Freshly Picked, November 25, 2025
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Avocados dropped for the second week in a row, falling toward levels well below expectations thanks to a smooth transition to Mexico’s main crop. Lettuce and tomatoes moved in line with projections and remain relatively stable, giving operators predictable cost behavior as they plan Q1 menus.
Outlook: Avocados may slide toward $20 if supply stays consistent, while lettuce and tomatoes should remain mostly flat through year-end before typical early-January seasonal adjustments.
Grains
Grain markets pulled back across the board as enthusiasm around U.S.–China soybean purchase expectations faded, leaving total sales far below the informal target set earlier this year. Soybeans led the decline as markets corrected around slower shipment timing and reduced confidence in future demand.
Outlook: Without a meaningful uptick in Chinese buying, soybean prices may continue softening as the market unwinds truce-driven gains.
Dairy
Cheese and butter pricing was mixed as steady production and softer foodservice demand kept markets in balance. Export demand remains lackluster, limiting any major upside risk and providing multi-unit operators with fairly consistent pricing week over week.
Outlook: Expect continued sideways movement across cheese and butter as the market stays well supplied and domestic demand holds steady through the holidays.
Beef
Beef prices softened modestly as boxed beef values eased and holiday-driven premium cuts approached their seasonal peaks. Ground beef and lean trim showed limited upward momentum, giving operators a bit more cost stability heading into December menu planning.
Outlook: Post-holiday demand will likely push the beef cutout lower next week, with chucks, rounds, and mid-tier loin items expected to show the most relative value through December.
Pork
Pork markets pushed lower across most primals as bellies and trim led declines, though loins, ribs, and tenderloins saw small lifts that may present targeted buying opportunities. Demand remains sluggish despite steady export movement, keeping overall pricing favorable for operators.
Outlook:Expect continued softness across the cutout as domestic demand shows no strong signs of recovery, creating near-term value for operators locking in winter purchasing.
Poultry
Broiler production moved higher again this week, keeping most chicken items stable while breasts dipped slightly and wings continued their steep year-over-year slide. Turkey remains the biggest mover with boneless breasts still climbing sharply, and egg markets are tightening quickly as HPAI cases rise, which may increase input costs for breakfast-heavy concepts.
Outlook: With supply strong and demand shifting toward turkey, chicken pricing should remain steady through year-end, while egg markets may stay elevated until disease pressure eases.
Seafood
Snapper pricing held steady after earlier declines tied to trade volatility and normal seasonal pressure, landing at its lowest point since 2021. As we enter winter, snapper typically trends firmer, which may elevate costs into Q1 before easing again later in spring.
Outlook: Expect snapper prices to climb through January and stay elevated into early Q1 before returning to a downward trend heading into May.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
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