Category: CommodityOne Weekly Market Reports

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Freshly Picked, October 28, 2024

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Produce

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The produce market faces ongoing challenges as growers transition between regions, with lasting effects from heat, pest issues, and recent hurricanes impacting availability and prices. Romaine, iceberg lettuce, broccoli, and other leafy greens are seeing reduced volumes due to heat stress and pest damage, while crops in the Southeast, including citrus and tomatoes, are heavily affected by recent hurricanes, leading to significant supply losses. High demand persists for items like avocados and table grapes, though the grape season may end early due to heat-related losses, and mushrooms remain constrained across all varieties. 

Grains

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The grains market remained relatively stable, with soybean oil and corn seeing slight gains. Soybean oil’s increase was largely driven by rising palm oil prices, though U.S. fundamentals may not support a prolonged rally. Corn export sales, however, continued at an impressive pace, with recent sales totaling 3.6 million metric tons—the second-highest weekly October total on record. While demand is strong, especially from Mexico, there’s speculation that these purchases could be front-loaded, potentially slowing down in future months. 

Dairy

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The dairy market showed mixed results last week, with cheese and butter prices dipping slightly amid steady to strong foodservice demand. Cheese prices saw some variation, with CME blocks holding steady while barrels fell by 7.5%, and spot butter prices decreased to $2.65/lb. Milk production trends are stabilizing due to improved cow comfort in cooler regions, though high temperatures in California are impacting output; overall, Class III milk saw a slight 1% increase, reflecting steady demand. 

Beef

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Beef prices continue to trend upward, with notable increases in chuck rolls, ribeyes, and beef trim, supporting an 8% monthly rise in the overall cutout, now at $321.17/cwt. Cattle weights are heavier, yet total beef production has dropped 1.3% compared to last year, pushing prices higher despite mixed movements within choice cuts. Ground beef prices show a significant monthly increase, with 81% lean up 10% even though last week saw a dip; meanwhile, trim segments are also showing volatility, with 50% trim spiking 16% week-over-week. 

Pork

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Pork production rose slightly by 1% last week, with the cutout gaining 2% to reach $98.15/cwt, driven by stronger rib, ham, and belly prices. Export-demanded cuts like spareribs and hams saw significant increases, with the ham primal up 6% and medium spareribs up 4%. Belly prices are also surging, up 12% for the month, while pork trim prices spiked, with 42% trim up 8% and 72% trim up 12%, reflecting a tighter supply. 

Poultry

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Chicken production is up 3% year-over-year, supported by higher harvest numbers and increased bird size, yet prices in key chicken parts continue to decline. White meat cuts, including boneless/skinless breasts and tenderloins, have seen sharp drops, down 22% and 24% this month, respectively, while wings dipped below the $2.00/lb wholesale price for the first time since February. Drumsticks and thigh meats remain mostly flat, but turkey prices are beginning to show slight movement, hinting at seasonal increases as Thanksgiving approaches. 

Seafood

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Frozen Alaskan pollock prices saw a 3.3% month-over-month decline in August, reflecting sluggish U.S. demand following a sharp price drop earlier in the year and an unusual pattern in import volumes. Prices surged temporarily in spring but have since stabilized downward as imports and demand remain low. This trend highlights a weak market for pollock, with both prices and volumes declining steadily in recent months. 

 

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Freshly Picked, October 21, 2024

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Produce

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The combination of heat, ongoing pest pressures, and severe weather issues in the eastern U.S. will continue to create challenges in the coming weeks. We will closely monitor the situation and keep everyone updated as we navigate through what promises to be a hectic October for the industry. Although the weather in Salinas has cooled slightly, the lingering effects of recent heat will continue to be felt. Certain crops, including endive, escarole, leeks, cilantro, and fennel, remain escalated, with bok choy at an extreme trigger point due to light supplies.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures moved lower last week with excellent crop progress 10% above last year. Last week the WASDE report from the USDA was not very impactful to the market. Canola seed futures rose, Canola oil moved slightly higher. Palm continues to be higher. Corn, soybeans, meal, oil, and wheat all moved lower.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are up this week. California and Northwest markets are up. Two farms were identified as HPAI positive over the weekend in Washington & Utah. The Block & Barrel are decreasing. Spot Cheese markets are falling faster than expected. Butter is down.

Beef

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Packers once again had to pay higher for cattle and were also able to lower the weekly slaughter which helped push prices higher across most all cuts. Ribs, tenders, strips, and short loins saw the largest increases on the carcass. Chuck rolls remain very limited and are trading at four year highs. Rounds and thins saw modest increases. Market is expected to continue to stay strong.

Pork

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Butts both Bone–in and boneless are trading near established price levels. Loins are steady–again, demand continues to be down. Ribs are mixed–spareribs are ramping up for new year’s, while backs and louis are steady. Bellies are steady and the market is increasing slowly since mid–September. Trim is steady with minimal increases on the week.

Poultry

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Bigger birds, better hatchability, and larger egg sets are allowing extra supply on the market, especially in the boneless market. Tenders and breasts are seeing increased supply on all sizes. Wings are seeing extra availability on larger sizes. Small wing availability is tightening. Dark meat demand remains very good.

Seafood

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Port strike lasted on a few days with minimal impact to the seafood imports sector. We are expecting demand to begin increasing on shellfish items due to the holidays, which generally firms that market up going into the end of the year.

 

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Freshly Picked, October 14, 2024

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Produce

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Hurricanes Helene and Milton, combined with unfavorable weather in the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala, as well as port delays and insect pressure in California, are causing significant disruptions to multiple commodities. Market prices remain high, and yields from the East are considerably lower. With the devastation from Hurricane Helene across the Southeast and Florida now hit by Hurricane Milton, the supply of fresh produce from South Georgia and Florida is expected to be extremely volatile. Impacted commodities include Citrus, Corn, Cotton, Tomatoes, Bell Pepper, Eggplant, Peanuts, Strawberries, and more.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures moved higher with increased energy costs which is impacting palm and Canola, too. The energy markets are much higher because of tensions in the middle east.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are up this week. California and Northwest markets are up. Many buyers, anticipating a potential market uptick, are looking to secure larger positions in advance of any price increases. The Block & Barrel are decreasing. Butter is down.

Beef

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Ribs are ticking higher, as buyers need to restock. Strips are mirroring ribs, while top butts weak tone has slowed. Tenderloins continue to muster strength, as packers continue to raise prices. The chuck and round complex are leveling out for the time being due to roast ads and change of the seasons. Grinds, w/reduced harvest, appear to have allowed reduction in inventory.

Pork

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Butts both Bone–in and boneless are trading near established price levels. Loins are barely steady–as chop demand has decreased. Ribs are steady. Bellies are steady and market has settled. Trim is steady to higher for supply.

Poultry

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Bigger birds, better hatchability, and larger egg sets are allowing extra supply on the market, especially in the boneless market. Tenders and breasts are seeing increased supply on all sizes. Wings are seeing extra availability on all sizes. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly balanced.

Seafood

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The port strike on the East and Gulf coasts has been suspended effective Thursday, October 3, 2025. The ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, Ltd. have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025.

 

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Freshly Picked, October 7, 2024

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Produce

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Hurricane Helene, unfavorable weather patterns across the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala, port delays, and insect pressure in California are affecting multiple commodities. These issues have led to continued higher market prices and lower overall yields.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures traded higher last week with concerns of dry South American weather ahead of their planting. Crude oil moved higher, Canola, was higher, and palm oil were higher, too. There is also a strike looming by the Longshoreman which will disrupt imports and exports for all agricultural products.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are down this week. California and Northwest markets are flat. The Block & Barrel are decreasing. Butter is down. Market participants are closely monitoring the potential impacts of Hurricane Helene and port strikes along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.

Beef

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The SE Region demand is being impacted by hurricane Helene. Ribs continue to trade steady. Strips also are trading steady, while top butts are showing weakness. Tenderloins are steady but for how long? Chuck and round complexes are diverging; chuck rolls continue to show strength, while the round complex is adjusting lower. Grinds continue to offer opportunity to buyers.

Pork

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Butts both Bone–in and boneless are trading near established price levels. Loins are barely steady–as chop demand has decreased. Ribs are steady. Bellies are steady and market has settled. Trim is steady to higher for supply.

Poultry

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Bigger birds, better hatchability, and larger egg sets are allowing extra supply on the market, especially in the boneless market. Tenders and breasts are seeing increased supply on all sizes. Wings are seeing extra availability on all sizes. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly balanced.

Seafood

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Port Strike on the East and Gulf coast began Tuesday of this week. The impact is being assessed in the seafood sector, but the depth of the effects will be dynamic pending the length of the strike.

 

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Freshly Picked, September 30, 2024

Alerts & What’s Trending

Produce

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Hurricane Helene, unfavorable weather patterns in the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala, and insect pressure in California are affecting multiple commodities. These issues have led to continued higher market prices and lower overall yields.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures traded higher with reports of very tight stocks with good biofuel demand. Canola has moved higher with speculative trading. Palm continues to move higher and is pressuring soybean oil. Olive oil has flattened as oil stocks are poor and demand has increased with the lower market.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are down this week. California and Northwest markets are down. After a 55% drop over the past four weeks, breaking stock values appear to have hit a point of stabilization. The Block is decreasing & Barrel are increasing. Barrel hit a record high and the spread between barrel and Block has widened. Butter is down.

Beef

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Packers reduced harvest late last week. Ribs continue to trade slightly higher supported by holiday bookings. In the loin complex, Strips appear to have found a floor, while tenderloins are trading higher. The chuck and round complexes are encountering resistance. Grinds continue to offer opportunity to buyers, although reduced harvest could limit availability.

Pork

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Butts both Bone-in and boneless are steady. Bone-in loins were softer due to increased supply on the spot market. Light trade activity is noted again in St. Louis and back ribs so called sideways, whereas spareribs are stead. Bellies are settling, supply and demand is mixed but trading in established price levels. Trim is steady to higher for supply.

Poultry

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Bigger birds, better hatchability, and larger egg sets are allowing extra supply on the market, especially in the boneless market. Tenders and breasts are seeing increased supply on all sizes. Wings are seeing extra availability on all sizes. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly balanced.

Seafood

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The frozen tilapia market is highly unsettled with the news of a strong typhoon hitting several areas in both China and Vietnam. Prices of imported shrimp are also increasing due to import cost increases. Octopus market continues to firm up due to increased demand in Europe and the U.S. and decreased raw material availability.

 

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Freshly Picked, September 23, 2024

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Produce

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Tropical storm Francine, unfavorable weather patterns in the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala, and insect pressure in California are affecting multiple commodities. These issues have led to continued higher market prices and lower overall yields. The weather in the Salinas Valley is gradually becoming cooler. Recent warm rains have created conditions conducive to mildew, prompting growers to implement all possible mitigation strategies.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures moved lower approximately 2% last week as stocks are improving. Helping push soybean oil down is the heavy crushing currently taking place for meal. However, very dry weather in Ohio and drought in South America has traders concerned, which is supporting soybean oil. Canola is expected to move lower.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are down this week. California and Northwest markets are down. The Block & Barrel are increasing. CME spot cheese prices rallied up to new 12-month highs this week. Butter is flat.

Beef

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Packers are in a volume driven market. Ribs and tenders continue to trade steady while upper 2/3 graded product continues to support most of the demand. In the loin complex, Ch & Sel grade continue to struggle, while upper 2/3 seems to have found a floor for now. The chuck and round complexes are finding resistance. Grinds continue to trade lower as demand continues to lessen even more.

Pork

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Butts both Bone-in and boneless materials are supported. Loins are steady in the bone-in sector, while boneless are mixed due to some export demand. Ribs are mixed across types. Bellies remain unsettled as supply and demand is mixed. Trim markets are sideways and down a decent amount on the week.

Poultry

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Wings demand has begun to pick up as we enter football season butt here is availability. Tenders and breasts are seeing increased supply. Birds are getting bigger with cooler weather and more chickens are being hatched. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly even.

Seafood

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The frozen tilapia market is highly unsettled with the news of a strong typhoon hitting several areas in both China and Vietnam. Prices of imported shrimp are also increasing due to import cost increases. Octopus market continues to firm up due to increased demand in Europe and the U.S. and decreased raw material availability.

 

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Freshly Picked, September 16, 2024

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Produce

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Tropical storm Francine and adverse weather conditions in the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala are impacting various commodities. This situation is expected to result in prolonged elevated market prices and possible supply shortages. The temperatures in the Salinas Valley are beginning to drop.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures finished the week slightly down vs. the previous week. The weaker energy markets and some technical data appear to be the driving reasons for the decline. Stats Canada released its data for Canola, and the expected yield has increased for seed. Palm oil moved lower last week after several weeks of higher moves.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are down this week. California and Northwest markets are down. The Block & Barrel are increasing. U.S. cheese exports in July were up 10.1% YoY. Butter is down, after hitting new record highs in the middle of last week, EEX butter futures pulled back a bit.

Beef

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PRIME and upper 2/3rd graded product is limited. Ribs and tenders continue to hold pricing relatively steady to higher. As for the loin complex, struggles continue in the Ch and Sel arenas and buyers are hesitant to commit. The chuck and round complexes continue to perform well overall. Grinds continue to struggle to clean up inventories due to underwhelming demand.

Pork

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Butts both Bone-in and boneless materials are supported, with increased pulled pork interest. Loins are steady in the bone–in sector, while boneless are mixed due to some export demand. Ribs are mixed across types. Bellies remain unsettled as supply and demand is mixed. Trim markets 72’s are steady and 42’s have weaker supply.

Poultry

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Wings demand has begun to pick up as we enter football season but there is availability. Tenders continue to be mostly steady. Jumbo breasts are seeing some extra availability. Medium and small breasts continue to stay steady. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly balanced.

Seafood

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Commodity groundfish market continuing to firm up due to raw material availability. Prices of imported shrimp are also increasing due to import cost increases that are affecting all items coming into the country in containers. Container availability is causing the most recent incremental increase.

 

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Freshly Picked, September 9, 2024

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Produce

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Unfavorable weather patterns across the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala are affecting multiple commodities, leading to anticipated sustained high market prices and potential supply shortages. The Salinas Valley is experiencing warmer weather than typical for this time of year.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures moved higher last week. The move looked to be technical in nature, and we saw traders rolling their September futures to October futures. The Canadian rail strike seems to be at an end and weather is good on the Canadian prairies for the Canola crop. Palm oil moved higher with lower palm production.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are down this week except for Mediums are up. The Block is increasing & Barrel are decreasing. With U.S. cheese stocks down significantly YoY and cheese prices in Europe spiking, the risk is to the upside for CME cheese. Butter is up with Q3/Q4 stocks/use ratios for Europe are record tight.

Beef

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Early reports show sales were less than expected as poor weather conditions impacted holiday sales. Limited harvest have led to limited supply on thin meats, PRIME, and upper 2/3rd graded cattle. Ribs and tenders are limited. The chuck and round complexes continue to perform well. Grinds are still trading slightly lower as demand is underwhelming.

Pork

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Butts both Bone–in and boneless materials are supported, with increased export interest. Loins are steady in the bone–in sector, while boneless are mixed due to some export demand. Ribs are mixed across types. Spareribs are unsettled, St. Louis are steady & Back ribs are steady due to light trade activity. Bellies are unsettled as supply and demand is mixed. Trim markets have been steady.

Poultry

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Wings demand has begun to pick up as we enter football season but there is availability. Tenders continue to be mostly steady. Jumbo and medium breasts are seeing increased demand as further processors continue to pull heavy. Small breasts continue to stay steady. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly balanced.

Seafood

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Commodity groundfish market continuing to firm up due to raw material availability. Prices of imported shrimp are also increasing due to import cost increases that are affecting all items coming into the country in containers. Container availability is causing the most recent incremental increase.

 

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Freshly Picked, September 4, 2024

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Produce

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Tropical Storm Debby and unfavorable weather conditions in Mexico and Guatemala are impacting various commodities, resulting in expected prolonged elevated market prices and possible supply shortages. From the Salinas Valley, we are observing consistent supplies and quality across most products, although there are some exceptions.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures moved a little higher last week. Increased biodiesel demand, higher energy costs, and some tightness in soybean oil supply (mostly due to higher biodiesel demand). The Canadian rail strike had begun, was ended, began again, and ended, so for now, Canola is flowing.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are up this week. California and Northwest markets are down except for Medium which is up. The strong demand from both retail and foodservice outlets emphasizes the widespread need for eggs across the market. The Block & Barrel are increasing. EU cheese/ whey looks undervalued relative to butter/SMP.

Beef

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Heading into a holiday, supply levels are ample. Ribs and tenders are attracting interest, leading to packers raising or holding price offerings. Loin and top sirloin, pricing continues to be softer. The chuck and round complexes continue to perform well. Grinds continue limited and packers have moved pricing slightly higher.

Pork

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Butts are steady with moderate pulled pork demand. Bone-in and boneless materials have seen a bit of support for Labor Day. Loins are steady–domestic buying has slowed, however export channels are strong. Ribs are mostly steady. A softer tone was present in bellies this week as supply is up and bacon processing has slowed down. Trim markets have softened, supply is more steady.

Poultry

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Wings demand has begun to pick up as we near football season. Tenders continue to be mostly steady. Jumbo and medium breasts are seeing increased demand as further processors continue to pull heavy. Small breasts continue to stay steady. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly balanced.

Seafood

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Shrimp prices are gaining strength; the Alaska Gold King Crab season has kicked off while the Red King Crab season remains closed. Lakefish is now transitioning to a mix of fresh and refreshed products available due to warming trends in the lakes.

 

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Freshly Picked, August 26, 2024

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Produce

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Tropical Storm Debby and adverse weather conditions in Mexico and Guatemala are affecting multiple commodities, leading to anticipated extended high market prices and potential supply shortages. The weather conditions in Salinas are favorable, and although a few commodities are experiencing challenges, we are observing consistent supplies and quality.

Grains

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Soybean oil futures continued lower last week. US beans and South American beans are parity for pricing, so they are very competitive. Despite the much lower price, soybean oil stocks are tight as biodiesel producers are buying it up. Canada is about to have a rail strike causing problems for Canola. Palm oil has remained flat.

Dairy

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Shell egg markets are up this week. California and Northwest markets are up. The Block & Barrel are increasing. Butter is up.

Beef

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The market continues to be uneventful. Middle meat inventories continue to be mixed, w/ PRIME & upper 2/3 limited by smaller harvest, while choice grade continues to build. The chuck and round complexes continue to perform well overall. Inside round are starting to slow. Grinds continue steady and packers look toward Labor Day demand for a lift at the end of month.

Pork

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Butts market is unsettled. Bone-in and boneless materials are expected to continue to trade at current levels. Loins are steady. Ribs are down again this week, supply is static, and demand continues to be soft post July. Bellies are unsettled. Trim softened up on the week after the last few weeks of rising markets- 42’s are up, 72’s are down on the week.

Poultry

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Wings demand has begun to pick up as we near football season. Tenders continue to be mostly steady. Jumbo breasts are seeing increased demand as further processors continue to pull heavy. Small breasts continue to stay steady. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly balanced.

Seafood

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Shrimp prices are gaining strength; the Alaska Gold King Crab season has kicked off while the Red King Crab season remains closed. Lakefish is now transitioning to a mix of fresh and refreshed products available due to warming trends in the lakes.