Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production remains ample, with year-to-date output up roughly 2.7%, helping keep several categories under pressure. Wing pricing is still hovering near 10-year lows for June, and tenderloins posted a 7% weekly decline, but inventories for some key foodservice cuts are tighter than overall production numbers suggest.
Outlook: Poultry remains relatively favorable near term, but any production pullback could tighten availability and shift pricing quickly on high-demand cuts.
Beef
Beef markets remain structurally tight, even as near-term supply has shown some stability. Production is still running about 1% to 3% below last year, and the latest Cattle on Feed report showed placements down nearly 10%, reinforcing longer-term supply concerns. At the same time, middle meats continue to command attention as operators look for value in a high-cost protein environment.
Outlook: Expect elevated beef pricing to persist, with loin items offering one of the more practical opportunities for balancing guest appeal and cost control.
Pork
Pork continues to offer one of the more attractive value stories in protein. The pork cutout remains about 21% below year-ago levels, and belly pricing is down as much as 32% versus last year, creating opportunity for operators with flexibility across menus and dayparts. Still, breeding herds are sitting at 12-year lows, which could eventually slow production growth.
Outlook: Pork should remain a strong value option in the short term, but the supply-side fundamentals suggest this pricing environment may not be permanent.
Produce
Produce markets have been relatively steady overall, though lettuce continues to stand out as a pressure point. Iceberg pricing has climbed for four straight weeks, with recent increases of about 4% week over week, as supply constraints have limited the normal seasonal reset.
Outlook: Operators with high lettuce usage should be prepared for continued near-term cost pressure and may want to evaluate specs, yields, or substitutions where possible.
Dairy
Dairy markets softened again last week, with both cheese blocks and butter falling to 6-month lows. Even so, butter inventories remain roughly 7% to 8% below last year, suggesting that while current pricing is favorable, underlying supply is not especially loose.
Outlook: Dairy presents near-term buying opportunities, though tighter inventory positions could make the market more reactive if demand improves.
Grains
Grain markets were relatively quiet heading into the USDA’s June Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, but that calm may not last. Current expectations point to corn acreage near 95 million acres and soybean acreage around 83.7 million, figures that could move markets depending on how closely the official data aligns with trade expectations.
Outlook: Expect volatility in the near term as updated acreage and stocks data reset sentiment across feed, oilseed, and grain-linked categories.
Seafood
Seafood pricing remains uneven across species. Frozen tilapia continues to post sizable monthly swings, while frozen cod import prices have climbed to historic highs, now roughly 31% above last year. For operators managing broad seafood assortments, this divergence creates both risk and opportunity depending on species mix.
Outlook: Tilapia remains comparatively workable despite recent volatility, while higher whitefish costs may continue to pressure menus built around cod.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
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