Freshly Picked, October 28, 2025
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Produce markets remained volatile as seasonal transitions tightened supply in key categories. Iceberg lettuce surged another 16% week-over-week, reaching a new year-to-date high and pushing the expected ceiling above $50 per case. Tomatoes dominated market headlines, with large romas spiking nearly 60%, reversing three weeks of declines. Avocados showed rare stability, edging higher for only the third time since March to hover near $30 per carton.
Outlook: Tomato and lettuce markets are expected to remain elevated through late November due to limited supply and sustained demand. Avocado pricing appears to have reached a short-term equilibrium heading into Q4.
Grains
Grain markets turned higher last week, with corn, soybeans, and soybean meal all breaking through technical resistance levels. Corn’s rally above its 100-day moving average was particularly notable, signaling renewed speculative activity. The move came absent major fundamental drivers, suggesting optimism among traders regarding potential U.S.–China trade progress.
Outlook: Grains could remain supported in the near term, but volatility will continue until more concrete trade or yield data emerges.
Dairy
Dairy markets softened modestly across the board. CME block cheese slipped $0.04 to $1.73/lb, and barrels dipped $0.02 to $1.76/lb. Butter prices also eased $0.03 to $1.56/lb, though they remain slightly above the five-year average. Milk and cream supplies are ample, supporting steady production. Export activity remains firm, especially in cheese, while domestic butter demand varies by region.
Outlook: Expect stable pricing through November, supported by balanced inventories and solid export interest. Seasonal baking demand should offset lighter Central region buying patterns.
Beef
Cattle futures retreated 2–4% across contracts, but boxed beef values continued to climb on strong holiday and export demand. The Choice cutout rose to $373.14/cwt (+2%), with gains across ribs, loins, and tenderloins. Ribs in particular saw notable movement, with boneless HVY ribeyes up $0.26 to $14.01/lb and shortloins climbing $0.34 to $8.20/lb. End cuts and ground beef also firmed, with 81% lean rising $0.35 to $3.45/lb and 90% trim up $0.09 to $4.10/lb.
Outlook: Expect steady-to-firm pricing through mid-November as seasonal demand supports the complex. Even with a slight dip in live cattle prices tied to Argentine imports, overall fundamentals remain bullish heading into the holidays.
Pork
The pork cutout closed 3% lower at $99.71/cwt, driven by weaker pricing in loins, bellies, and hams. Boneless loins fell to $1.32/lb, while ribs and bellies both slipped modestly week-over-week. Tenderloins provided limited support, ticking higher to $1.85/lb, and export sales of pork butts added some cushion against domestic softness. Trimming markets were mixed, with lean trim dropping more sharply.
Outlook: Exports continue to offer relief, but domestic demand is expected to remain tepid. Near-term pricing pressure should persist into early November before stabilizing seasonally toward year-end.
Poultry
USDA young chicken harvest came in at 172.7 million head last week, down 1% week-over-week but still 2.4% higher than last year. White meat prices continued to soften, with boneless/skinless breasts easing to $1.13/lb and tenderloins down to $1.40/lb. Wings and thighs followed suit, both trending lower as production remains strong and inventories well-supplied. Turkey and egg prices held steady week-over-week, though turkey remains elevated year-over-year, up 273% for boneless breasts and 57% for whole birds.
Outlook: Broiler markets appear to be finding a floor after several weeks of decline. Increased retail promotions heading into November could lift wholesale prices modestly, but elevated production and inventory levels will limit upward movement. HPAI outbreaks remain a potential disruptor for turkey and egg pricing this quarter.
Seafood
Scallop prices remain the standout story in seafood, dropping nearly 40% month-over-month in July and hitting a new four-year low. The timing aligns with typical seasonal patterns, with prices bottoming out midyear before trending higher in Q4. While a moderate rebound is likely, analysts don’t expect a return to early-2025 price levels given current demand conditions.
Outlook: Scallop prices should strengthen slightly through November as holiday orders increase but may soften again early next year as seasonal buying winds down.
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