Freshly Picked, September 22, 2026
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supplies remain tighter than expected as producers continue to limit output. Young bird slaughter was 4% below the same week last year, and broiler egg sets and chick placements were only 0.4% and 0.5% above year-ago levels, signaling only modest supply growth ahead. That slower production is helping support prices, especially for leg quarters and thighs, even as demand stays strong: U.S. per-capita chicken consumption is estimated at 106.8 lbs, up 3.8% from 2025 and a record high.
Outlook: Chicken markets should stay supported near term as restrained production and strong consumer demand keep supplies from building too quickly.
Beef
Beef production remains under pressure, with last week’s output down 4.5% from a year ago due to a 5.4% decline in cattle slaughter. August feedlot placements were down 9% from 2025 and marked the smallest August placement total in 30 years, reinforcing the longer-term tight supply story. At the same time, near-term relief may emerge: Q4 beef supplies are projected to rise by 295 million pounds from Q3, the largest seasonal increase in more than a decade, which could pressure boxed beef values.
Outlook: Beef prices may face some short-term softness in Q4 as supplies seasonally increase, but the broader supply backdrop remains historically tight.
Pork
Pork output was down 4.8% year over year last week, driven largely by a 3.9% decline in hog slaughter, yet the market still weakened as demand remained sluggish. The USDA pork cutout fell to its lowest level since February 2024, while the belly primal dropped 25% in one week and is now down 46% year over year. Expectations for a smaller hog and breeding herd, along with sow farrowings projected nearly 2% below last year, point to tighter supply ahead.
Outlook: Pork prices may stay under pressure in the short run, but tightening herd fundamentals could provide more support as 2027 approaches.
Produce
Produce markets were generally steady, but a few categories are worth watching. 48-count Hass avocados continued to ease toward their current year-to-date low and are expected to find support near $20/carton. 24-count iceberg lettuce moved higher again and appears to have meaningful upside potential into late fall, while 25 lb. large Roma tomatoes are also firming and could reach around $30 in November, though likely well below the $40+ highs seen earlier this year.
Outlook:Produce should remain relatively orderly overall, with the best upside risk centered in lettuce and, to a lesser extent, Roma tomatoes through November.
Dairy
Dairy markets were active but mixed last week, with 49 CME spot loads traded on Friday alone. Cheese blocks, barrels, and butter moved lower for the week, while nonfat dry milk and dry whey held steady. Butter production remains strong thanks to ample cream supplies, and U.S. butter’s discount to global markets could help exports, but rising feed costs are squeezing dairy farmer margins and raising concern about possible herd contraction if profitability worsens.
Outlook: Dairy markets may remain rangebound near term, but tighter farmer margins bear watching because they could eventually reduce milk production and support prices.
Grains
Grain markets were mostly quiet outside of soybean meal, with December corn settling into a $5.20 to $5.40 range after the September Crop Production Report. The updated outlook pushed the 2026/27 U.S. stocks-to-use ratio below 10%, which is historically tight, but weakening export and domestic demand could still trigger a pullback. Even so, the longer-term global balance sheet remains relatively snug.
Outlook: Corn looks vulnerable to a short-term correction, but the market should remain fundamentally supported and likely hold near $5 over the longer term.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia filet was one of the strongest movers in July import data, rising 6.7% month over month after a similar gain in June. Prices had fallen to an all-time low in May before rebounding quickly, helped by import volumes running below normal seasonal levels. Even with the recent bounce, the market is typically quiet in the second half of the year, suggesting the rally may lose momentum soon.
Outlook: Tilapia prices are likely to flatten out into early 2027, with the next more meaningful upside move more likely in spring.
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