Freshly Picked, September 28, 2026
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production showed some mixed signals last week. Young bird slaughter improved 2.5% from the prior week, but remained 1% below the same week last year, while production for the week ending September 19 was 6% lower year over year. Even with that recent slowdown, year-to-date chicken output is still running 1.6% above 2025. On pricing, most chicken markets were steady, but boneless skinless thighs rose more than 3% and continue to command unusually strong premiums compared with breasts and tenders. Producers appear to be slowing output growth as margins tighten under low chicken prices and higher feed costs, though a 2% larger broiler layer inventory suggests production could expand again this winter if profitability improves.
Outlook: Seasonal price declines may still occur, but tighter near-term supplies should help keep downside limited, especially for breasts, tenders, and wings.
Beef
Beef production tightened sharply last week, falling 8.4% from the previous week and 12.5% below last year, driven in part by disruptions at major Kansas processing plants that account for nearly 20% of capacity. Boxed beef values moved higher, with both Choice and Select cutouts up on the week and roughly even with year-ago levels. On the supply side, the September 1 cattle-on-feed inventory was 0.8% above last year, but August placements were down 9.2% and marked the smallest August total in at least 30 years. Imports from Mexico are beginning to recover, with volumes last week reportedly the strongest in over a year, though with only two ports open, the near-term boost is expected to be modest.
Outlook: Beef production should improve quarter over quarter into the fourth quarter, but overall supplies are still expected to remain below 2025 levels, keeping the market fundamentally supported.
Pork
Pork production increased 3% from the prior week and was essentially flat with last year, up just 0.1%, while year-to-date output remains 0.1% below the prior year. Even with that slight weekly increase, the broader supply picture remains tight: the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report showed the total herd was 1.5% below 2025, the breeding herd was also down 1.5%, sows farrowing fell 2.7%, and the pig crop declined 1.5%. On the pricing side, the USDA pork cutout fell to its lowest level in more than two years, with picnics, ribs, loins, and butts all lower, while bellies and hams posted gains. Pork trim held mostly flat to firm but remains close to 30% below year-ago levels.
Outlook: Limited hog supplies this fall should help cushion the market and may prevent a much deeper seasonal decline in pork prices.
Produce
Produce pricing was led by a sharp move higher in lettuce, with 24-count iceberg up 34.2% week over week to a 12-week high. That suggests the usual late-year lettuce rally may be arriving earlier than expected, with more upside likely through mid-November. Tomatoes were flat last week, but 25 lb. large romas still have upside risk and could climb to around $30 per carton by the end of November before easing into the new year. Avocados were comparatively quiet, with 48-count Hass avocados ending a six-week slide and moving modestly higher, returning to the $20 to $30 per carton range, which is considered more typical for this time of year.
Outlook: Expect continued upward pressure on lettuce and tomatoes through fall, while avocado pricing should remain relatively stable.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mostly firmer last week, although activity remained light with just 24 CME spot loads traded on Friday. Cheese blocks were the exception, falling to their lowest level in more than nine months, while nonfat dry milk climbed to its highest point since late May. Butter availability has tightened due to strong domestic and export demand, while cheese inventories remain available with bulk product trading below CME values. On the production side, August milk output increased 1.7% year over year, setting a record for the month, and the milk cow herd was also 1.7% larger than last year, the biggest in more than 30 years. However, milk per cow was flat to 2025 and only 0.7% above August 2024, suggesting productivity growth may be slowing.
Outlook: Dairy markets should remain generally supported, with butter and powder strength helping offset limited downside in cheese.
Grains
Grain markets moved lower across most categories last week, with soybean meal the only major segment posting gains. Much of the weakness came in the second half of the week, led by wheat, as attention turned to renewed diplomatic discussions around reopening trade through the Black Sea. December Chicago wheat had been approaching technical support near $7 per bushel, but ultimately broke below that level. Despite ongoing Black Sea uncertainty, the market has yet to see any meaningful increase in U.S. wheat export sales, limiting bullish momentum.
Outlook: Grain markets may stabilize, but without stronger export demand, upside in wheat and broader grain pricing appears limited near term.
Seafood
Seafood pricing was relatively quiet overall, with frozen cod filet standing out as the primary mover in the latest July data. Cod prices fell 5.3% month over month, ending a four-month rally during which prices had surged nearly 52% and set new all-time highs each month. Even with that pullback, import volumes have remained below normal since September of last year, pointing to continued supply-side tightness. The recent decline may indicate some demand resistance at elevated price levels, but not enough to fully normalize the market.
Outlook: Cod pricing may ease modestly in the near term, but supply constraints are likely to keep seafood costs elevated into early 2027.
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