafood

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Seafood.jpg

Frozen cod fillet prices hit a 12-month high of $4.25/lb in September, marking three consecutive months of increases. Import volumes remained steady between 3,600 and 4,600 MT, suggesting robust domestic demand is driving the price rally.

 

Freshly Picked image

Freshly Picked, November 11, 2024

Alerts & What’s Trending

Produce

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is produce.jpg

Iceberg lettuce prices surged nearly 45% last week to an 18-week high, yet they remain below typical fall levels due to unusually low prices since early September. With declining yields and a regional transition on the West Coast, prices are expected to continue rising through mid-November before easing back in January. Roma tomatoes saw a slight decline, but limited volumes from Florida and Mexico should keep prices stable until December, while 48-count Hass avocados dropped 1% week-over-week, though prices remain elevated 37% year-over-year.

Grains

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Grains.jpg

Grain markets saw a positive week, driven by robust export sales in corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Corn exports hit nearly 11 million metric tons over the past month, reaching levels last seen in 2020-21, with strong demand from Mexico, Japan, and Colombia filling the gap left by China. Soybean oil also saw impressive sales, with last week’s figure of 114,311 metric tons marking the largest weekly total since 2012, partly spurred by a rally in palm oil prices that is boosting international demand for SBO. Corn demand remains strong with support from high ethanol production, keeping the outlook bullish through year-end.

Dairy

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Dairy.jpg

The dairy market softened last week, with cheese and fluid milk categories showing declines. CME cheese blocks dropped 5% to $1.75/lb, and spot butter prices also dipped to $2.66/lb, though strong butter production continues in preparation for holiday demand. Milk production is gradually increasing across the U.S., and Class II cream rose by 7%, though Class III milk saw a sharp 11% decline. Retail dairy demand remains steady, with anticipated promotions expected for holiday baking season.

Beef

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Beef.jpg

Beef production remained steady week-over-week despite a 1.3% decline in harvest, offset by increasing cattle weights. As holiday demand for beef wanes, cutout values dropped, with choice down 3% to $309.46/cwt and select down 2%. While rib and loin segments saw modest gains, end cuts like chuck rolls plummeted 30%, and ground beef prices fell sharply post-Halloween, down 15% to $2.55/lb. Trim prices also fluctuated, with 50% trim settling at $0.73/lb and 90% lean trim down 3%.

Pork

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Prk.jpg

Pork production rose 2.4% last week, yet the cutout value declined by 5% to $97.98/cwt as most primals, except ribs, experienced price drops. Notably, the belly primal fell 10% after reaching a yearly high, and holiday-driven ham prices also decreased by 7%. In the trim segment, 42% trim saw a sharp decline of 15%, reflecting softening demand in some cuts as seasonal purchasing slows down.

Poultry

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Poultry.jpg

Chicken production remained steady year-over-year, supported by slightly heavier bird weights despite a 1.1% weekly drop in harvest numbers. Prices across the chicken complex are weak but stabilizing, with notable monthly declines in white meat cuts like boneless breasts (down 12%) and tenderloins (down 24%), while chicken wings also dropped 15% month-over-month. Turkey prices, however, saw significant increases as holiday demand ramps up, with whole turkeys up 6% and turkey breast prices rising 5% week-over-week.

Seafood

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Seafood.jpg

In September 2024, the U.S. experienced a 4.3% month-over-month increase in the average per pound price of frozen tilapia fillets, reaching $2.17. This rise deviates from the typical seasonal trend, where prices often peak between March and April and decline through the summer months. The unexpected price increase may be attributed to factors such as reduced import volumes or heightened demand during this period. Historically, tilapia prices tend to bottom out after August, making this September uptick noteworthy.