Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supply remains above last year, but the pace of growth is clearly slowing. Young chicken slaughter rose 0.7% week over week and was 0.3% above the same week last year, while output for the week ending August 15 was 1.1% higher year over year. Year-to-date production is still running 2.4% above 2025 levels, though recent chick placement and broiler egg set data suggest growth could moderate to roughly 1% above year-ago levels through the end of summer. On the pricing side, markets were mixed last week, with tenders, wings, whole birds, and leg quarters all softer, while boneless skinless breasts and thighs moved higher, continuing the white/dark meat divergence that has been a consistent theme this season.
Outlook: Near-term chicken prices may stay pressured by ample Q3 supply, but slowing production growth leaves meaningful upside risk once seasonal demand improves heading into fall.
Beef
Beef production improved modestly from the prior week but remains well below last year. Output rose 1.1% week over week yet was still 4.5% below the same week in 2025, driven largely by a nearly 6% decline in cattle slaughter. The structural picture is tightening further: the August 1 cattle-on-feed inventory was 1.8% above last year, but that reflects cattle spending more time in feedlots rather than any real supply expansion, particularly given that July placements were down 11% year over year. At the consumer level, resistance to elevated beef pricing continues to build. July retail beef prices were 9.4% above last year overall, with sirloin up 7.7% and ground beef up 10.1% from last year and 77% above January 2020 levels.
Outlook: Tight cattle supplies and elevated retail prices should keep beef markets fundamentally supported, even if policy headlines create short-term volatility.
Pork
Pork production remains relatively flat and pricing softened broadly last week. Output increased 1.1% from the prior week but was 0.6% below the same week a year ago, leaving year-to-date production up just 0.4% as heavier hog weights offset a 0.7% decline in hog slaughter. The USDA pork cutout fell nearly 3% on the week, with bellies dropping 4.6% and now sitting 15.4% below last year. Hams and picnics were even weaker, trading more than 20% under year-ago levels, with only ribs posting gains. Adding to the demand-side concern, USDA lowered its 2026 domestic per capita pork consumption estimate to 49.5 pounds, which would rank among the lowest readings in more than a decade. For operators, pork still offers a meaningful pricing advantage versus beef, but translating that value gap into consumer demand has been a persistent challenge this year.
Outlook: With limited production growth and seasonally weak demand, pork prices are likely to remain under pressure into the fall.
Produce
Produce markets were relatively stable overall, though iceberg lettuce posted a notable move. 24-count iceberg lettuce rose 11% week over week, ending a seven-week losing streak after prices had fallen nearly 82% over that stretch. Even with the rebound, current supply conditions do not point to any major shortage, and lettuce prices have historically struggled to hold below the $10 per carton floor for extended periods. The broader produce complex remains calm, with no significant red flags across the major foodservice categories.
Outlook: Produce looks generally steady near term, but lettuce will be worth watching as the market approaches its typical late-September seasonal rally.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed last week, with CME cheese blocks and butter finishing lower while other signals offered support. U.S. milk production in July came in 2.2% above last year, fueled almost entirely by a 2.1% expansion in the milk cow herd rather than any meaningful improvement in per-cow yields. Cooler weather aided output, and back-to-school fluid demand diverted more milk away from manufacturing. Nonfat dry milk was the standout performer, rallying to nine-week highs as domestic and export demand strengthened. That move was reinforced by New Zealand’s latest Global Dairy Trade auction, where skim milk powder jumped 7.6% from the prior event, and a weaker U.S. dollar has added further support by improving the competitiveness of American exports.
Outlook: Dairy markets should stay mixed near term, but strengthening global skim milk powder prices could continue lifting U.S. nonfat dry milk values.
Grains
Grain markets turned higher last week, led by renewed concern over row crop yields following the Pro Farmer annual crop tour. Preliminary results came in below expectations across most of the states surveyed, with especially notable corn yield misses in Iowa and Illinois and weaker-than-expected soybean findings in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. For operators with grain-sensitive categories, the timing matters: corn is already projected to enter the new marketing year with historically thin balance sheets, so any confirmation of lower yields could materially tighten supply expectations and push prices higher in the weeks ahead.
Outlook: If private crop estimates continue to challenge USDA assumptions, corn and soybean markets could see additional upside in the weeks ahead.
Seafood
The seafood category was highlighted this week by unusual volatility in tilapia. Frozen tilapia fillet prices rose 6.5% month over month in June after touching an all-time low in May, marking the eighth consecutive month with a price move greater than 6% in either direction. Lower import volumes helped drive the June rebound, but that supply dynamic may not persist. As tilapia enters its traditionally quieter demand period, the same seasonal softness that typically weighs on the category could limit how far or how long this recovery holds.
Outlook: Tilapia prices may stabilize in the short term, but a full return to more normal seasonal pricing likely will not happen until 2027.
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