Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supply remains relatively stable, but pricing performance across cuts continues to tell two very different stories. Chicken slaughter last week was roughly 2% above year-ago levels, while production for the week ending August 8 rose 1% versus the prior week but was 1.2% below last year, driven entirely by a 1.7% drop in bird weights. Even with that decline, year-to-date chicken output is still running 2.4% ahead of last year, supported by improved bird availability. On the pricing side, markets were generally soft, with breast meat, tenders, and wings all lower, while whole birds and leg quarters held up better. The more important strategic trend for operators is still dark meat strength: in July, boneless skinless thighs reached a record premium over boneless skinless breasts for that month, reflecting continued momentum in both export demand and domestic dark meat consumption.
Outlook: Expect dark meat to remain comparatively well supported in the near term, while softer white meat pricing may create selective value opportunities for operators with flexible menu applications.
Beef
Beef fundamentals remain tight, but demand resistance is becoming harder to ignore. Beef production rose 1.3% last week and came in just 1.4% below the same week last year, yet year-to-date output is still down 5.5%, largely because cattle slaughter is running 8% lower. Wholesale values moved higher last week, with the USDA Choice cutout up 1.8% and the Select cutout up 0.6%, led by gains in briskets, loins, and Choice ribs. Even so, overall boxed beef values remain about 5% below 2025 levels. On the demand side, the USDA lowered its 2026 per capita beef consumption estimate to 58.9 pounds per person, or 0.5% below last year, signaling continued consumer pushback to elevated retail pricing. Meanwhile, June trade data showed beef exports down 10% year over year and imports up 24%, with U.S. beef imports reaching a monthly record and lean imported trim continuing to price well below domestic equivalents.
Outlook: Beef markets should stay supported by limited domestic supply, but elevated imports and growing consumer resistance may cap upside and keep operators focused on mix, yield, and portion control.
Pork
Pork continues to offer a pricing advantage versus beef, but that value story still has not translated into strong demand. Production rose 2.2% from the prior week but was 1.5% below the same week last year, leaving year-to-date output up only 0.4%, helped by 1.1% heavier carcass weights. This summer, pork production is expected to track roughly 2% below 2025, but despite that, the market has struggled to gain traction. The USDA pork cutout moved lower last week, driven by weakness in ribs and hams, while loins and bellies posted gains, with bellies nearing their highest levels in a year. The larger concern is demand: USDA lowered its 2026 domestic per capita pork consumption estimate, and 2026 usage is projected to come in near its lowest level in a decade. Export demand has also been uneven, with June pork exports down 4% year over year, though ham shipments to Mexico are up 1% year to date and sitting at a record high, supported by ham prices that are running about 6% below last year.
Outlook: Pork should continue to present relative value, but weak domestic demand and seasonally softer fall pricing, especially in hams and ribs, suggest limited near-term momentum.
Produce
Produce pricing across the major center-of-the-plate support items remained mostly uneventful last week, which is welcome news for operators managing scale. Lettuce and tomatoes were flat week over week, and potatoes continued their expected climb, with prices now positioned to reach 2025 highs as soon as this week as the pre-harvest rally plays out. The biggest watch item is avocados. The USDA has suspended avocado inspections in Michoacán, Mexico, the largest supplier of avocados to the U.S. So far, stateside pricing has held steady, with 48-count Hass avocados basically flat week over week, but if the underlying security issue is not resolved quickly, the market could still see the August upswing many were expecting.
Outlook: Most produce categories look stable near term, but avocado pricing remains the biggest late-summer risk and should stay on procurement watchlists across multi-unit systems.
Dairy
Dairy markets remain mixed, with cheese continuing to stand out as the strongest area of demand. Weekly CME averages moved higher for cheese blocks, cheese barrels, and nonfat dry milk, while butter and dry whey softened. Milk production is seasonally light, but available cream and at least adequate butter inventories are continuing to weigh on butter pricing. Cheese, meanwhile, is benefiting from both domestic and export interest. U.S. cheese exports in June climbed 24% year over year to a fresh record, aided in part by highly competitive pricing: the June CME cheese block average was the second lowest for that month in more than a decade. That made U.S. cheese especially attractive on the global market. Even so, the market still faces a ceiling; unless international cheese prices recover meaningfully, strong exports alone may not be enough to drive a sustained domestic rally.
Outlook: Cheese should remain fundamentally well supported, but broad dairy price inflation looks limited unless global cheese markets strengthen more materially.
Grains
Grain markets were relatively quiet overall, aside from corn’s sharp rally following the August WASDE and Crop Production reports, but wheat remains the more important long-term watch item. Wheat briefly softened last week on reports that Ukraine had proposed a mutual halt on attacks against commercial shipping in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, only for Russia to reject the offer shortly thereafter. That puts the market back into a familiar risk pattern at a time when regional wheat exports would normally be accelerating. The concern is no longer just near-term logistics: there are now reports that some farmers may lack the income needed to prepare for the 2026/27 planting season, raising the possibility that current disruptions evolve into a longer-duration supply issue.
Outlook: Wheat retains meaningful upside risk, and operators with grain-sensitive categories should stay alert to further supply-chain volatility tied to Black Sea shipping disruptions.
Seafood
Seafood pricing was generally calmer in the latest import data, but cod remains a significant exception and a mounting concern for operators with seafood-heavy menus. Across the six key seafood items tracked, none moved more than 7% month over month in June, but frozen cod fillet rose another 5%, extending a four-month rally. Over that stretch, average cod pricing has surged nearly 52%, with new all-time highs in every month, and the data series goes back to 2013. Import volumes improved for a second straight month, which is encouraging, but they still remain below normal seasonal levels. If that recovery continues, it should help cap the rally in the near term and potentially create some downside later in the year.
Outlook: Cod prices still look elevated in the short run, but improving import volumes suggest the market may be nearing its peak within the next one to two months.
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