Freshly Picked, March 25, 2025
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
The produce sector finally moved: Iceberg lettuce surged 32% w/w as Western crops transition, and roma tomatoes jumped 12.4% amid tightening Eastern supply. Avocados climbed 2.8%, with tariff concerns looming for April. Prices may stay elevated until summer. Yellow onions and most other categories remained stable, though iceberg and romas may continue rising short term.
Grains
Wheat cooled after a strong run, with traders watching U.S. drought conditions ahead of April 7 crop progress updates. Despite net cancellations for the current marketing year, strong 2025/26 sales helped stabilize the complex. Export strength could reignite prices if drought worsens, but until then, expect sideways trading.
Dairy
Dairy prices softened across the board amid lower retail promotions and mixed export demand. Butter fell $0.04 to $2.30/lb, and cheese blocks dropped 9% to $1.62/lb. Barrels were also down $0.16 to $1.57/lb. Cheese supply remains balanced, but foodservice demand is quiet. Milk production is seasonally high, putting additional pressure on prices.
Beef
Cattle prices hit a new record, with the April contract at $209.25/cwt. Choice beef cutouts climbed 3% to $328.06/cwt, fueled by grilling season demand. Premium cuts surged—tenderloins rose $0.81 to $13.21/lb, and shortloins and striploins each climbed 2%. Chuck rolls were up 4%, and trim prices also jumped, with 50% trim spiking 12% to $1.39/lb. With strong consumer demand and high cattle weights, beef is poised to hold price strength despite tariff uncertainty.
Pork
The pork cutout fell 1% w/w to $95.86/cwt as production ramped up. Loin and butt primals held steady or rose slightly, with boneless baby back ribs up $0.21 to $2.78/lb. Bellies continued a downward trend—off 5% to $137.44/cwt and down 30% m/m. International sales exceeded 6.2 million lbs, but future export stability is questionable under current tariff pressures. Expect continued volatility without clear trade resolutions.
Poultry
Chicken harvest was down 1% w/w but up 1.7% y/y, with boneless breasts rising another $0.13 to $2.18/lb and tenderloins up $0.02 to $1.79/lb. Retailers pushed promotions hard—up 38% w/w—with nearly half of all U.S. grocery stores spotlighting chicken breasts. Wings fell another $0.12 to $1.52/lb, while thigh meat saw modest increases. Egg prices dropped sharply (down 32% w/w) as supply recovers amid no major HPAI outbreaks. Retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and Mexico may help ease U.S. chicken part prices.
Seafood
Frozen cod quietly surprised with a 2.7% m/m increase in January, reaching $4.38/lb—its highest point in 16 months. After strong second-half 2024 gains, January’s 15.1% y/y rise was the biggest since March 2023. Prices may dip slightly in February, but a renewed surge is likely in March-April based on seasonal trends.
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