seafood Tag

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

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Freshly Picked Insights

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• Restaurant Supply Chains Are Getting Harder To Predict

Produce

Tomato prices have fallen sharply as new supplies from the Eastern U.S. and Mexico enter the market, with expectations of prices returning to historical ranges by late June. Onion markets are stabilizing as new-crop supplies come online, and a significant downturn is expected over the coming weeks. Lettuce remains historically elevated but is projected to normalize by month-end, with iceberg lettuce expected to moderate by mid-June.

Outlook: Expect tomato and onion costs to decline through June, and iceberg lettuce to moderate by mid-June, restoring more normal produce pricing into summer. This creates a favorable window for summer produce promotions.

Grains & Vegetable Oils

The May Crop Production and WASDE reports provided the first 2026/27 balance sheets. Despite a projected over 25% jump in biofuel demand, U.S. soybean oil carryout is forecast to rise slightly year-over-year due to larger production and weaker exports. This presents a fundamentally bearish signal that may not be fully priced into the market yet.

Outlook: Fundamentals suggest potential softening in soybean oil prices, with a gradual downside bias if the market reprices these fundamentals. Staggered purchases and short-term contracts for soybean oil are advised.

Dairy

Most spot dairy items eased last week, with butter being a slight exception. Cheese is trading roughly 12% below last year, and butter is about 30% below, supported by seasonally strong milk production. March cheese exports were strong, but softening global prices may blunt export momentum later in the summer.

Outlook: Dairy pricing is favorable in the near term, particularly for cheese and butter. However, monitor export competitiveness for potential late-summer volatility. Locking in extended coverage now is recommended to protect summer and early-fall menu economics.

Beef

Weekly beef production saw a modest increase of 1.4%, but year-to-date output still trails 2025 by approximately 6.7% due to reduced cattle slaughter. Cutout prices were mixed, with Select finishing above Choice, potentially indicating consumer trade-down. Flanks and chucks strengthened, while briskets and loins softened. The USDA has trimmed its production estimates for Q2 through Q4, suggesting the anticipated feedlot backlog may not materialize.

Outlook: Structural tightness in supply and downgraded USDA forecasts point to sustained upward price pressure across many beef items through the latter half of 2026. While some near-term relief may be seen on specific primal cuts, overall inflation is expected.

Pork

Pork output eased by 3.6% week-over-week and is roughly flat year-over-year. The pork cutout saw a modest gain, led by butts and ribs. Pork bellies have collapsed significantly, down nearly 5% last week and over 16% year-over-year, creating a strong buying opportunity. Exports to Mexico remain very strong, setting a March record, which is expected to provide a price floor for hams.

Outlook: Pork bellies and bacon represent a clear short-term buying window for summer promotions. Hams should find support from robust Mexican demand heading into Q3 and Q4.

Poultry

Domestic chicken production continues to be robust, with year-to-date output up approximately 3% year-over-year. While most items are firming, boneless skinless breasts are down just over 1% and on track to average lower in May than April. Chicken wings are trading near decade-low May levels, and table eggs have ticked up. Chinese chicken imports are projected to fall to their lowest since 2013, limiting potential export upside for U.S. product.

Outlook: Expect continued price pressure and promotional opportunities for breasts and wings. While export flows may offer limited long-term support, the significant value gap versus beef presents a portfolio-level margin opportunity.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet prices fell 8.8% month-over-month in March and remain weak after an extended downturn. This is atypical, as tilapia has historically peaked between March and April. Import flows and seasonal patterns have not provided their usual upward support.

Outlook: Tilapia and some imported whitefish should remain competitively priced in the near term, implying a flat-to-softer price profile. This supports value-oriented menu features and LTOs while helping to manage food costs.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• The More Locations You Add, The Harder Purchasing Gets
• And Big Match Days Only Add More Pressure Across Operations
• Meanwhile, Operators Are Spending More Without Getting More Product

Produce

Lettuce, onions, and tomatoes remained the most volatile produce categories last week. Onion markets showed signs of leveling off sooner than expected, while iceberg lettuce prices remain elevated with limited near-term supply relief. Tomato supplies are beginning to improve, though pricing pressures have not fully eased yet.

Outlook: Produce volatility should gradually improve as May progresses, but operators with multiple locations should continue monitoring regional availability and maintaining flexibility around produce-heavy menu items and promotions.

Grains

Corn, soybean, and wheat markets all moved lower last week as geopolitical fertilizer concerns eased. Wheat markets declined despite ongoing concerns surrounding lower yields and crop abandonment in Kansas. Market volatility remains elevated as traders continue reacting to both weather conditions and global developments.

Outlook: Grain markets may remain highly reactive through planting and harvest season. Operators should continue watching wheat closely, as any confirmed crop deterioration could quickly reverse recent price declines.

Dairy

Most dairy markets softened slightly last week, led by butter, while nonfat dry milk continued climbing despite weakening export demand signals. Domestic pricing premiums remain historically elevated compared to global markets, which may eventually slow export movement further into summer.

Outlook: Butter and broader dairy markets may remain relatively stable near term, but nonfat dry milk could see additional volatility if export demand continues cooling. Multi-unit operators should continue monitoring dairy-heavy menu categories closely heading into summer demand periods.

Beef

Beef production continues trending lower as cattle availability tightens and packer margins remain pressured. Premium grilling cuts like loins and ribs strengthened again last week as seasonal demand builds, while trim markets reached new record-high averages. At the same time, imported lean beef volumes surged to record levels, helping support ground beef supply.

Outlook: Operators should continue planning for elevated beef pricing through grilling season, especially on premium cuts and trim. Imported lean beef may help stabilize some burger programs, but broader beef market volatility is likely to continue throughout Q2.

Pork

Pork production improved modestly last week and remains relatively stable overall despite slightly lower hog slaughter rates. Pork belly pricing dropped sharply, creating potential value opportunities, while ribs and butts moved notably higher as seasonal demand strengthened. Historical trends suggest seasonal pork pricing gains may be more muted this year due to relatively stable supply levels.

Outlook: Pork should continue offering more manageable cost opportunities compared to beef this summer, though operators may still see upward pressure on high-demand grilling items like ribs and butts. Bellies may present strategic promotional opportunities for some concepts.

Poultry

Chicken supplies continue to expand, with production up both week-over-week and year-over-year, keeping pressure on key categories like breasts and wings. Thigh meat continues commanding historically strong premiums over breast meat, while egg prices have fallen sharply as supply rebounds. Strong margins for major poultry producers are also fueling additional expansion plans across the industry.

Outlook: Multi-unit operators may continue seeing favorable contract opportunities on several chicken categories near term, particularly breasts and wings. However, sustained industry expansion could limit major seasonal price spikes while turkey breast markets remain firm.

Seafood

Grain markets may remain highly reactive through planting and harvest season. Operators should continue watching wheat closely, as any confirmed crop deterioration could quickly reverse recent price declines.

Outlook: Seafood markets, particularly cod, may remain elevated short term, but improving supply conditions later this year could create better purchasing opportunities for operators with seafood-forward menus.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• It’s Not Just Food Costs Anymore. It’s Everything Around Them
• So Why Are These Costs So Hard to Control Across Locations?
• And When Traffic Slows, The Pressure on Margins Only Gets Worse

Produce

Produce markets remain elevated, with roma tomatoes exceeding $40, iceberg lettuce climbing past prior highs, and onion pricing still surging across multiple varieties.

Outlook: Relief may begin to emerge mid-May, but near-term pressure remains. Multi-unit operators should focus on supplier diversification and menu flexibility to manage ongoing volatility.

Grains

Grain markets moved modestly higher, with soybeans seeing slight gains after weeks of flat movement, largely driven by soybean oil strength rather than underlying demand shifts.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility. Without new policy or demand catalysts, grain pricing may remain inconsistent, making cost forecasting more challenging.

Dairy

Butter prices slipped and are now trading below cheese, a dynamic not consistently seen since 2021, while global dairy pricing begins to rebalance.

Outlook: Butter may be approaching a pricing floor, but strong milk production and slower demand will likely limit upside. Watch for stabilization rather than sharp increases.

Beef

Beef production increased 1% week-over-week, supported by heavier carcass weights, while trim prices reached record highs. At the same time, premium cuts like ribeyes are down 10.9% year-over-year, pointing to continued trade-down behavior from consumers.

Outlook: Expect continued pricing pressure driven by tight cattle supply. Operators should evaluate cut selection and menu mix closely, as value-driven items may outperform higher-end offerings.

Pork

Pork production eased slightly, down 0.9% week-over-week, with pricing declines across most primals—especially bellies, which dropped 7% from March to April.

Outlook: This is a window to lock in pricing where possible. Seasonal demand typically pushes pork, particularly bellies, higher through summer, making current pricing an opportunity for forward planning.

Poultry

Chicken supply continues to build, with production up 3.3% year-over-year, keeping pressure on pricing for breasts and tenders while wings remain at historically low levels. Egg prices have dropped sharply, falling from $8.50/dozen at their peak to around $0.50 today as production rebounds.

Outlook: Chicken remains a stable category for now, but wings present potential upside risk. Eggs may offer short-term cost relief, but pricing could tighten again as demand normalizes and supply recovery remains incomplete.

Seafood

Snow crab pricing continues to decline, down more than 15% over the past three months, reversing much of the late 2025 gains.

Outlook: Short-term relief is likely to continue, but longer-term pricing trends remain uncertain. Operators should monitor seasonal patterns closely and avoid overcommitting at current levels.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Growth Looks Good. Margin Pressure Doesn’t
• Scaling Without a Strategy Gets Expensive Fast
• The Revenue Opportunity Sitting on Your Menu

Produce

Tomatoes continue to hold elevated pricing, while iceberg lettuce has re-entered a spike due to supply gaps tied to the Yuma-to-Salinas transition. Onion volatility, particularly in whites, is being driven by new crop transitions, though the current spike is expected to be temporary. Weather-driven disruptions are creating short-term procurement challenges across categories.

Outlook: Lettuce will likely remain elevated in the near term, requiring careful cost management across locations. Onion pricing should normalize soon, offering some relief in produce baskets.

Grains

Wheat continues to lead the grains complex as drought conditions intensify in key U.S. growing regions, driving upward price pressure. Soybean markets have stabilized following recent volatility, but broader grain trends remain elevated. Increasing drought severity is raising concerns around yield potential and future cost impacts.

Outlook: Wheat pricing is likely to stay elevated in the near term, impacting flour and grain-based inputs. Longer-term relief may emerge as export demand weakens.

Dairy

Cheese and nonfat dry milk posted gains last week, while butter and whey softened as milk production moves into its seasonal peak. A growing milk herd is helping maintain supply balance, limiting volatility despite steady demand. For multi-unit operators, this supports more predictable pricing across core dairy inputs.

Outlook: Dairy markets should remain relatively stable, with herd expansion helping cap significant upside. Watch for potential softening in export-sensitive categories like cheese.

Beef

Beef production saw a short-term increase but remains significantly constrained year over year, with output down more than 5% due to tight cattle supplies. Cutout values are trending higher, particularly for middle meats, while lean trim markets remain supported by reduced cow and bull slaughter. This continues to put pressure on ground beef-heavy menus and blended protein strategies.

Outlook: Expect sustained elevated pricing across beef categories, especially for trim and ground applications. Strategic sourcing and menu engineering will be critical as supply constraints persist.

Pork

Pork

Pork production softened slightly week over week but remains above prior-year levels, with cutout values rising behind strength in butts and ribs. Bellies are at a 10-week low, presenting a potential cost advantage for operators with flexible menu applications. Lower sow slaughter levels indicate herd rebuilding, which could improve supply availability later this year.

Outlook: Near-term pork pricing remains relatively stable with selective opportunities, particularly on bellies. Improved supply later in 2026 could create more favorable contracting conditions.

Poultry

Chicken production continues to expand, now running more than 3% above last year, which is keeping downward pressure on key cuts like wings and boneless breasts. Eggs remain historically low but carry upside risk, while increased chick placements and a larger broiler flock point to sustained supply strength. For multi-unit operators, this creates an opportunity to stabilize protein costs across menus and contracts.

Outlook: Chicken should remain a favorable center-of-plate option through summer. Locking in value where possible makes sense, but eggs and wings still carry upward pricing risk.

Seafood

Tilapia pricing rebounded in February after reaching seasonal lows, continuing a pattern of significant month-to-month volatility. The category remains highly reactive, with pricing typically rising into spring before easing later in the year. This creates both risk and opportunity depending on timing and purchasing strategy.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility in the near term, with pricing likely peaking before trending downward. Strategic timing of purchases will be key to managing cost exposure.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• It’s Not Just Food Costs Anymore
• So Why Does Purchasing Still Feel So Messy?
• Because Without Visibility, You’re Always Playing Catch-Up

Produce

Produce markets were relatively quiet overall, though key items continue to show pressure. Tomatoes remain elevated due to constrained supply, lettuce rebounded as expected off its floor, and onion markets are gaining traction, especially for red varieties.

Outlook: Expect ongoing variability across categories. Tomato pricing should ease once supply improves, while lettuce is likely to remain within a predictable range. Onion strength may persist short term, but not all varieties are positioned to hold those gains long term.

Grains

Grain markets shifted focus back to wheat, with prices climbing as drought conditions worsened across key growing regions. Limited rainfall and declining crop conditions continue to drive uncertainty in the market.

Outlook: There is still potential for upward pressure in wheat if weather conditions don’t improve. This could have downstream impacts on multiple cost centers, including baked goods and feed-driven proteins, making it important to stay ahead of broader cost implications.

Dairy

Cheese markets held steady week over week, while butter declined and nonfat dry milk continued its sharp upward climb. Seasonal milk production is increasing, supporting overall output, though global market dynamics are starting to influence pricing behavior.

Outlook: Cheese should remain relatively stable in the near term, but rising nonfat dry milk could create underlying support for pricing. Export competitiveness will be key to watch, as softer international markets may limit upside.

Beef

Beef production remains tightly controlled, with output down significantly year over year as cattle availability continues to constrain the market. Even with some minor softening in select cuts, overall pricing remains near record highs due to sustained pressure on the supply side.

Outlook: Beef will continue to challenge margins across locations. With no meaningful supply recovery in sight, operators should focus on mix management, portion strategies, and cross-utilization to protect profitability without sacrificing menu appeal.

Pork

Pork

Pork production is running above last year, contributing to a mixed pricing environment across cuts. Bellies and picnics pulled the market lower, while hams and ribs showed strength, and pork trim declined despite firmness in competing beef trim markets.

Outlook: This is shaping up to be a strategic buying window, particularly for bellies. Pricing is sitting near seasonal lows and could move higher as summer demand builds. Operators with the ability to plan ahead may find opportunities to lock in value before the market turns.

Poultry

Chicken production remains elevated compared to last year, even with a slight week-over-week dip in slaughter. That continued supply is keeping most markets stable, with breasts and wings easing while thighs and tenders hold firm. Turkey breast showed some softness, and eggs are still sitting at favorable levels for buyers.

Outlook: Chicken continues to offer consistency at scale, especially compared to other proteins. With production likely trending higher into summer, expect steady pricing with limited upside risk. Wings are the one area to watch, as demand could tighten that segment faster than the rest.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna experienced significant volatility earlier in the year but is now stabilizing near seasonal lows after a sharp decline in February. Pricing behavior is aligning more closely with typical seasonal patterns.

Outlook: Expect relatively stable pricing in the short term, with limited upward movement until early summer. This creates a more predictable environment for menu planning and promotional strategies featuring tuna.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Growing Fast? Don’t Let Costs Grow Faster
• Is Menu Fatigue Quietly Hurting Your Sales Across Locations?
• Are Small Gaps in Your Operation Quietly Cutting Into Profits?

Produce

Tomato pricing remains volatile but showed signs of leveling off. Avocado increases appear temporary due to supply disruption, while broccoli saw a short-term rebound before an المتوقع seasonal decline.

Outcome: Ongoing produce volatility reinforces the need for flexible sourcing strategies and menu adaptability across locations, particularly for high-volume ingredients like tomatoes and avocados.

Grains

Grain markets trended lower, driven by improved weather conditions and reduced drought pressure in key growing regions.

Outcome: Lower grain costs could begin to ease feed expenses, creating potential downstream relief in protein pricing—something operators should factor into forward planning.

Dairy

Cheese and butter softened slightly, while nonfat dry milk surged to multi-year highs and may be nearing a peak. Seasonal milk production is increasing, supporting broader supply.

Outcome: Stable dairy inputs create an opportunity to protect margins in core menu items, but operators should monitor shifts in milk allocation that could impact cheese pricing longer term.

Beef

Beef supply remains constrained due to reduced slaughter, keeping pricing elevated despite some softening last week. Imports are increasing, but primarily lean product, offering limited relief for center-of-plate cuts.

Outcome: Sustained high beef costs will continue to challenge margins across locations. Multi-unit operators should evaluate menu engineering strategies, spec flexibility, and cross-protein substitution to maintain profitability.

Pork

Pork

Improved pork production is helping stabilize the market, though certain categories like ham are seeing short-term spikes. Pork trim remains elevated due to ongoing substitution from beef.

Outcome: Pork continues to be a strategic lever for cost management, but operators should monitor trim and rib categories closely as substitution demand and seasonal trends evolve.

Poultry

Chicken production is ramping up quickly, with supply expected to hit record levels this year. Prices are still climbing in the near term—especially for breasts and tenders—but that incoming supply should help temper the typical spring surge. Eggs remain at historic lows.

Outcome: Near-term cost pressure on high-demand chicken cuts, but operators with scale can start planning for more favorable contracting opportunities as supply expands. Eggs continue to offer strong margin flexibility.

Seafood

Salmon pricing moved counter to typical seasonal trends, declining early in the year. A rebound is expected, but the market is still stabilizing following last year’s correction.

Outcome: Short-term buying opportunities may exist, but operators should anticipate pricing normalization as seasonal demand builds.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Still Managing Purchasing Like It’s 2010?
• Are You Leaving Rebate Dollars on the Table?
• Is Your Restaurant Running Smoothly or Just Keeping Up?

Produce

24-count iceberg lettuce eased toward a $10/carton floor last week. Roma tomatoes (25 lb. large) accelerated higher, nearing $40/carton again amid volatility expected through April, pending Mexico and Eastern U.S. volume recovery. Hass avocados (48-count) hit a YTD high pre-Semana Santa but remain well below seasonal norms, with potential climbs through June capped near $40/carton absent disruptions.

Outlook: Tomato prices face ongoing April volatility; avocados may rise modestly into summer. Stabilizing lettuce supports baseline planning—secure hedges or alternates for high-volatility items.

Grains

Grains mixed last week amid biofuel news, USDA reports, geopolitics, and weather. Soybean oil stalled post-March despite strong EPA 2026/27 diesel mandate, clouded by crude volatility and demand doubts. Soybeans stayed stable through EPA/USDA updates, possibly eyeing delayed May Trump-Xi talks.

Outlook: Range-bound trading persists until policy/geopolitical clarity; hedge key inputs like oil/meal. Flexible strategies suit the uncertain near-term landscape.

Dairy

CME spot dairy held steady: cheese blocks/barrels up <1%, butter down nearly 2%. Milk production rises seasonally; Easter slowdowns flooded open markets, with Class III below and Class II near class prices. Butter and cheese demand is solid domestically, bolstered by record exports—cheese +30% YoY (monthly record), butter +77% (3rd highest). Feb production gains (cheese +3.9%, butter +9.1% YoY) were fully exported plus surplus.

Outlook: Export strength will balance dairy markets, spurring cheese output via low Class III pricing. Ample availability expected; focus on export-driven upside for procurement leverage.

Beef

Spot cattle trade was light but spiked sharply late last week across major states, despite a 2.2% weekly production rise that still trails 2025 by 6.4% (year-to-date down 7.6%). Cattle slaughter is running 10% below last year, with packer margins turning negative and likely persisting, which may constrain output. Boxed beef cutouts for Choice and Select dipped less than 1%, led by rounds, while briskets, flanks, and most trim firmed—90% domestic trim hit a record high. March delivered record CME feeder and live cattle closes, signaling expansion intent, but Southern Plains drought severely hampers herd rebuilding. U.S. cattle supplies are poised to stay tight for years.

Outlook: Persistently low cattle inventories will sustain elevated beef prices amid packer margin pressure and drought constraints. Plan for supply volatility with diversified sourcing and forward contracting to mitigate cost escalation.

Pork

Pork

Hog prices softened into late week, with year-to-date output 0.4% below last year, yet the USDA pork cutout edged higher on rib and ham strength. Backribs stayed firm amid high beef prices and grilling season demand, though premiums over St. Louis ribs may limit gains. The March USDA Hog and Pigs Report revealed lower-than-expected inventories, breeding herd, pig crop, and farrowings for Dec 2025-Feb 2026, pointing to likely downward revisions in H2 2026 production forecasts (previously +2.8% Q3, +2.4% Q4 YoY). Offsetting this, pig-per-litter yields rose 2.2% YoY to a record for the period, continuing an upward trend since 2017.

Outlook: Tighter pork supplies will prompt USDA forecast cuts for late 2026, though improved litter yields provide some buffer. Prioritize rib and ham procurement while building flexibility into contracts for inventory shifts.

Poultry

Young broiler slaughter eased slightly week-over-week and remains just 0.1% above last year, with USDA projecting a robust Q2 2026 production increase of 300 million pounds from Q1. Broiler egg sets and chick placements are up nearly 2% year-over-year, aligning with supply forecasts. Chicken prices firmed across major markets last week, with boneless skinless breast surging 17% in the past month to its highest since early September. Egg prices fell below $1, turkey breasts softened further, and leg quarters held flat, while feed costs matched March 2025 levels. Producer margins narrowed year-over-year but exceed the five-year average, supporting ongoing production amid record flock efficiencies that could exceed supply expectations later in 2026.

Outlook: Chicken supplies should remain ample into Q2, potentially capping seasonal price gains, though breast and wing segments carry upside risk. Tight monitoring of margins and efficiencies will be key to navigating potential supply surprises.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet hit a 2012-low $1.41/lb in Jan after volatility: Nov collapse cut Dec imports (lifting prices), Jan rebound spurred downturn. Imports bottom Mar-Apr (12/14 yrs), peaking prices then (13/14 yrs)—likely firming now, downtrending by May.

Outlook: Prices to peak through Apr-May on seasonal lows, then decline. Time purchases for post-May value; monitor import data for volatility.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• You Fixed Food Costs… So Why Are Your Margins Still Shrinking?
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Produce

Iceberg lettuce is approaching the $10–$15 carton range, offering cost relief across high-volume menu items. Tomatoes remain a pressure point due to Eastern U.S. supply gaps, while oranges are holding around $30 per carton, above seasonal norms.

Outlook: Lock in favorable pricing where possible and consider menu flexibility around tomatoes as volatility continues.

Grains

Grain markets are reacting to updated renewable fuel mandates, with stronger biofuel demand supporting soybean oil. However, delayed import penalties to 2028 are creating longer-term uncertainty around domestic demand recovery.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility, with potential downstream impacts on feed costs and center-of-plate proteins.

Dairy

Cheese markets are strengthening, with blocks at $1.6305, supported by seasonal milk production increases, while butter remains tighter at $1.8155. Export demand remains mixed, and rising freight costs continue to influence pricing dynamics.

Outlook: Expect limited short-term relief, with potential seasonal increases in cheese and butter pricing as demand picks up.

Beef

Beef production is down 12.1% year over year, with slaughter volumes tracking nearly 10% below last year, keeping supply tight across the system. Even with slight relief in boxed beef pricing, demand remains strong, with consumption projected to hit a 17-year high.

Outlook: Elevated pricing will persist, making portion control, mix optimization, and strategic sourcing critical across locations.

Pork

Pork

Pork production is up 2.5% year over year, driving softness in key categories like hams, now at two-year lows, and continued pressure on bellies. While total inventory is slightly higher (+0.4%), a 1.5% decline in the breeding herd signals potential tightening later in the year.

Outlook: Lean into lower-cost cuts for short-term margin relief, with potential pricing support emerging later this year.

Poultry

Chicken supply remains strong, with production running 3.1% above last year and expected to stay at least 2% higher through spring based on chick placements. Markets firmed overall, but wings dropped to their lowest level since June 2023, hovering near $1.00 per pound, creating a unique pricing gap across cuts.

Outlook: Favor breast meat and wings for value-driven menu strategies as abundant supply continues to cap pricing upside.

Seafood

Cod prices jumped 11.8% month over month due to lower-than-expected import volumes, disrupting typical seasonal pricing patterns. Tight supply conditions could persist if imports do not rebound ahead of the usual spring recovery.

Outlook: Plan for elevated seafood costs and evaluate alternative species or contract opportunities to manage risk.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

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Expert insights curated weekly.

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Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

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Produce

Roma tomatoes eased from recent highs above $40/carton amid ongoing Mexican and Eastern U.S. supply issues, while iceberg lettuce normalized to mid-January levels and trends sideways; limes surged 19% week-over-week, doubling year-to-date in typical early-March fashion.

Outlook: Tomato volatility lingers with limited upside, iceberg stabilizes, and limes peak soon before summer decline. Implement menu flexibility for tomato/lime items and diversified sourcing to minimize impact on salads, salsas, and beverages.

Grains

Wheat and corn held uptrends despite oil-linked volatility, with wheat underpinned above $5.60; soybeans outperform, potentially drawing acres, ahead of the March Prospective Plantings Report amid geopolitical support.

Outlook: Firmness persists into planting data. Hedge grain-exposed items like bakery/breaded products and monitor reports for inflection points to optimize feed and ingredient costs.

Dairy

CME trading was thin with butter down slightly but supported by strong 82% export demand and tight bulk supply; cheese blocks/barrels softened modestly, while whey and nonfat dry milk edged higher.

Outlook: Butter downside is limited by exports, offering cheese buying opportunities. Buffer butter inventories and lock in cheese pricing for pizza/sandwich concepts to stabilize dairy costs.

Beef

Beef production is down 7.6% year-to-date due to 10% lower slaughter, though heavier dressed weights provide some offset; Choice boxed beef hit six-month highs led by flanks (+16% monthly), loins, and ribs. Demand stays resilient with per-capita consumption up 0.5% despite 14% higher retail prices.

Outlook: Tight supplies should sustain firm pricing near-term. Operators can emphasize value cuts, trim efficiency, and forward contracts for primals to manage costs across premium and value concepts.

Pork

Pork production rose 1.9% week-over-week and 2.1% year-over-year, with year-to-date output marginally lower; cutouts firmed to October highs driven by bellies (+16% monthly) and picnics. Retail prices hit records despite favorable wholesale levels, risking demand.

Outlook: Belly strength may persist, but watch the USDA Hog & Pigs Report for fall relief signals. Secure forward buys for bacon programs now and plan promotional flexibility to balance elevated retail pressures portfolio-wide.

Poultry

Domestic chicken production remains elevated year-to-date, up 3.7% from last year, with thighs gaining 13% over the past four weeks while boneless skinless breasts stay flat against historical March trends and wings dip below $1. USDA projects record per-capita consumption, capturing more protein share from beef and pork.

Outlook: Abundant supply may pressure breast prices further, but thighs offer cost advantages for promotions. Multi-unit operators should prioritize thigh-forward menu engineering and bone-in features across concepts to leverage consumption growth and protect margins.

Seafood

January imports showed volatility with fresh yellowfin tuna up 26% month-over-month to ~$4.40/lb in its typical short-lived seasonal peak after 2025’s weak year.

Outlook: Prices face pressure through May-June post-rally. Stagger tuna buys, explore alternatives, and time seafood features for late summer value across concepts.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Produce markets saw diverging trends last week. Lettuce prices continued easing from their February highs, while Roma tomatoes surged dramatically, climbing more than 76% week over week to $37 per carton due to crop damage in Mexico and freeze impacts in the Eastern U.S.

Outlook: Tomato supply disruptions could keep prices volatile in the near term. Multi-unit operators may need to monitor produce costs closely and consider flexible sourcing or menu adjustments until supply conditions normalize.

Grains

Grain markets continued their recent strength, led by soybean oil along with wheat, corn, and other row crops. Rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting fertilizer and biofuel markets have contributed to the upward momentum.

Outlook: Sustained strength in grain markets could eventually influence feed costs and ripple into protein pricing later in the year. Multi-unit operators should keep an eye on grain trends as a leading indicator for potential shifts in meat and poultry costs.

Dairy

Dairy markets were active last week, with butter showing the largest move. Weekly averages for butter climbed nearly 13%, while cheese prices increased modestly and nonfat dry milk posted gains. Export demand continues to support butter pricing, while domestic demand appears slightly softer.

Outlook: Butter markets may remain supported by international demand, though softer domestic usage could moderate further increases. Cheese supplies remain more available, which may help keep cheese pricing relatively stable for operators managing food costs across multiple units.

Beef

Beef prices trended higher last week, with Choice and Select cutouts rising around 2–3%. Gains were led by rib, loin, flank, and plate primals as seasonal demand patterns begin to build heading into spring. Packers remain cautious, though margins have improved slightly compared to earlier this winter.

Outlook: While beef markets remain firm in the short term, improving drought conditions in key cattle regions could support herd rebuilding over time. In the near term, multi-unit operators should expect beef to remain a higher-cost center and plan promotions carefully relative to alternative proteins.

Pork

Pork production remains elevated, running more than 5% above last year despite a slight week-over-week decline in slaughter. Even with higher supply, the pork cutout increased about 1% last week, supported by a 6% jump in belly prices. Meanwhile, rib prices moved lower, with St. Louis ribs continuing to trade at a steep discount to babybacks.

Outlook: As the industry approaches the spring grilling season, pork prices typically move higher. The current spread between St. Louis and babyback ribs could narrow, presenting potential purchasing opportunities for operators looking to manage protein costs across multiple locations.

Poultry

Chicken production continues to run above last year’s levels, with weekly slaughter reaching 174.9 million head—up both week over week and year over year. Prices moved mixed last week: breasts, thighs, leg quarters, and whole birds edged higher, while wings dropped nearly 9% to their lowest level in seven weeks. Strong production gains have helped prevent the usual seasonal price increases across the chicken complex.

Outlook: Chicken continues to maintain a meaningful price advantage compared to beef, which could influence menu strategy for multi-unit operators looking to balance food costs. If production growth slows closer to USDA projections later this year, breast prices may strengthen, especially if operators increase chicken promotions across menus.

Seafood

Tilapia prices showed signs of stabilizing after a sharp correction earlier in 2025. However, strong import volumes—now near their highest levels since the pandemic—continue to keep supply plentiful.

Outlook: With imports remaining strong, tilapia prices may remain relatively stable in the near term. For operators managing menu mix across multiple locations, tilapia could continue to provide a consistent and cost-effective seafood option.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE