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Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

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Poultry

Chicken production is running above last year (heavier birds + steady egg sets/chick placements), putting overall availability into the summer season. Breast and tender prices have softened (breast at a 20‑week low), while dark‑meat (thigh) prices have recently been elevated because exports have weakened and U.S. dark‑meat demand is at record highs. For operators and buyers this means good supply and buying opportunity for white meat now, but shifting domestic demand dynamics for dark meat.

Outlook: Expect continued ample summer supply and a likely pullback in boneless skinless thigh premiums as domestic absorption stabilizes and seasonal flows normalize.

Beef

Weekly and year‑to‑date beef production are down versus last year, leaving supplies tighter; Choice and Select cutouts moved lower with loins and ribs weakest. Disease concerns (New World Screwworm) and poor pasture conditions complicate herd rebuilding, increasing supply uncertainty. Buyers should prioritize contract coverage for core items, consider alternative cuts for promotions, and plan inventories conservatively.

Outlook: Near‑term supply pressure and price volatility are likely to continue, with upside risk to prices until herd and pasture conditions visibly improve.

Pork

Pork output is modestly above last year (heavier carcass weights offsetting a small drop in slaughter), but the pork cutout weakened recently—driven by a steep fall in butts—while bellies remain much lower year‑over‑year. Most primals are behind last year except ribs, creating mixed opportunities across items (e.g., cost savings on bellies for bacon programs, watch butts for promo timing).

Outlook: Production should remain slightly above 2025 into summer, but expect ongoing primals‑level volatility—opportunistic spot buys and flexible menu plans are advised.

Produce

Lettuce (iceberg) has been the primary driver of produce price volatility with repeated supply gaps pushing 24‑count prices to new year‑to‑date highs; tomatoes, onions and avocados are normalizing. For operators, substitute‑friendly menus, tighter yield controls, and short‑term purchasing strategies will help manage margin risk.

Outlook: Short‑term buying pressure should persist for another one–two weeks, with material relief more likely once seasonal supplies re‑establish later in June.

Dairy

CME trading was active but mostly softer; nonfat dry milk is near three‑month lows as buyers delay purchases, while butter has shown surprising firmness supported by strong April exports (but imports rose too). For foodservice and distribution, NFDM looks defensively priced for buyers willing to wait for lower levels, while butter allocations or forward buys may be prudent if your programs are margin‑sensitive.

Outlook: NFDM faces further near‑term downside risk; butter upside is more limited as narrowing U.S.–international spreads should increase available U.S. supply.

Grains

The overall grains correction slowed—wheat rebounded slightly, soybeans held ground, and corn saw mixed action after South American crop estimates and helpful U.S. rains; soybean oil is the most vulnerable, testing key technical support. For procurement, monitor vegetable oil closely (frying costs) and consider short‑dated coverage or flexible contracts tied to benchmark indices.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility driven by South American crop updates, U.S. weather, and oilseed fundamentals—soybean oil is the key near‑term watch item.

Seafood

Frozen cod fillet prices spiked in April as import volumes hit lows not seen since 2013, pushing prices substantially above last year; early signs suggest imports rebounded in May, which should help ease pressure. Distributors should evaluate alternative whitefish, adjust pricing for high‑cost cod SKUs, and watch May/June import flows.

Outlook: Near‑term cod prices remain elevated, but rising import volumes through May–and into summer—should begin to moderate prices toward year‑end.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Chicken slaughter and production rose notably last week (up 10% and 2.7% YoY, respectively), with strong layer efficiency (+5% YoY), but front-half cuts (wings, tenders, breasts) weakened while thighs and leg quarters held firm; table eggs eased toward $0.50/dozen and turkey markets were mostly lower amid ongoing industry recovery from avian flu, with April output up 9.6% YoY but still historically low.

Outlook: Chicken and turkey supplies are expected to build steadily in the coming months, likely keeping pressure on front-half chicken prices while supporting a gradual turkey recovery.

Beef

Beef production jumped 19% week-over-week but remained 4.3% below year-ago levels; markets turned volatile after the first U.S. New World Screwworm detection in Texas since 1966, with choice cutout and trim mostly firm (ribs leading gains) while select beef softened, and hamburger inflation hit 16.4% YoY versus just 2% for steaks.

Outlook: The divergence between strong hamburger/trim pricing and softer steak values is expected to persist amid heightened monitoring costs for herd rebuilding.

Pork

Pork production rose sharply (up 13.6% week-over-week and 4.9% YoY), but hog prices weakened near early-March lows; the USDA cutout climbed more than 3% over the past month (bellies leading gains) while ribs and butts fell, retail pork hit a record high yet remains at a deep discount to beef, and per-capita consumption is projected to grow only 0.6% this year.

Outlook: Limited consumption growth and the recent May cutout decline may temper any seasonal upside in pork markets over the coming months.

Produce

Avocado prices surged more than 80% in the past two weeks to their highest level since May 2025 due to an early end to Mexico’s main harvest, with relief expected late in the month; 24-count iceberg lettuce showed a slight bounce but is expected to stay near the $20/carton level through summer before the typical September/October surge.

Outlook: Avocado buying pressure should ease later this month as the Loca harvest begins earlier than usual, while lettuce prices remain range-bound near $20/carton for most of the summer.

Dairy

CME spot dairy trade was light and mostly lower (NDM and cheese blocks down, butter up), with milk production entering seasonal easing in the Midwest and West; NDM output is tracking 7% higher year-to-date after historic highs earlier this spring, and stocks are rebuilding though still below average.

Outlook: NDM prices have likely peaked, with only limited near-term downside expected as higher output helps rebalance the market.

Grains

The grains sell-off continued, with soybeans joining the losses and weighing on soybean oil’s rally; corn declined amid shifting Corn Belt weather forecasts, with solid underlying demand even as the July contract approached $4.20.

Outlook: Corn may find technical support and attempt a bounce, but negative momentum could push prices toward $4 before stabilization.

Seafood

March snow crab import data showed a modest 7.6% month-over-month gain but marked the final quiet period before the stronger 2026 import season begins; post-COVID price volatility has continued, with recent months interrupting the 2024–2025 recovery.

Outlook: A strong import season should keep summer snow crab price gains more muted than in prior decades and could open the door for a later-year downturn.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Chicken supplies continue expanding, keeping pricing pressure on most poultry categories. Breast meat prices are now down 45% year-over-year, while wings, tenders, and boneless skinless thighs also softened last week. Turkey breast pricing has dropped nearly 20% over the last month as production improves, and USDA data continues pointing to strong chicken supply growth through at least June.

Outlook: Multi-unit operators may continue seeing favorable contract and menu-margin opportunities across several chicken categories this summer. With production expected to remain elevated longer term, poultry should remain one of the more stable center-of-plate proteins from a cost management perspective.

Beef

Beef production remained constrained last week as cattle slaughter stayed well below year-ago levels due to ongoing packer margin pressure. Choice beef cuts moved higher while Select categories softened, creating continued volatility across the complex. At the same time, feedlot inventories and cattle placements improved year-over-year, while potential El Niño conditions could eventually improve pasture conditions in major cattle regions.

Outlook: Beef markets will likely remain highly dynamic for multi-unit operators managing large-scale purchasing and menu consistency. While improved weather could support future herd rebuilding, tighter slaughter supplies may continue creating pricing pressure and volatility across key beef cuts in the near term.

Pork

Pork production eased slightly week-over-week but remained above 2025 levels overall. Pork butts and ribs continued strengthening, with butt pricing now nearly 16% above last year, while bellies continued falling sharply and remain a major factor weighing on the overall pork cutout. USDA still projects 2026 pork production to reach record-high levels.

Outlook: Strong overall pork availability should continue helping stabilize broad pork costs for operators managing multiple locations. Belly weakness may create additional value opportunities for bacon-heavy menus, while elevated butt and rib pricing could continue impacting seasonal promotional planning during peak summer demand.

Produce

Produce markets were noticeably calmer last week as tomatoes, onions, and lettuce continued easing from recent elevated pricing levels. Roma tomatoes moved lower again, while onion and lettuce markets are gradually stabilizing. Attention is now beginning to shift toward avocados as Mexican crop transitions and weaker upcoming supply projections create concerns around tighter summer availability.

Outlook: Operators may continue seeing produce cost relief across several core menu ingredients in the coming weeks, particularly tomatoes and onions. However, avocado pricing could become a larger pressure point this summer, especially for concepts with high-volume usage across multiple locations.

Dairy

Dairy markets weakened again last week, with cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk all posting notable declines. Cheese and butter markets are now trading at least 18% below last year, while milk production continues climbing as the U.S. dairy herd reaches its largest size since 1993. Export demand for nonfat dry milk is also beginning to soften.

Outlook: Multi-unit operators could continue benefiting from favorable dairy pricing through the summer, particularly across cheese-heavy menu categories. Expanding milk supplies and softer exports may help keep dairy costs relatively manageable in the near term.

Grains

Grain markets were relatively subdued last week, with most movement tied to broader geopolitical and energy market developments. Corn prices briefly rallied following announcements around a new U.S.-China agricultural agreement before quickly pulling back as uncertainty around the agreement details remained high. Even without additional Chinese demand, U.S. corn exports remain historically strong.

Outlook: Grain markets may continue reacting to global trade headlines and energy market swings, but overall supply fundamentals remain relatively stable. Operators should continue monitoring grain-driven categories like oils, breading, and feed-sensitive proteins for any downstream pricing movement.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna prices surged 19.5% month-over-month in March, marking one of the sharpest seafood category increases this year. While some rebound was expected following historically weak pricing throughout much of 2025, the strength of the increase exceeded normal seasonal expectations.

Outlook: Tuna markets may continue firming modestly through the summer months as seasonal demand strengthens. Multi-unit operators with seafood-forward menus may want to monitor tuna costs closely as elevated pricing could impact promotional planning and margin management later this season.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Tomato prices have fallen sharply as new supplies from the Eastern U.S. and Mexico enter the market, with expectations of prices returning to historical ranges by late June. Onion markets are stabilizing as new-crop supplies come online, and a significant downturn is expected over the coming weeks. Lettuce remains historically elevated but is projected to normalize by month-end, with iceberg lettuce expected to moderate by mid-June.

Outlook: Expect tomato and onion costs to decline through June, and iceberg lettuce to moderate by mid-June, restoring more normal produce pricing into summer. This creates a favorable window for summer produce promotions.

Grains & Vegetable Oils

The May Crop Production and WASDE reports provided the first 2026/27 balance sheets. Despite a projected over 25% jump in biofuel demand, U.S. soybean oil carryout is forecast to rise slightly year-over-year due to larger production and weaker exports. This presents a fundamentally bearish signal that may not be fully priced into the market yet.

Outlook: Fundamentals suggest potential softening in soybean oil prices, with a gradual downside bias if the market reprices these fundamentals. Staggered purchases and short-term contracts for soybean oil are advised.

Dairy

Most spot dairy items eased last week, with butter being a slight exception. Cheese is trading roughly 12% below last year, and butter is about 30% below, supported by seasonally strong milk production. March cheese exports were strong, but softening global prices may blunt export momentum later in the summer.

Outlook: Dairy pricing is favorable in the near term, particularly for cheese and butter. However, monitor export competitiveness for potential late-summer volatility. Locking in extended coverage now is recommended to protect summer and early-fall menu economics.

Beef

Weekly beef production saw a modest increase of 1.4%, but year-to-date output still trails 2025 by approximately 6.7% due to reduced cattle slaughter. Cutout prices were mixed, with Select finishing above Choice, potentially indicating consumer trade-down. Flanks and chucks strengthened, while briskets and loins softened. The USDA has trimmed its production estimates for Q2 through Q4, suggesting the anticipated feedlot backlog may not materialize.

Outlook: Structural tightness in supply and downgraded USDA forecasts point to sustained upward price pressure across many beef items through the latter half of 2026. While some near-term relief may be seen on specific primal cuts, overall inflation is expected.

Pork

Pork output eased by 3.6% week-over-week and is roughly flat year-over-year. The pork cutout saw a modest gain, led by butts and ribs. Pork bellies have collapsed significantly, down nearly 5% last week and over 16% year-over-year, creating a strong buying opportunity. Exports to Mexico remain very strong, setting a March record, which is expected to provide a price floor for hams.

Outlook: Pork bellies and bacon represent a clear short-term buying window for summer promotions. Hams should find support from robust Mexican demand heading into Q3 and Q4.

Poultry

Domestic chicken production continues to be robust, with year-to-date output up approximately 3% year-over-year. While most items are firming, boneless skinless breasts are down just over 1% and on track to average lower in May than April. Chicken wings are trading near decade-low May levels, and table eggs have ticked up. Chinese chicken imports are projected to fall to their lowest since 2013, limiting potential export upside for U.S. product.

Outlook: Expect continued price pressure and promotional opportunities for breasts and wings. While export flows may offer limited long-term support, the significant value gap versus beef presents a portfolio-level margin opportunity.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet prices fell 8.8% month-over-month in March and remain weak after an extended downturn. This is atypical, as tilapia has historically peaked between March and April. Import flows and seasonal patterns have not provided their usual upward support.

Outlook: Tilapia and some imported whitefish should remain competitively priced in the near term, implying a flat-to-softer price profile. This supports value-oriented menu features and LTOs while helping to manage food costs.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Produce markets remain elevated, with roma tomatoes exceeding $40, iceberg lettuce climbing past prior highs, and onion pricing still surging across multiple varieties.

Outlook: Relief may begin to emerge mid-May, but near-term pressure remains. Multi-unit operators should focus on supplier diversification and menu flexibility to manage ongoing volatility.

Grains

Grain markets moved modestly higher, with soybeans seeing slight gains after weeks of flat movement, largely driven by soybean oil strength rather than underlying demand shifts.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility. Without new policy or demand catalysts, grain pricing may remain inconsistent, making cost forecasting more challenging.

Dairy

Butter prices slipped and are now trading below cheese, a dynamic not consistently seen since 2021, while global dairy pricing begins to rebalance.

Outlook: Butter may be approaching a pricing floor, but strong milk production and slower demand will likely limit upside. Watch for stabilization rather than sharp increases.

Beef

Beef production increased 1% week-over-week, supported by heavier carcass weights, while trim prices reached record highs. At the same time, premium cuts like ribeyes are down 10.9% year-over-year, pointing to continued trade-down behavior from consumers.

Outlook: Expect continued pricing pressure driven by tight cattle supply. Operators should evaluate cut selection and menu mix closely, as value-driven items may outperform higher-end offerings.

Pork

Pork production eased slightly, down 0.9% week-over-week, with pricing declines across most primals—especially bellies, which dropped 7% from March to April.

Outlook: This is a window to lock in pricing where possible. Seasonal demand typically pushes pork, particularly bellies, higher through summer, making current pricing an opportunity for forward planning.

Poultry

Chicken supply continues to build, with production up 3.3% year-over-year, keeping pressure on pricing for breasts and tenders while wings remain at historically low levels. Egg prices have dropped sharply, falling from $8.50/dozen at their peak to around $0.50 today as production rebounds.

Outlook: Chicken remains a stable category for now, but wings present potential upside risk. Eggs may offer short-term cost relief, but pricing could tighten again as demand normalizes and supply recovery remains incomplete.

Seafood

Snow crab pricing continues to decline, down more than 15% over the past three months, reversing much of the late 2025 gains.

Outlook: Short-term relief is likely to continue, but longer-term pricing trends remain uncertain. Operators should monitor seasonal patterns closely and avoid overcommitting at current levels.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Tomatoes continue to hold elevated pricing, while iceberg lettuce has re-entered a spike due to supply gaps tied to the Yuma-to-Salinas transition. Onion volatility, particularly in whites, is being driven by new crop transitions, though the current spike is expected to be temporary. Weather-driven disruptions are creating short-term procurement challenges across categories.

Outlook: Lettuce will likely remain elevated in the near term, requiring careful cost management across locations. Onion pricing should normalize soon, offering some relief in produce baskets.

Grains

Wheat continues to lead the grains complex as drought conditions intensify in key U.S. growing regions, driving upward price pressure. Soybean markets have stabilized following recent volatility, but broader grain trends remain elevated. Increasing drought severity is raising concerns around yield potential and future cost impacts.

Outlook: Wheat pricing is likely to stay elevated in the near term, impacting flour and grain-based inputs. Longer-term relief may emerge as export demand weakens.

Dairy

Cheese and nonfat dry milk posted gains last week, while butter and whey softened as milk production moves into its seasonal peak. A growing milk herd is helping maintain supply balance, limiting volatility despite steady demand. For multi-unit operators, this supports more predictable pricing across core dairy inputs.

Outlook: Dairy markets should remain relatively stable, with herd expansion helping cap significant upside. Watch for potential softening in export-sensitive categories like cheese.

Beef

Beef production saw a short-term increase but remains significantly constrained year over year, with output down more than 5% due to tight cattle supplies. Cutout values are trending higher, particularly for middle meats, while lean trim markets remain supported by reduced cow and bull slaughter. This continues to put pressure on ground beef-heavy menus and blended protein strategies.

Outlook: Expect sustained elevated pricing across beef categories, especially for trim and ground applications. Strategic sourcing and menu engineering will be critical as supply constraints persist.

Pork

Pork

Pork production softened slightly week over week but remains above prior-year levels, with cutout values rising behind strength in butts and ribs. Bellies are at a 10-week low, presenting a potential cost advantage for operators with flexible menu applications. Lower sow slaughter levels indicate herd rebuilding, which could improve supply availability later this year.

Outlook: Near-term pork pricing remains relatively stable with selective opportunities, particularly on bellies. Improved supply later in 2026 could create more favorable contracting conditions.

Poultry

Chicken production continues to expand, now running more than 3% above last year, which is keeping downward pressure on key cuts like wings and boneless breasts. Eggs remain historically low but carry upside risk, while increased chick placements and a larger broiler flock point to sustained supply strength. For multi-unit operators, this creates an opportunity to stabilize protein costs across menus and contracts.

Outlook: Chicken should remain a favorable center-of-plate option through summer. Locking in value where possible makes sense, but eggs and wings still carry upward pricing risk.

Seafood

Tilapia pricing rebounded in February after reaching seasonal lows, continuing a pattern of significant month-to-month volatility. The category remains highly reactive, with pricing typically rising into spring before easing later in the year. This creates both risk and opportunity depending on timing and purchasing strategy.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility in the near term, with pricing likely peaking before trending downward. Strategic timing of purchases will be key to managing cost exposure.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• It’s Not Just Food Costs Anymore
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Produce

Produce markets were relatively quiet overall, though key items continue to show pressure. Tomatoes remain elevated due to constrained supply, lettuce rebounded as expected off its floor, and onion markets are gaining traction, especially for red varieties.

Outlook: Expect ongoing variability across categories. Tomato pricing should ease once supply improves, while lettuce is likely to remain within a predictable range. Onion strength may persist short term, but not all varieties are positioned to hold those gains long term.

Grains

Grain markets shifted focus back to wheat, with prices climbing as drought conditions worsened across key growing regions. Limited rainfall and declining crop conditions continue to drive uncertainty in the market.

Outlook: There is still potential for upward pressure in wheat if weather conditions don’t improve. This could have downstream impacts on multiple cost centers, including baked goods and feed-driven proteins, making it important to stay ahead of broader cost implications.

Dairy

Cheese markets held steady week over week, while butter declined and nonfat dry milk continued its sharp upward climb. Seasonal milk production is increasing, supporting overall output, though global market dynamics are starting to influence pricing behavior.

Outlook: Cheese should remain relatively stable in the near term, but rising nonfat dry milk could create underlying support for pricing. Export competitiveness will be key to watch, as softer international markets may limit upside.

Beef

Beef production remains tightly controlled, with output down significantly year over year as cattle availability continues to constrain the market. Even with some minor softening in select cuts, overall pricing remains near record highs due to sustained pressure on the supply side.

Outlook: Beef will continue to challenge margins across locations. With no meaningful supply recovery in sight, operators should focus on mix management, portion strategies, and cross-utilization to protect profitability without sacrificing menu appeal.

Pork

Pork

Pork production is running above last year, contributing to a mixed pricing environment across cuts. Bellies and picnics pulled the market lower, while hams and ribs showed strength, and pork trim declined despite firmness in competing beef trim markets.

Outlook: This is shaping up to be a strategic buying window, particularly for bellies. Pricing is sitting near seasonal lows and could move higher as summer demand builds. Operators with the ability to plan ahead may find opportunities to lock in value before the market turns.

Poultry

Chicken production remains elevated compared to last year, even with a slight week-over-week dip in slaughter. That continued supply is keeping most markets stable, with breasts and wings easing while thighs and tenders hold firm. Turkey breast showed some softness, and eggs are still sitting at favorable levels for buyers.

Outlook: Chicken continues to offer consistency at scale, especially compared to other proteins. With production likely trending higher into summer, expect steady pricing with limited upside risk. Wings are the one area to watch, as demand could tighten that segment faster than the rest.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna experienced significant volatility earlier in the year but is now stabilizing near seasonal lows after a sharp decline in February. Pricing behavior is aligning more closely with typical seasonal patterns.

Outlook: Expect relatively stable pricing in the short term, with limited upward movement until early summer. This creates a more predictable environment for menu planning and promotional strategies featuring tuna.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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• Are Small Gaps in Your Operation Quietly Cutting Into Profits?

Produce

Tomato pricing remains volatile but showed signs of leveling off. Avocado increases appear temporary due to supply disruption, while broccoli saw a short-term rebound before an المتوقع seasonal decline.

Outcome: Ongoing produce volatility reinforces the need for flexible sourcing strategies and menu adaptability across locations, particularly for high-volume ingredients like tomatoes and avocados.

Grains

Grain markets trended lower, driven by improved weather conditions and reduced drought pressure in key growing regions.

Outcome: Lower grain costs could begin to ease feed expenses, creating potential downstream relief in protein pricing—something operators should factor into forward planning.

Dairy

Cheese and butter softened slightly, while nonfat dry milk surged to multi-year highs and may be nearing a peak. Seasonal milk production is increasing, supporting broader supply.

Outcome: Stable dairy inputs create an opportunity to protect margins in core menu items, but operators should monitor shifts in milk allocation that could impact cheese pricing longer term.

Beef

Beef supply remains constrained due to reduced slaughter, keeping pricing elevated despite some softening last week. Imports are increasing, but primarily lean product, offering limited relief for center-of-plate cuts.

Outcome: Sustained high beef costs will continue to challenge margins across locations. Multi-unit operators should evaluate menu engineering strategies, spec flexibility, and cross-protein substitution to maintain profitability.

Pork

Pork

Improved pork production is helping stabilize the market, though certain categories like ham are seeing short-term spikes. Pork trim remains elevated due to ongoing substitution from beef.

Outcome: Pork continues to be a strategic lever for cost management, but operators should monitor trim and rib categories closely as substitution demand and seasonal trends evolve.

Poultry

Chicken production is ramping up quickly, with supply expected to hit record levels this year. Prices are still climbing in the near term—especially for breasts and tenders—but that incoming supply should help temper the typical spring surge. Eggs remain at historic lows.

Outcome: Near-term cost pressure on high-demand chicken cuts, but operators with scale can start planning for more favorable contracting opportunities as supply expands. Eggs continue to offer strong margin flexibility.

Seafood

Salmon pricing moved counter to typical seasonal trends, declining early in the year. A rebound is expected, but the market is still stabilizing following last year’s correction.

Outcome: Short-term buying opportunities may exist, but operators should anticipate pricing normalization as seasonal demand builds.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

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