Freshly Picked Insights

• Struggling with Costs and Labor? Here’s Your Fix.
• Short on Staff? Let Strategy Do the Heavy Lifting
• Ingredient Trends That Actually Make Operational Sense

Produce

A quiet week overall. Lettuce and tomatoes gave up recent gains, but no major red flags ahead. Hass avocados are trending down, now at a 9-week low, but real relief isn’t expected until July. Onions are holding steady above $5/sack but could firm up late May.

Outlook: Stable for now, but watch lettuce for potential volatility in May.

 

Grains

A mixed week. Soft red winter (Chicago) wheat rose 1.6%, but other wheats lagged behind. Soybean oil was the lone standout, showing strength amid overall market hesitation. Drought relief in Oklahoma could boost hard red winter yields, but concerns linger with 34% of the U.S. winter wheat crop still in drought conditions.

Outlook: Weather will be the wildcard — expect volatility tied to precipitation trends.

 

Dairy

Retail promotions and strong foodservice demand kept dairy prices moving modestly higher. Butter stayed flat at $2.34/lb, but cheese prices ticked up — both CME blocks and barrels hit $1.84/lb. Milk supply is rising, helping keep inventories healthy.

Outlook: Butter and cheese remain stable with slight upside. Expect continued inventory growth as milk production picks up.

 

Beef

Cattle futures surged 4% as tighter supplies support pricing. The choice cutout dipped 1% to $332.90/cwt while select was up 1% to $316.39/cwt. Chuck and round cuts weakened, with shoulder clods and chuck rolls falling 5–6%. Ribeyes and shortloins saw mixed trends.

Ground beef 81% dropped 9% to $2.74/lb. Lean trim prices diverged: 50% trim rose 4% to $1.23/lb, while 90% lean fell to $3.74/lb.

Outlook: Fewer cattle on the market means tighter supply and likely higher prices in coming weeks.

 

Pork

Pork prices were all over the board. Boneless loins dropped to $1.32/lb, but baby back ribs climbed to $2.88/lb. Butts and hams moved lower, while bellies surged 7% to $134.99/cwt. Export sales slowed, down 1.4 million pounds from the previous week.

Outlook: With 30% of U.S. pork heading overseas, upcoming tariffs or retaliatory measures could shake things up. Could mean volatility — or discounts — for domestic buyers.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvest rose 4.4% year-over-year, and white meat prices continue to climb. Boneless/skinless breasts jumped $0.13 to $2.65/lb and are now up 57% y/y. Tenderloins followed with a $0.10 gain. Thigh meat also saw solid increases, while wings and drumsticks stayed mostly flat. In turkey, boneless breasts edged up 1% but whole birds dropped nearly 6%.

Eggs hit peak demand during Easter, but with imports rising and demand easing, expect prices to cool off soon. The USDA shell egg index dipped 2% this week but remains 48% higher y/y.

Outlook: White meat demand is projected to remain strong, especially in foodservice and retail. Dark meat outlook is murkier, with tariffs and trade risks with China on the radar.

 

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna prices dropped 8.4% in March — a seasonal trend we’ve seen before. After peaking in January, tuna typically declines through late spring. We’re still sitting at elevated prices ($4.96/lb avg), but May data should reflect continued softness.

Outlook: Expect lower tuna prices through June before they begin to stabilize again.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Struggling with Costs and Labor? Here’s Your Fix.
• Short on Staff? Let Strategy Do the Heavy Lifting
• Ingredient Trends That Actually Make Operational Sense

 

Produce

Tomato and lettuce prices reversed course, trending slightly lower after recent surges—though supply concerns remain. Roma tomatoes may not settle until they hit $20/carton, and iceberg could still spike toward $30. Avocado prices dipped slightly but remain elevated, up over 60% y/y. Expect more movement in April pending tariff developments.

 

Grains

Corn and wheat held mostly flat thanks to early-week gains from USDA reports, but new tariff fears sparked a market-wide sell-off later in the week. Mexico was spared, keeping corn more stable, but tensions with major buyers like China and Japan could pressure prices going forward. Soybeans remain the weakest link due to lack of bullish fundamentals.

 

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices ticked slightly lower amid softening foodservice demand and fewer retail promos. Cheese blocks dropped to $1.62/lb, while barrels nudged up. Butter fell $0.05 to $2.33/lb. Milk output is increasing, inventories are growing, and the market remains steady with balanced demand.

 

Beef

Despite a dip in cattle futures, beef prices remain firm across premium cuts. Ribeyes and tenderloins surged again, with tenderloins up 6% to $14.55/lb. Ground beef and trim also climbed, suggesting strong seasonal demand. Chuck and round segments were more mixed. As grilling season heats up, beef is expected to retain price strength on the back of strong fundamentals.

 

Pork

Pork markets held steady with the cutout flat at $94.81/cwt. Loins and butts posted modest gains, while tenderloins and ribs softened. Belly prices continued to fall, now down 6% w/w. Export volumes rose, but ongoing tariffs from Mexico and China cast uncertainty. Volatility is expected, but domestic consumers could benefit from softening prices.

 

Poultry

Chicken breast prices surged again—now at $2.41/lb, up 57% year-over-year—while boneless thighs also rose to $1.76/lb. WOGs and foodservice bird sizes posted moderate gains, and after weeks of falling, wings finally saw a tiny uptick. Egg prices continue to slide, down another 3% w/w and over 50% m/m, as imports help stabilize supply ahead of Easter. Looking ahead, tariff-related uncertainty and flat demand may put downward pressure on wholesale chicken prices.

 

Seafood

Frozen snow crab surged 33% m/m in February to $10.24/lb—its highest since mid-2022—driven by tight imports. But this momentum likely won’t last, as demand and volume typically increase by late May and peak in summer. Relief isn’t expected until August.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Planning to Expand in 2025? Are You Set Up to Scale Profitably?
• Could Your Restaurant Chain Be Bleeding Money as You Grow?
• Are You Giving Your GMs the Tools to Truly Lead?

 

Produce

Tomatoes and lettuce took the spotlight—25 lb. large romas soared 44% w/w and are now up nearly 62% over two weeks, while 24-count iceberg prices rose as crop transitions continue. Relief isn’t expected until mid-April. Expect short-term spikes followed by stabilization as seasonal shifts settle.

 

Grains

Markets were subdued ahead of the USDA’s key planting and stock reports. Soybean oil bucked the trend, rising on strong export sales and renewed optimism around biofuel tax credit talks. Despite potentially bearish supply data, SBO futures may remain supported by policy developments and demand fundamentals.

 

Dairy

Retail promotions and export activity pushed dairy prices higher last week. Butter rose $0.07 to $2.37/lb, while cheese blocks and barrels climbed to $1.65 and $1.64/lb, respectively. Foodservice demand remains soft, but retail demand is steady. Milk production is trending up, helping stabilize supply.

 

Beef

Beef stayed strong with the April cattle contract holding at a record $209.25/cwt. Choice cutout values rose 3% to $335.72/cwt, with premium cuts like ribeyes and tenderloins up 4–11%. Ground beef jumped 4% to $2.83/lb, with strong out-front sales indicating more increases to come. As grilling season nears, high demand and tight supply are expected to keep prices elevated.

 

Pork

Pork cutout dropped 2% to $94.84/cwt amid lower production and rising tariff concerns. While butts and ribs showed some strength, the ham and belly primals declined, with bellies down 1% to $135.29/cwt. Export volume dropped sharply from the prior week. Continued uncertainty around international trade is expected to keep the pork market volatile with potential price benefits for U.S. consumers.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvest dipped 0.5% w/w but remained up 3.7% y/y. Breast prices surged again, up $0.12 to $2.30/lb, with boneless thigh meat also up $0.08 to $1.68/lb. Wings continued their sharp decline, down $0.08 to $1.44/lb. Egg prices dropped another 23% w/w as imports from Turkey and South Korea boost supply. Looking ahead, possible retaliatory tariffs could further increase domestic availability and push chicken prices lower.

 

Seafood

Shrimp and prawn prices held steady at $3.84/lb in January, marking the tail end of a recovery phase. The seasonal trend typically softens through mid-year, so expect a gradual decline in prices over the next several months—unless markets defy history and stay flat for another month.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Tame the Chaos: Simplify Back Office Ops at Scale
• Menu Innovation Without Margin Erosion? Yes, Please.
• Tech Up Your Accounting and Watch Profits Grow

 

Produce

The produce sector finally moved: Iceberg lettuce surged 32% w/w as Western crops transition, and roma tomatoes jumped 12.4% amid tightening Eastern supply. Avocados climbed 2.8%, with tariff concerns looming for April. Prices may stay elevated until summer. Yellow onions and most other categories remained stable, though iceberg and romas may continue rising short term.

 

Grains

Wheat cooled after a strong run, with traders watching U.S. drought conditions ahead of April 7 crop progress updates. Despite net cancellations for the current marketing year, strong 2025/26 sales helped stabilize the complex. Export strength could reignite prices if drought worsens, but until then, expect sideways trading.

 

Dairy

Dairy prices softened across the board amid lower retail promotions and mixed export demand. Butter fell $0.04 to $2.30/lb, and cheese blocks dropped 9% to $1.62/lb. Barrels were also down $0.16 to $1.57/lb. Cheese supply remains balanced, but foodservice demand is quiet. Milk production is seasonally high, putting additional pressure on prices.

 

Beef

Cattle prices hit a new record, with the April contract at $209.25/cwt. Choice beef cutouts climbed 3% to $328.06/cwt, fueled by grilling season demand. Premium cuts surged—tenderloins rose $0.81 to $13.21/lb, and shortloins and striploins each climbed 2%. Chuck rolls were up 4%, and trim prices also jumped, with 50% trim spiking 12% to $1.39/lb. With strong consumer demand and high cattle weights, beef is poised to hold price strength despite tariff uncertainty.

 

Pork

The pork cutout fell 1% w/w to $95.86/cwt as production ramped up. Loin and butt primals held steady or rose slightly, with boneless baby back ribs up $0.21 to $2.78/lb. Bellies continued a downward trend—off 5% to $137.44/cwt and down 30% m/m. International sales exceeded 6.2 million lbs, but future export stability is questionable under current tariff pressures. Expect continued volatility without clear trade resolutions.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvest was down 1% w/w but up 1.7% y/y, with boneless breasts rising another $0.13 to $2.18/lb and tenderloins up $0.02 to $1.79/lb. Retailers pushed promotions hard—up 38% w/w—with nearly half of all U.S. grocery stores spotlighting chicken breasts. Wings fell another $0.12 to $1.52/lb, while thigh meat saw modest increases. Egg prices dropped sharply (down 32% w/w) as supply recovers amid no major HPAI outbreaks. Retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and Mexico may help ease U.S. chicken part prices.

 

Seafood

Frozen cod quietly surprised with a 2.7% m/m increase in January, reaching $4.38/lb—its highest point in 16 months. After strong second-half 2024 gains, January’s 15.1% y/y rise was the biggest since March 2023. Prices may dip slightly in February, but a renewed surge is likely in March-April based on seasonal trends.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Cut Costs & Improve Efficiency—Without Hiring More Staff
• Scale Your Restaurant Chain—Without Wasting Money
• Cost Management Solutions for Pizza Restaurants

 

Produce

Produce markets were mostly flat, with no major supply disruptions on the horizon. Avocado prices remain high, with potential tariff impacts looming in April. Iceberg lettuce ticked up slightly but remains stable, while roma tomatoes have held steady for six weeks.

 

Grains

Wheat markets rebounded, fueled by export demand and drought concerns in U.S. hard red winter wheat regions. Corn and soybeans remain stagnant, with potential price movement hinging on upcoming export sales data.

 

Dairy

Dairy prices rebounded after three weeks of decline, driven by increased retail promotions. Butter rose $0.04 to $2.34/lb, while cheese prices climbed, with blocks up 7% to $1.76/lb and barrels up 4% to $1.73/lb. Milk volumes remain high, with steady domestic demand and mixed international interest.

 

Beef

The cattle market saw a nearly 3% increase, with beef demand strengthening ahead of the grilling season. Boneless ribeyes jumped 9% to $11.05/lb, while ground beef 81% fell 5% to $2.65/lb. End cuts showed mixed movement, but strong fundamentals suggest beef prices will remain resilient despite trade-related volatility affecting other proteins.

 

Pork

Hog futures and cash lean hogs were slightly lower, with the pork market facing uncertainty from new tariffs. The ham primal surged 10% to $91.54/cwt, while bellies dropped 6% to $144.72/cwt. The market remains volatile, and Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork could lead to price instability in the coming weeks.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvest increased nearly 4% w/w and 3% y/y, with boneless/skinless breasts jumping $0.14 to $2.05/lb and tenderloins rising $0.04 to $1.77/lb. Meanwhile, chicken wings continued their sharp decline, down $0.14 to $1.64/lb. The USDA’s large eggshell index plummeted 12% w/w as shell egg demand weakened due to stable HPAI conditions. Retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and Mexico may help lower domestic chicken part prices.

 

Seafood

Atlantic salmon prices surged another 4.1% m/m to a record $6.44/lb, continuing a steep post-COVID price climb. The current trend suggests a peak between April and May before a potential seasonal decline into the fall.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Stop Leaving Money on the Table
• Mexican Restaurants: Cut Costs on Key Ingredients
• A Profitability Plan That Works

 

Produce

Avocado prices fell 4.7% w/w but remain elevated, with little relief expected before summer. Yellow onions stabilized at a three-year low of $6/sack, while romas and lettuce held steady. A potential Q1/Q2 lettuce supply gap remains unpredictable.

 

Grains

The grains sector declined but found support after the U.S. delayed tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods. While U.S.-Canada talks remain tense, Mexico’s continued demand for U.S. corn and wheat offers some optimism. Meanwhile, soybeans face pressure from China’s stockpiling and Brazil’s record crop.

 

Dairy

Dairy markets saw sharp declines, with CME blocks dropping 15% to $1.63/lb and barrels down 8% to $1.66/lb. Butter prices slipped $0.04 to $2.30/lb, with domestic demand steady but international buyers showing strong interest.

 

Beef

Beef prices remained steady, with the choice cutout at $199.25/cwt. The rib complex strengthened, with bone-in export ribs up 6% to $8.87/lb. Ground beef 81% rose 3% to $2.79/lb, and 50% trim jumped 5% to $1.09/lb. With a lower harvest rate and spring grilling season ahead, prices are expected to rise further.

 

Pork

The pork market was mixed, with the cutout climbing to $106.13/cwt. Belly prices tumbled 17% to $152.82/cwt, continuing recent volatility. Trim prices rose, with 42% trim up $0.10 to $0.77/lb and 72% trim increasing $0.07 to $1.10/lb. The market faces uncertainty from tariffs, which may drive further instability.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvests declined 2.4% w/w but remained nearly flat y/y. Boneless/skinless breasts surged $0.16 to $1.92/lb, while tenderloins rose $0.04 to $1.73/lb. The USDA’s large eggshell index increased 1.5% w/w, while turkey prices climbed sharply, with bone-in whole turkeys up 12% w/w. Canada and Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs may help lower U.S. chicken part prices.

 

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna spiked 15.8% m/m due to low import volumes, reaching its highest price since early 2023. Prices are expected to peak before dropping sharply between April and June, following historical trends.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Scaling Without the Spend: Grow Smart, Save More
• Fresh Ideas, Healthy Margins: How to Innovate Without Overspending
• Technology That Works as Hard as You Do

 

Produce

Avocado prices spiked 7.6% to their highest level since June 2022, with little relief expected until summer. Iceberg lettuce dropped 18% w/w, erasing January gains, while yellow onions unexpectedly fell but should stabilize soon. Roma tomatoes remain steady, with potential price increases after April.

 

Grains

Corn prices declined as ethanol stocks surged to near-record levels and U.S. tariff threats on Mexican imports raised export concerns. The USDA projected 2025 corn planting at 94 million acres, a sharp increase from 90.6 million last year, which could pressure prices further.

 

Dairy

The dairy market softened, with CME blocks down $0.03 to $1.87/lb and butter falling $0.08 to $2.34/lb. Cheese demand from retail and foodservice remained steady, but buyers are purchasing fewer butter loads than seasonally expected.

 

Beef

Beef prices were stable, with the choice cutout at $311.83/cwt and select at $302.18/cwt. The rib complex showed mixed movement, while shortloins gained 2% to $7.37/lb. With spring grilling season approaching, strong demand is expected to support higher prices despite short-term trade uncertainties.

 

Pork

The pork cutout climbed to $100.96/cwt despite weaker hog futures, driven by a 19% surge in belly prices to $179.08/cwt. Loin/baby back ribs jumped $0.48 to $2.72/lb, while ham prices dropped 7% to $82.20/cwt. Tariffs set to take effect in March add uncertainty, but seasonal demand for pork cuts should keep prices firm.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvests dipped 1.3% w/w but remained 1.6% higher y/y, with boneless/skinless breasts rising $0.09 to $1.75/lb and tenderloins holding steady. The USDA’s large eggshell index climbed 3% w/w, and the federal government announced plans to purchase eggs internationally to mitigate supply challenges.

 

Seafood

Frozen snow crab prices dropped 3.3% m/m in December, easing from prior spikes, but remain 20% higher y/y. While supply constraints from Canada pose risks for another price surge, seasonal trends suggest further declines through mid-year before potential support in April.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Partner for Profit: 6 Ways Consolidated Concepts Transforms Operations
• Streamline Success: Back Office Solutions for Multi-Unit Restaurants
• Automate for Efficiency: 7 Strategies to Simplify Invoicing

 

Produce

Avocado prices rebounded 11.7% w/w, stalling their downward trend, with stability expected until late April or May. Iceberg lettuce unexpectedly fell 7.1% w/w despite ongoing concerns about cold weather impacts, signaling a potential short-term price ceiling between $20-$30/carton.

 

Grains

Wheat markets remained strong, driven by cold weather concerns in the U.S. and Russia. U.S. wheat export sales outperformed expectations, and with global supply already tight, prices should hold onto recent gains even if winterkill damage is minimal.

 

Dairy

The dairy market was mixed, with CME blocks down $0.02 to $1.90/lb and barrels falling 3% to $1.78/lb. Butter prices rose $0.03 to $2.43/lb, supported by strong cream supply, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.

 

Beef

Beef prices continued to decline, with the choice cutout down 2% to $312.62/cwt. Rib prices were mixed, with bone-in exports dropping 8% but boneless ribeye rising 2% to $9.93/lb. Ground beef 81% saw a sharp 18% drop to $2.71/lb, though out-front sales were higher at $3.03/lb, indicating potential price rebounds as spring demand picks up.

 

Pork

Pork prices were mixed, with loins up slightly while ribs and tenderloins trended lower. The belly primal plunged 25% to $136.52/cwt, but a moderate rebound is expected in the coming weeks. Anticipated increases in export sales, freezer restocking, and spring retail promotions should drive the market higher.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvests dipped slightly w/w but were up 2.6% y/y, with boneless/skinless breasts climbing $0.07 to $1.66/lb while tenderloins edged down to $1.69/lb. Egg prices rose 4% w/w, and with ongoing HPAI outbreaks and Easter demand approaching, the egg market is expected to remain tight.

 

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna prices fell 3.8% m/m after an unusual counter-seasonal climb but remain 13.8% higher y/y. The market is expected to stay volatile, with prices likely declining again after January before stabilizing in June.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Is Your Restaurant Growth Costing You More Than It Should?
• Did Valentine’s Day Leave Your Fine Dining Restaurant with a Financial Hangover?
• Is Your Mexican Restaurant Ready for a Cinco de Mayo Rush?

 

Produce

Avocado prices fell another 9.5% w/w and should continue declining before stabilizing near $50/carton. Iceberg lettuce climbed 15% w/w due to cold weather impacts, though the price rally is unlikely to reach last year’s highs. Roma tomatoes remained stable, with no supply issues expected.

 

Grains

Corn markets surged on strong export sales and new tariffs on Brazilian ethanol imports, boosting demand for U.S. corn-based ethanol. While traders were disappointed by minimal WASDE report changes, the outlook remains positive as the market watches for upcoming planting data.

 

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed, with CME blocks up 3% to $1.91/lb and barrels up 2% to $1.83/lb, signaling strengthening demand. Butter prices held steady at $2.40/lb as cream supply remained abundant. Retail promotions increased, while retail prices trended lower.

 

Beef

Beef prices softened, with the choice cutout down 2% to $317.40/cwt as February remains a slow sales period. Chuck rolls saw a steep 14% drop, while loin cuts held firm ahead of the spring grilling season. Ground beef 81% declined 5% to $3.21/lb, while lean trim rebounded slightly to $3.74/lb.

 

Pork

The pork market strengthened, with the cutout climbing 5% to $100.87/cwt, driven by higher belly and trim prices. The belly primal rose 8% to $170.67/cwt, and 72% trim jumped $0.30 to $1.02/lb. With a slightly lower harvest and processors restocking freezers, pork prices are expected to keep rising.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvests rose 6% w/w, but prices were mixed across cuts. Boneless/skinless breasts jumped $0.08 to $1.59/lb, while tenderloins dipped slightly to $1.70/lb. Egg prices surged 15% w/w, and turkey breast prices dropped 7%, signaling shifting demand trends as February retail promotions ramp up.

 

Seafood

Tilapia prices dropped 7.3% m/m, continuing a downward trend after an inflated 2024. Despite this, prices remain 11.7% higher y/y, and historical trends suggest a sharp seasonal rebound between March and April. Operators should prepare for a potential price spike in early spring.