Freshly Picked, September 23, 2025
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Romas surged another 31.7% w/w to $17.16/carton, their highest since January. Iceberg lettuce trended lower for the third straight week, nearing YTD lows just above $10/carton.
Outlook: Tomato pricing will remain elevated through fall but isn’t expected to sustain the current pace. Lettuce looks close to a bottom, setting the stage for a modest rebound. Multi-unit buyers should secure coverage on tomatoes now and prepare for rising lettuce costs as Q4 progresses.
Grains
USDA raised corn acreage again, offsetting yield concerns and keeping futures capped below $4.30. Export demand is stronger, but technical resistance is limiting upside.
Outlook: Prices are likely to drift sideways to lower without new catalysts. Chains should review bakery and dough specs to capture cost efficiencies as flour markets stabilize.
Dairy
CME blocks moved up to $1.68/lb while barrels held steady. Butter softened to $1.81/lb, with strong production ahead of the holidays. Cheese production is steady, though foodservice demand is lighter than last year.
Outlook: Butter could firm later in Q4 as demand builds. Cheese pricing remains stable, supported by stronger milk flows. Operators with large cheese needs should consider forward coverage now to smooth Q4 volatility.
Beef
The beef cutout lost ground, with choice down 4% and select down 5%. Premium items were mixed—tenderloins reached a new YTD high above $20/lb while end cuts and trim weakened. Ground beef and 50/90 trim markets slid further.
Outlook: Expect continued downward pressure on cutouts, though tenderloins and ribs will hold some seasonal strength. Multi-unit operators should prepare for softer trim and grind costs now while planning holiday menus around higher-end cuts.
Pork
Hog futures and cash values slipped 1%. The cutout eased to $111.95/cwt, led by weakness in hams and bellies. Loins and ribs offered slight upside, but tenderloins and belly primals softened. Trim values were mixed.
Outlook: Near-term pork pricing looks mixed-to-lower, with uncertainty from global demand and tariff policy weighing on the market. Chains should consider flexible contracting strategies to offset volatility in bellies and hams while capturing stable loin pricing.
Poultry
Harvest volumes dipped 9.2% w/w but remain almost 8% above last year. White meat saw steep corrections—boneless breasts fell to $1.65/lb and tenders to $2.15/lb. Wings softened again, now 30% under last year’s levels, while thigh meat stayed mostly stable. Turkey markets remain volatile with boneless breasts up sharply y/y.
Outlook: Breast and tender prices are likely to remain under pressure into October, creating opportunities to rebalance menus or lock in contracts. Thigh meat could tighten as retail promotions kick in. Multi-unit groups may want to leverage volume buying to capture wing value while it lasts.
Seafood
Pollock extended its six-month slide, falling another 10% m/m and threatening a new seven-year low. Broad seafood pricing remains under pressure.
Outlook: Some seasonal firming could appear later in the year, but overall weakness persists. Multi-unit buyers should consider long-term contracting to lock in favorable pricing at the bottom of the cycle.
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