Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Struggling to Manage Multiple Restaurant P&Ls? Here’s a Simple Solution.
• Can You Grow and Stay Profitable? Here’s How Emerging Brands Do It.
• How Can Multi-Unit Operators Grow Without Sacrificing Profitability?

Produce

Iceberg lettuce pricing jumped back to $25.49/carton on lighter weights and disease pressure in the West, reversing the recent cooldown from July’s peak. If supply issues persist, iceberg could approach $35/carton this fall. In contrast, 48-count Hass avocados continued their decline, hitting the lowest level since January 2024 despite seasonal shifts and tariff uncertainty.

Outlook: Lettuce remains a risk category for Q3–Q4, and large-volume buyers may need to explore alternative greens or diversify sourcing. Avocado costs should remain favorable into year-end, creating margin opportunities for concepts using guacamole or fresh slices.

Grains

Grain markets steadied after weeks of weakness, supported by strong demand and expectations for a larger U.S. corn yield—now projected at 184 bu/acre. Soymeal posted moderate gains, while wheat and corn saw minor increases. Traders remain cautious ahead of the August WASDE report.

Outlook: Larger yield projections could cap price increases, but global demand may keep corn supported above $4/bushel. Operators with grain-dependent menu items should look for contracting opportunities in the near term to lock in favorable pricing.

Dairy

Cheese led dairy market gains, with CME blocks up $0.15/lb and barrels up $0.12/lb. Butter prices fell on lighter retail demand, but tighter cream supplies added upward pressure on cream pricing. Milk production remains seasonally low but adequate for processing needs. Cheese production is steady to strong nationwide, supported by foodservice demand.

Outlook: Steady demand from restaurants should help keep cheese pricing firm. Multi-unit operators should plan for stable-to-slightly higher cheese costs into early fall and monitor cream pricing for potential downstream butter cost impacts.

Beef

Beef prices surged last week as operators stocked up ahead of Labor Day. Choice cutout climbed 5% to $378.94/cwt, driven by strong rib and tenderloin demand. While strips slipped slightly, chuck and round cuts saw firm gains. Ground beef and trim also rose, with 50% trim up $0.25 to $2.02/lb.

Outlook: Short-term demand is expected to stay elevated into the holiday window, with some early buying for year-end holiday menus already occurring. Large-scale operators should anticipate firm prices through September, especially for premium and end cuts.

Pork

Pork cutout rose 2% to $116.33/cwt, led by strength in ribs, loins, and bellies. Butts and hams softened slightly, and tenderloins eased by $0.10/lb. The belly primal posted a notable 6% gain, impacting food cost planning for breakfast and sandwich menus. Futures and cash hog prices were mixed.

Outlook: Prices could trend mixed-to-lower in the next month as summer demand tapers off. Multi-unit buyers should watch belly and rib markets closely for potential relief before holiday menu planning begins.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest was 170.1M head last week, down 1% from the prior week but nearly 2% above last year. Whole birds softened slightly, and white meat pricing was mixed—boneless/skinless breasts rose to $1.95/lb, tenderloins were flat, and wings inched up to $1.72/lb. Thigh meat eased, while turkey pricing jumped sharply, led by a 12% increase in boneless breasts. Egg prices fell nearly 3%.

Outlook: Seasonal price declines are slowing, but potential tariffs could dampen exports, influencing supply chain dynamics for large buyers. White meat demand remains steady due to cost efficiency, making it a strategic protein for menu stability. Prices are expected to stay flat to slightly lower until retail promotions resume in the fall.

Seafood

Cod prices fell over 12% m/m, hitting the $3.80/lb target ahead of schedule after months of steady declines. Import volumes remain light, which could help stabilize the market after a volatile first half of 2025.

Outlook: Pricing is likely to hold near current levels into year-end, but volatility risk remains. Large-scale buyers may consider forward-buying or diversifying whitefish supply to hedge against unexpected swings.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Are Hidden Costs Eating Into Your Restaurant Margins?
• Running Multiple Restaurants? We’ll Help You Put the Pieces Together
• Still Using Cost-Plus Pricing? You Could Be Leaving Money on the Table

Produce

Potato prices held flat, but the pre-harvest rally may be topping out. Iceberg lettuce took a nosedive—down nearly 37%—while avocados and tomatoes behaved as expected. No major supply concerns yet.

Outlook: Lettuce pricing should stabilize near its short-term floor. Avocados might bump up briefly in early August but should trend lower overall. Expect a quiet few weeks before produce pricing heats up again in late Q3.

Grains

Grain prices were down again. The rising dollar and falling soybean prices dragged the market lower—even soybean oil dipped despite improved biofuel demand.

Outlook: SBO demand for biofuels is recovering, but not enough to offset broader market weakness. Expect continued pressure unless grain exports surge or weather events shake things up.

Dairy

Cheese block and barrel prices both rose slightly, while butter edged up $0.01/lb. Milk output is lighter in hot regions, but manufacturers are keeping up with contracted demand. Butter exports remain strong thanks to competitive pricing.

Outlook: Cheese and butter markets look steady for now. Watch for heat-related dips in milk supply to influence short-term pricing, but no dramatic swings expected.

Beef

Cattle prices nudged up, but the beef cutout fell again—down over $30/cwt in a month. Ribs and tenderloins held firm, while most loin cuts and grinds softened. Trim prices dropped, especially the 50% lean variety.

Outlook: Most beef cuts have likely hit their seasonal highs. Rib and end cuts may firm up slightly, but don’t expect a major rebound across the board.

Pork

Pork prices slipped last week, with a 5% drop in the cutout. Loins, ribs, and bellies were mostly down, while tenderloins and hams bucked the trend with modest gains. Trims held steady or ticked down slightly.

Outlook: Lean hog prices are expected to fall in line with futures. Overall pork values will likely stay mixed to lower, especially with tariff uncertainty in the mix.

Poultry

Chicken prices inched up last week, with boneless breasts finally rising after 8 straight weeks of declines. Wings climbed again and are now up 25% month-over-month. Thigh meat saw mixed movement, while turkey was all over the place—boneless up, whole birds down. Egg prices also ticked up.

Outlook: The typical summer slowdown in chicken pricing is cooling off. But with tariffs looming, exports might dip. Expect flat to lower prices until fall promotions start rolling.

Seafood

Fresh Atlantic salmon continues its downward correction, now sitting 4.3% below the five-year average. Prices have dropped sharply since March but are finally stabilizing.

Outlook: The steep decline is likely behind us. Prices will keep sliding through fall, but at a slower pace. Still a good time to lean into salmon if it fits your menu.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Growing Fast? Here’s How to Stay Profitable
• Regional Sourcing, National Impact: Smarter Supply for Multi-Unit Brands
• Turn Sustainability into Savings: 3 Easy Wins for Your Concept

Produce

Tomatoes and lettuce are the two key watch items. Roma prices are stabilizing after a five-week climb but may spike again due to possible tariffs on Mexican imports. Iceberg lettuce prices dropped nearly 15% w/w. Avocados are softening, but typical August supply concerns may reverse that trend short term. Potatoes are following their usual slow climb ahead of harvest.

Outlook: Q4 produce costs could rise sharply due to tariffs and seasonal transitions. Monitor tomato and avocado imports closely and consider diversifying sourcing. Lock in favorable lettuce pricing now before another upward trend begins.

Grains

Corn dropped 2.1% w/w despite heat in the Corn Belt. Yields are still rated strong—best since 2017—so traders aren’t reacting to weather just yet. Export demand is solid, but not moving the market. Soybean oil saw a modest gain.

Outlook: Grain markets are holding steady for now. Keep an eye on USDA crop condition reports—any deterioration could move pricing. Maintain flexible coverage on key ingredients like corn and soybean oil to navigate potential volatility.

Dairy

Cheese prices were stable with strong export demand. Butter fell $0.11/lb but remains historically high. Spot milk availability is tighter in some areas, though contracted supply remains steady. Retail butter demand is stronger than foodservice.

Outlook: Cheese demand is steady, and pricing should remain favorable. Butter may see short-term softness, but margins remain tight. Continue to evaluate forward contracts and usage forecasts for Q4 to optimize dairy spend.

Beef

Live cattle futures climbed 1%, but wholesale beef prices are beginning to cool. Choice and select cutouts declined slightly, led by weaker loin prices. Rib meat remains elevated, and tenderloins ticked slightly higher. Ground beef and trim markets saw another drop—81% ground beef now at $3.55/lb.

Outlook: The market appears to be past peak pricing for most cuts. Expect moderate softening in loins and ground beef, while ribs and end cuts may hold or climb slightly. Evaluate shifting promotional focus toward value cuts as the market recalibrates.

Pork

Cutout values rose 1% w/w, driven by hams and bellies. However, most primals—including loins, ribs, and butts—were lower. Pork tenderloins and boneless butts saw modest declines. Spareribs fell 5%, and bone-in butts are holding near recent lows.

Outlook: Lean hog prices are creeping upward, but most cuts should remain manageable through August. Expect hams to increase as holiday buying begins. Consider pre-booking ham needs to mitigate Q4 price spikes, and reassess belly positions based on volatility.

Poultry

Chicken harvest volumes are up 3.6% YoY, leading to lower pricing across most categories. White meat is down again—boneless/skinless breasts fell to $1.86/lb (down 22% m/m), while wings rose for the eighth straight week, now up 28% m/m. Thigh meat and tenderloins are showing price softness. On the turkey side, prices are trending higher, with boneless breasts up nearly 5%.

Outlook: Expect poultry prices to remain soft through August due to seasonal dips and export tariff pressures. White meat demand should remain stable, while wings and turkey could trend higher. Consider locking in favorable breast and thigh pricing before fall promotions lift the market.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna pricing dropped another 8.2% in May, following a 26.7% decline in April—now at its lowest point in over 14 years. Import levels remain normal but are expected to taper through fall, which could pressure prices upward.

Outlook: We’re likely at the floor for yellowfin tuna. Now is a strategic time to secure volume pricing before seasonal uptrends take hold in late Q3. Review seafood menus and prep volumes accordingly.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Opening More Locations? Scale Without Losing Control
• Growing Fast? Don’t Let Dollars Slip Through the Cracks
• Too Many Tools, Not Enough Time? Simplify Your Stack

Produce

Avocados dropped to a new YTD low ($45/carton), but supply risks may trigger a reversal soon. Iceberg lettuce and roma tomatoes posted weekly gains, while potatoes continued their upward climb.

Outlook: Produce markets remain stable but are entering a period of potential volatility. Expect seasonal increases in lettuce and tomatoes by September, and consider locking in pricing where possible.

Grains

Grain markets were relatively inactive, except for soybeans, which rebounded nearly 3% w/w after a bullish June crush report and renewed biofuel demand speculation.

Outlook: Soybeans remain susceptible to further price volatility due to policy speculation and export dynamics. Broader grain pricing should remain steady for the near term.

Dairy

Dairy prices edged down across the board. Butter dropped to $2.53/lb, while block and barrel cheese slipped by $0.05 and $0.06 respectively. Tight milk supplies in heat-impacted regions are prompting more spot market activity.

Outlook: Marginal price dips are likely to continue, though supply constraints could lead to regional cost variability. Monitor cream and milk inputs for potential disruption in dairy-heavy concepts.

Beef

Despite a 2% rise in live cattle futures, both choice and select beef cutouts declined. High-value primals like ribeyes saw modest gains, while loins, rounds, and chucks trended lower. Trim was mixed—50% lean trim fell, while 90% lean edged up.

Outlook: With subprimal values sliding and packer margins tightening, expect harvest reductions that could stabilize or slightly lift cattle prices. Multi-unit operators should plan for softer beef pricing but tighter supply control in the short term.

Pork

Hog futures declined, but the pork cutout rose 2% on the strength of hams, loins, and bellies. Butts and ribs weakened, and pork butt exports slowed considerably. Trim values continued upward momentum.

Outlook: Pricing will remain mixed. Hams are expected to firm up ahead of holiday demand, but other cuts may face downward pressure. Operators should monitor tariff volatility and shifting export demand closely.

Poultry

USDA harvest numbers held steady year-over-year, but most wholesale chicken prices declined last week. Boneless/skinless breasts fell to $1.89/lb and are now down 28% month-over-month. Wings rose for the seventh consecutive week to $1.54/lb, while thigh meat prices were mixed. Egg prices increased 4% w/w.

Outlook: A seasonal slowdown and new tariff headwinds could keep poultry prices soft through early fall. White meat remains a strong value-driven menu anchor across units.

Seafood

Cod and tilapia are both trending lower following months of inflated pricing. Cod dropped over 10% month-over-month, while tilapia is nearing seasonal averages.

Outlook: Expect additional softening in cod pricing before it stabilizes. These downward shifts may create smart substitution opportunities across protein categories for cost-effective LTOs or menu innovation.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• 6 Reasons Consolidated Concepts Is the Partner Your Growing Brand Needs
• Managing Multiple Restaurant Locations Just Got a Whole Lot Easier
• Still Unsure About GPOs? Let’s Bust the Myths.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce prices have surged, nearly tripling since mid-June due to tightening supplies—an unusual move for this time of year. Potato prices are also climbing in advance of the new crop, with 60- and 70-count Idaho varieties up nearly 40% m/m.

Outlook: Expect produce markets to remain highly volatile through the fall, particularly for lettuce and potatoes. Multi-unit operators should evaluate alternative SKUs and prep solutions to maintain consistency and margins.

Grains

Corn prices continued to fall last week, despite strong U.S. export performance. Optimism around new trade deals didn’t materialize, and expectations for record-breaking crops in both the U.S. and Brazil continue to weigh heavily on the market.

Outlook: The current supply outlook will likely keep grain prices suppressed in the near term. Strategic procurement and hedging discussions may be beneficial heading into Q3.

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices were mostly flat last week. Domestic demand remains steady, though summer heat is tightening milk supply in some regions, pushing cheesemakers to secure additional volumes via the spot market.

Outlook: The dairy market remains steady but sensitive to regional production shifts. Operators should watch for any disruptions that could impact pricing or availability, especially in cheese-heavy menu categories.

Beef

Both choice and select cutouts declined, with mixed movement across primals—striploins fell while tenderloins and shortloins edged higher. Ground beef eased slightly, and 50% trim reached a new all-time high. Volatility remains across middle meats and trimmings.

Outlook: Despite a modest recovery in live cattle, cutout values remain under pressure. Operators should expect softer beef pricing in the short term as packers manage supply and seasonal demand shifts normalize.

Pork

The pork cutout rebounded 3% after the previous week’s sharp drop, led by strong belly and ham markets. Loins and tenderloins held steady, but pork butts and ribs weakened, with export sales for butts falling below expectations.

Outlook: Pork prices are likely to trend downward as global trade uncertainty and tariff speculation contribute to instability. Monitor primals closely for spot buying opportunities.

Poultry

Boneless skinless breast prices dropped sharply last week, now down 30% month-over-month, while wings rose slightly but remain well below last year’s levels. Thigh meat and drumsticks saw little movement, though boneless thigh meat is still up significantly year-over-year. Turkey prices rose, with breasts up 12% and whole birds up 6%.

Outlook: Operators should prepare for a typical seasonal dip in chicken prices, but increased harvest volumes and potential tariff challenges could accelerate the decline. White meat demand is expected to remain resilient due to its cost-effectiveness.

Seafood

Seafood prices dropped across key categories last month, with frozen tilapia down 12%. The decline followed months of inflated pricing and now places tilapia below anticipated late-summer levels. A lack of seasonal import volume increases is also shaping this trend.

Outlook: As import levels normalize, prices are expected to stabilize. Consider leveraging current softness in pricing for upcoming LTOs or protein swaps on core items.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• The Hidden Costs Chipping Away at Your Margins—And How to Stop Them
• Short on Staff? Here’s How to Run Leaner, Smarter, and More Profitably
• Deal the Winning Hand: 52 Ways to Unlock Serious Foodservice Value

Produce

Leafy greens, broccoli, cauliflower, and Brussels sprouts are seeing higher prices due to heat and weather impacts. Bell peppers, squash, and asparagus are also tightening—particularly color varieties. Tomatoes, celery, and cucumbers are more stable. Avocados and lemons remain tight, while oranges and limes are stable but under strong demand. Grapes are transitioning to California with green varieties priced highest. Multi-units should focus on spec compliance and category substitution to protect margins.

Grains

Soybean oil saw a sharp dip last week, but market volatility continues due to global tensions and policy shifts. Canola and palm oils also eased. If your units rely on large-volume fryers, consider forward buying or alternate oil blends to hedge against price spikes.

Dairy

Eggs, cheese blocks, and butter are trending lower, offering temporary relief. Cream remains abundant. For concepts using dairy across LTOs or dessert programs, it’s a good time to evaluate pricing resets or extended contracts.

Beef

A potential strike at a major beef plant was avoided, but tight supply continues to drive pricing steady to higher. Strips and top butts are moving faster than ribs, and end cuts are firming due to lean trim demand. If beef is a menu driver across locations, consider tightening specs or optimizing portioning.

Pork

Post-holiday, pork markets softened—especially butts, ribs, and bellies, though the latter remains volatile. Loins are stable, and trim remains strong. Multi-unit operators may want to lock in favorable pricing while the market is down.

Poultry

Tenders remain constrained, with no relief expected this summer. Wing demand is up, tightening supply. Breasts, thighs, and leg meat have stabilized, offering reliable options for center-of-plate value. This is a good time to audit SKUs and assess alternates across locations.

Seafood

Seasonal seafood is front and center. Concepts looking to refresh summer menus can turn to wild salmon, tuna, snapper, swordfish, and lake fish for profitable and high-demand features. Consider cross-utilizing proteins across locations for consistency and waste reduction.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Juggling Locations? Consolidated Concepts Puts Your Multi-Unit Chaos on Cruise Control
• Scale Smarter, Not Costlier: Your Profit-Focused Roadmap to 2025 Growth
• Free Intel, Big Impact: Supply-Chain Insights That Give Chains a Competitive Edge

Produce

Avocados dropped 18 % to fresh YTD lows, slipping below 2024 levels. Iceberg lettuce jumped 35 % yet remains seasonally normal, and Idaho russets began their customary pre-harvest climb. Virus chatter in Western lettuce is on the radar but hasn’t shifted supply flows.

Outlook: Avocado values should stay favorable through August—good window for promotions. Lettuce likely flat until September lift; potatoes may add $1-$2/carton by mid-July. Stagger contracts to ride the avocado trough while capping potato upside.

Grains

Winter wheat erased geopolitical gains; soy oil followed crude lower despite bullish biofuel policy chatter. Traders brace for acreage & stocks data that could swing the complex.

Outlook: Near-term volatility high—basis contracts or cost-plus flour deals are prudent. Longer-term, soy oil’s story is still upward; evaluate futures or supplier caps for fryer oil heading into Q4.

Dairy

Butter nudged to $2.54/lb on solid export pull; cheese blocks eased to $1.61/lb as retail features cooled. Milk production is ebbing but still adequate; cream tightness in parts of the West could keep butter bid.

Outlook: Butter remains supported—forward cover through Q3 if pastries or sauces are core. Cheese sits in a holding pattern; consider short-term contracts and pivot to blends if prices rebound with back-to-school demand.

Beef

Live cattle futures lost 1.5 % but the choice cutout advanced to $395/cwt on record trim prices (50 % trim at $2.34/lb). Middle meats cooled slightly, and packers are signaling harvest cutbacks to manage cash cattle. End-cut values split, showing no broad weakness.

Outlook: Market should crest next week before typical mid-July slip; secure ground beef while still climbing, but delay heavy rib/loin buys until signs of that peak emerge. Multi-unit groups can leverage volume to negotiate formula pricing tied to boxed-beef averages instead of spot.

Pork

The composite cutout rose another 1 % (14 % MTD) as bellies (+4 %) and tenderloins firmed, while trims lost steam and export butt sales dried up. Futures and cash prices are decoupling—early evidence the rally is tiring.

Outlook: Expect a soft pullback in July; tariff clarity after the 90-day pause will set Q3 direction. Hedge belly needs now if bacon drives traffic, but leave flex in loin programs to capture the anticipated dip.

Poultry

Chicken harvests ran 3.6 % above last year, holding whole-bird pricing steady while boneless/skinless breasts slid to $2.39/lb (-14 % m/m) and wings lifted modestly to $1.26/lb—still half of 2024’s cost. Thigh meat retreated on light dark-meat demand; egg values inched 1 % higher after May’s correction. Supply remains balanced, but limited harvest growth is preventing oversupply.

Outlook: Seasonal softening should continue into late summer, yet value-driven retail ads will keep white meat firm. Consider locking in breast meat on short-term contracts and weighting menus toward wings while they’re historically cheap.

Seafood

Frozen cod filets hit a record $4.89/lb, extending a five-month rally and standing 27 % over last year. Historical patterns say April usually caps out, suggesting upside exhaustion.

Outlook: Prices should drift lower as imports rebuild, but budget a gradual decline—not a cliff. Hold existing inventory, defer large buys until late Q3, and diversify menus with lower-cost whitefish to protect basket margins.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Are Hidden Costs Draining Your Profit? Here’s What to Do About It
• Need More Staff… or Just a Smarter Strategy?
• Ready to Grow Without Wasting Money? Read This First

Produce

Avocados ended their 11-week price drop with a slight uptick. Roma tomatoes continued their descent but at a slower pace. Prices for most other core items held relatively steady.

Outlook: Avocados are entering their most volatile seasonal window. Consider forward contracts or price protections to avoid sharp spot market increases in July and August. Tomato pricing may see short-term stabilization, but long-term relief isn’t expected until September.

Grains

Grain markets paused last week. Wheat pricing climbed due to harvest delays and global unrest, but the rally appears short-lived. U.S. winter wheat harvest is far behind schedule, particularly in Oklahoma and Illinois.

Outlook: Expect wheat prices to correct as weather improves and harvest resumes. Monitor supplier updates closely and reassess futures-based procurement strategies heading into Q3.

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices softened slightly last week, with CME blocks and barrels both at $1.69/lb. Butter demand remains strong domestically and abroad. Milk production is adequate despite regional tightening.

Outlook: Watch for modest pressure on dairy through summer due to tight cream supplies and sustained retail demand. Multi-unit operators should explore volume leverage on cheese and butter contracts now to prepare for potential Q3 firming.

Beef

Beef cutouts climbed sharply, with Choice up 4% and Select up 3%. Key cuts like tenderloins, striploins, and top sirloins hit or approached record highs. Ground beef also surged, with 50% trim hitting a new record at $2.00/lb. Cattle futures dipped slightly, but pricing strength persisted across primals and grinds.

Outlook: With grilling season in full swing, operators should anticipate elevated pricing on both premium and value cuts through the July 4th holiday. Strategic sourcing on end cuts and ground beef will be key. Consider locking in volume pricing where possible and lean on supplier partners to identify cost-effective substitutes.

Pork

The pork complex continued to climb, with the overall cutout up 4% week-over-week and nearly 19% month-over-month. Bellies, ribs, butts, and hams all moved higher, while boneless loins remained flat. Export activity spiked, especially for pork butts.

Outlook: This may be the last opportunity for favorable pork pricing before late fall. Strong seasonal demand and tightening availability could put upward pressure on key cuts. Multi-unit concepts should align purchasing timelines across locations to lock in pricing ahead of Independence Day volume surges.

Poultry

Weekly chicken harvests rose 1.4% YoY. Boneless breasts dropped $0.04 to $2.65/lb, while tenderloins increased $0.06 to $2.59/lb. Wing prices rose slightly but remain well below historical norms. Thigh meat prices were steady, with B/S thighs up 31% YoY. Turkey breasts rose 6% week-over-week. Egg prices ticked up 1% but are still down 20% month-over-month.

Outlook: While overall poultry markets are entering a typical seasonal decline, expect continued demand pressure on white meat. Multi-unit operators should evaluate pre-orders and contract positions on tenderloins and thighs to manage margin exposure, especially as summer menus lean heavier on chicken.

Seafood

Salmon prices declined 6.9% m/m—finally returning to seasonal norms after months of elevated costs. The early downturn in April marked a turning point in the previously inflated market.

Outlook: Pricing should ease further into Q3. This is an ideal time for multi-unit menus to reintroduce or promote salmon offerings, particularly as margins improve. Consider locking in forward buys before fall volatility begins.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• This Is What Multi-Unit Success Looks Like (And How to Get It)
• Running Multiple Restaurants Shouldn’t Feel Impossible
• Growing Fast? Here’s How to Keep Profits from Slipping Through the Cracks

Produce

Avocados paused their recent slide, but pricing still trends downward long-term. Roma tomatoes continue to correct and may rebound soon. Lettuce remains stable for now but could see pressure from emerging crop disease issues.

Outlook: Avocado and tomato pricing remain favorable near term. Watch lettuce closely, as disease-driven supply disruption could create a short-term price spike.

Grains

Soybean oil rallied sharply at the end of the week following the EPA’s favorable 2026–2027 RVO announcement, boosting long-term biofuel demand expectations.

Outlook: Expect continued strength in soybean oil markets as biofuel policy and supply chain dynamics create bullish momentum through the second half of the year.

Dairy

CME block and barrel cheese both dipped slightly, while butter prices held steady. Inventories are building, but cheese demand remains consistent from both retail and foodservice.

Outlook: Cheese and butter markets should remain relatively stable, though international butter demand could create upward pressure later in the season.

Beef

Choice and select cutouts moved higher again last week, driven by stronger pricing across ribs, loins, and end cuts. Ground beef and trim prices also rose, indicating tightening supply.

Outlook: With cattle futures climbing and July 4th demand building, beef markets should continue to strengthen in the short term before stabilizing post-holiday.

Pork

Primal markets surged across the board—bellies rose 9%, hams 8%, and pork butts saw a 6% jump. Trims also moved up, reflecting solid domestic demand despite slower export activity.

Outlook: Pork prices are on an upswing that’s likely to continue into July. Operators should prepare for elevated costs and secure volume early where possible.

Poultry

Boneless/skinless breast prices fell $0.09/lb to $2.69, while tenderloins rose slightly to $2.53/lb. Wings ticked up to $1.19/lb but remain significantly lower year-over-year. Thigh meat is still elevated, up 33% y/y.

Outlook: Expect gradual seasonal softening, but supply constraints and sustained demand from foodservice will likely keep white meat prices relatively firm through summer.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna dropped 27% m/m to $3.85/lb—its lowest level in years. This dramatic pricing dip is unlikely to last, as importers adjust to market conditions.

Outlook: Yellowfin pricing likely bottomed out and should trend upward over the next few months. Consider locking in value now for future needs.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Cut Costs and Boost Efficiency—Without Hiring More Staff.
• Grow Your Restaurant Chain While Protecting Your Bottom Line.
• Automate Tip Management to Save Hours and Reduce Risk.

Produce

Roma tomato prices fell another 15% to $9.48/cs, now more than 33% off recent highs. Iceberg lettuce and avocados remain stable and are approaching their lowest points of the year. Transitions have gone smoothly with no major disruptions.

Outlook: Produce pricing is expected to stabilize, offering a window to optimize category spend. Review contracts and buying behaviors to take advantage of these lows.

Grains

Spring wheat continues to drive headlines amid global supply challenges, while improved U.S. winter wheat crop ratings have tempered domestic prices. Export activity remained moderate last week.

Outlook: Grains may stay under slight downward pressure. Operators should use this time to revisit long-term contracts and hedge against future volatility.

Dairy

Butter rose $0.13 to $2.49/lb, while cheese remained unchanged. Strong retail promotions and growing milk availability continue to support dairy production. Nonfat dry milk also gained to $1.29/lb.

Outlook: Expect some upward movement in butter and milk costs. Multi-unit operators should track regional pricing and align purchasing accordingly.

Beef

Despite rib segments falling, the beef market overall pushed higher with striploins reaching $11.84/lb and ground beef steady at $3.63/lb. Futures rose 3.5% on tighter supply expectations, and premium loin cuts showed notable strength.

Outlook: Market pressure will likely keep beef prices elevated. Now’s the time to review contracts and evaluate substitution opportunities for high-cost cuts.

Pork

Pork cutout values rose 3% to $108.12/cwt, with strong gains in bellies, ribs, and tenderloins. Bellies jumped to $1.98/lb while pork butts held strong. Export sales dipped, but domestic demand continues to lead.

Outlook: Pork prices are trending up through July. Multi-unit teams should review menu engineering and consider locking in pricing where volume is high.

Poultry

Chicken pricing remained firm last week, with boneless breasts at $2.77/lb and tenderloins jumping to $2.50/lb, supported by a 12% increase in retail ads. Boneless thigh meat continued its climb, now up 34% y/y. Harvest volumes increased 2.5% w/w, giving operators some breathing room.

Outlook: White and dark meat demand is holding strong. Multi-unit operators should maintain current poultry strategies while monitoring weekly shifts in tenderloin and thigh pricing.

Seafood

Snow crab prices pulled back 2.9% month-over-month following February’s spike. Import volumes are recovering, and the market is showing signs of stabilizing ahead of the summer peak season.

Outlook: Seafood costs are cooling, especially in crab. Use this pricing window to enhance premium offerings without sacrificing profitability.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE