Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
The poultry market experienced a holiday-induced dip in slaughter last week, yet year-to-date production remains positive. While breast meat and wing prices are declining, indicating increased supply relative to demand, other cuts like tenders and thighs are firm, with thighs showing a notable premium. Egg prices are at very low levels. Despite historically low wing inventories, expanding production has driven prices down significantly.
Outlook: Ample overall production is expected to keep a lid on major price rallies for most chicken products, although specific cuts like wings and dark meat may see some seasonal strength.
Beef
Beef production saw a sharp seasonal decline due to the holiday, though it remains close to last year’s levels. Fed cattle prices softened, and the boxed beef complex was mixed, with choice cuts rising and select cuts falling. Notably, some primal cuts like loin and rib are now trading below year-ago prices. Increased feedlot inventories and lagging marketings suggest a buildup of cattle, pointing towards larger beef supplies ahead.
Outlook: Anticipate a potential increase in market-ready cattle and beef production in the coming months, which could lead to downward price pressure across many beef items.
Pork
Hog slaughter was lighter due to the holiday, but heavier carcass weights resulted in a slight increase in pork production compared to last year. Despite this, hog prices faced pressure. The pork cutout has seen broad gains, with pork butt being a standout performer, rallying significantly and trading above year-ago levels. Pork inventories are tighter year-over-year, particularly for butts and bellies, which are at multi-year lows.
Outlook: Tight inventories for pork butts and bellies, combined with seasonal demand, are likely to drive prices upward for these specific cuts through the summer.
Produce
Prices for tomatoes, lettuce, and onions have continued to decrease from recent highs, though the downward trend for tomatoes is slowing. Avocados and potatoes have shown notable price increases, with potatoes beginning their typical summer rally slightly ahead of schedule. Avocado prices are strong due to the early end of Mexico’s main crop.
Outlook: Expect continued price appreciation for potatoes and avocados as supplies are constrained and seasonal demand increases, while tomatoes, lettuce, and onions are likely to stabilize or see further minor declines.
Dairy
Spot dairy markets were mixed, with nonfat dry milk and cheese prices declining while butter and dry whey increased. Nonfat dry milk appears to have topped out. U.S. milk production remains strong, up significantly year-over-year, driven by herd growth and improved yields, with a strong two-year growth rate.
Outlook: The persistently high milk production levels are expected to exert downward pressure on cheese and butter prices, limiting significant upside potential for these commodities.
Grains
Most grain markets finished lower last week. However, soybean oil (SBO) has seen a significant breakout rally, surpassing a key resistance level. This move occurred despite weaker crude oil prices and steady soybean performance. Further upside for SBO may be technically challenging without broader energy market support.
Outlook: Soybean oil may experience continued near-term strength, but sustained rallies beyond historical highs will likely depend on supporting crude oil prices. Other grains appear stable to softer.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock fillets experienced a substantial price increase in March, reaching their highest point in over a year. This marks a significant recovery after a prolonged period of price declines. While prices corrected in April, the market trend indicates further potential for gains through the fall.
Outlook: Pollock prices are expected to trend upwards through the remainder of the year, suggesting that current levels may not represent the peak for 2026.
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