Freshly Picked, December 16, 2025
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Tomato prices declined sharply last week, with Roma tomatoes falling well below recent highs. Lettuce continued its predictable downward trend after fall volatility, providing welcome pricing stability for operators managing produce-heavy menus.
Outlook: Tomato pricing is expected to level off through year-end before declining further in February. Lettuce prices should continue easing into Q1 2026. This environment supports more confident menu planning and standardization across units without frequent price resets.
Grains
Grain markets were quiet, with soybean exports falling short of expectations following recent trade developments. Futures prices softened as demand outlooks were reassessed.
Outlook: Grain prices are expected to trend lower in the short term, which could help limit cost pressure across proteins, breading, and packaged items. Multi-unit operators should monitor these trends as part of broader cost-control and forecasting strategies for early 2026.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed. Cheese and fluid milk prices declined modestly, while butter edged slightly higher. Retail butter demand remains strong, and foodservice demand is steady. Production schedules have normalized following holiday disruptions.
Outlook: Cheese prices may face continued mild pressure into early 2026, while butter pricing could remain supported by retail demand. Overall dairy markets are relatively balanced, supporting cost predictability for operators focused on consistency across menus and locations.
Beef
Cattle markets moved sharply higher last week, while boxed beef prices declined due to stronger harvest levels. Premium cuts were mixed, but end cuts such as chucks and rounds showed steadier pricing. Ground beef remained flat to slightly lower, helping support value-driven menu strategies.
Outlook: With holiday buying largely complete, boxed beef prices are expected to remain range-bound through year-end. Operators managing multiple menus should consider leaning into end cuts and ground applications to maintain margin consistency while minimizing exposure to premium cut volatility.
Pork
Pork markets strengthened across the board, driven by strong export demand and seasonal inventory building. The pork cutout and all primals moved higher, with notable strength in hams as early Easter production begins. Bellies, ribs, and butts also showed upward momentum.
Outlook: Pork pricing may remain firm in the near term as global demand stays strong. Multi-unit operators should evaluate contract coverage and promotional timing, especially for ribs, bellies, and ham-driven menu items, to limit cost variability across locations.
Poultry
Chicken markets remained largely stable last week, supported by strong production levels. White meat pricing was flat, wings continued to trend lower, and dark meat showed modest gains. Compared to last year, most chicken cuts remain meaningfully lower, easing margin pressure across menus. Egg prices declined week over week as flock recovery continues, though month-over-month pricing remains elevated.
Outlook: Poultry pricing is expected to stay relatively steady through December with limited upside risk. This creates an opportunity for multi-unit operators to maintain consistent menu pricing and reduce volatility across locations. Egg markets should continue to normalize into early 2026, though holiday demand could cause short-term fluctuations.
Seafood
Frozen snow crab pricing continued to decline based on newly released import data, moving further away from early-2025 highs. Markets are gradually returning to more seasonal behavior after a volatile year.
Outlook: Snow crab prices are expected to continue easing into Q1 2026 before stabilizing ahead of the spring season. Operators planning limited-time offers or regional seafood promotions may find improved buying opportunities later in winter.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
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