seafood Tag

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

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Produce

Tomato pricing remains volatile but showed signs of leveling off. Avocado increases appear temporary due to supply disruption, while broccoli saw a short-term rebound before an المتوقع seasonal decline.

Outcome: Ongoing produce volatility reinforces the need for flexible sourcing strategies and menu adaptability across locations, particularly for high-volume ingredients like tomatoes and avocados.

Grains

Grain markets trended lower, driven by improved weather conditions and reduced drought pressure in key growing regions.

Outcome: Lower grain costs could begin to ease feed expenses, creating potential downstream relief in protein pricing—something operators should factor into forward planning.

Dairy

Cheese and butter softened slightly, while nonfat dry milk surged to multi-year highs and may be nearing a peak. Seasonal milk production is increasing, supporting broader supply.

Outcome: Stable dairy inputs create an opportunity to protect margins in core menu items, but operators should monitor shifts in milk allocation that could impact cheese pricing longer term.

Beef

Beef supply remains constrained due to reduced slaughter, keeping pricing elevated despite some softening last week. Imports are increasing, but primarily lean product, offering limited relief for center-of-plate cuts.

Outcome: Sustained high beef costs will continue to challenge margins across locations. Multi-unit operators should evaluate menu engineering strategies, spec flexibility, and cross-protein substitution to maintain profitability.

Pork

Pork

Improved pork production is helping stabilize the market, though certain categories like ham are seeing short-term spikes. Pork trim remains elevated due to ongoing substitution from beef.

Outcome: Pork continues to be a strategic lever for cost management, but operators should monitor trim and rib categories closely as substitution demand and seasonal trends evolve.

Poultry

Chicken production is ramping up quickly, with supply expected to hit record levels this year. Prices are still climbing in the near term—especially for breasts and tenders—but that incoming supply should help temper the typical spring surge. Eggs remain at historic lows.

Outcome: Near-term cost pressure on high-demand chicken cuts, but operators with scale can start planning for more favorable contracting opportunities as supply expands. Eggs continue to offer strong margin flexibility.

Seafood

Salmon pricing moved counter to typical seasonal trends, declining early in the year. A rebound is expected, but the market is still stabilizing following last year’s correction.

Outcome: Short-term buying opportunities may exist, but operators should anticipate pricing normalization as seasonal demand builds.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

24-count iceberg lettuce eased toward a $10/carton floor last week. Roma tomatoes (25 lb. large) accelerated higher, nearing $40/carton again amid volatility expected through April, pending Mexico and Eastern U.S. volume recovery. Hass avocados (48-count) hit a YTD high pre-Semana Santa but remain well below seasonal norms, with potential climbs through June capped near $40/carton absent disruptions.

Outlook: Tomato prices face ongoing April volatility; avocados may rise modestly into summer. Stabilizing lettuce supports baseline planning—secure hedges or alternates for high-volatility items.

Grains

Grains mixed last week amid biofuel news, USDA reports, geopolitics, and weather. Soybean oil stalled post-March despite strong EPA 2026/27 diesel mandate, clouded by crude volatility and demand doubts. Soybeans stayed stable through EPA/USDA updates, possibly eyeing delayed May Trump-Xi talks.

Outlook: Range-bound trading persists until policy/geopolitical clarity; hedge key inputs like oil/meal. Flexible strategies suit the uncertain near-term landscape.

Dairy

CME spot dairy held steady: cheese blocks/barrels up <1%, butter down nearly 2%. Milk production rises seasonally; Easter slowdowns flooded open markets, with Class III below and Class II near class prices. Butter and cheese demand is solid domestically, bolstered by record exports—cheese +30% YoY (monthly record), butter +77% (3rd highest). Feb production gains (cheese +3.9%, butter +9.1% YoY) were fully exported plus surplus.

Outlook: Export strength will balance dairy markets, spurring cheese output via low Class III pricing. Ample availability expected; focus on export-driven upside for procurement leverage.

Beef

Spot cattle trade was light but spiked sharply late last week across major states, despite a 2.2% weekly production rise that still trails 2025 by 6.4% (year-to-date down 7.6%). Cattle slaughter is running 10% below last year, with packer margins turning negative and likely persisting, which may constrain output. Boxed beef cutouts for Choice and Select dipped less than 1%, led by rounds, while briskets, flanks, and most trim firmed—90% domestic trim hit a record high. March delivered record CME feeder and live cattle closes, signaling expansion intent, but Southern Plains drought severely hampers herd rebuilding. U.S. cattle supplies are poised to stay tight for years.

Outlook: Persistently low cattle inventories will sustain elevated beef prices amid packer margin pressure and drought constraints. Plan for supply volatility with diversified sourcing and forward contracting to mitigate cost escalation.

Pork

Pork

Hog prices softened into late week, with year-to-date output 0.4% below last year, yet the USDA pork cutout edged higher on rib and ham strength. Backribs stayed firm amid high beef prices and grilling season demand, though premiums over St. Louis ribs may limit gains. The March USDA Hog and Pigs Report revealed lower-than-expected inventories, breeding herd, pig crop, and farrowings for Dec 2025-Feb 2026, pointing to likely downward revisions in H2 2026 production forecasts (previously +2.8% Q3, +2.4% Q4 YoY). Offsetting this, pig-per-litter yields rose 2.2% YoY to a record for the period, continuing an upward trend since 2017.

Outlook: Tighter pork supplies will prompt USDA forecast cuts for late 2026, though improved litter yields provide some buffer. Prioritize rib and ham procurement while building flexibility into contracts for inventory shifts.

Poultry

Young broiler slaughter eased slightly week-over-week and remains just 0.1% above last year, with USDA projecting a robust Q2 2026 production increase of 300 million pounds from Q1. Broiler egg sets and chick placements are up nearly 2% year-over-year, aligning with supply forecasts. Chicken prices firmed across major markets last week, with boneless skinless breast surging 17% in the past month to its highest since early September. Egg prices fell below $1, turkey breasts softened further, and leg quarters held flat, while feed costs matched March 2025 levels. Producer margins narrowed year-over-year but exceed the five-year average, supporting ongoing production amid record flock efficiencies that could exceed supply expectations later in 2026.

Outlook: Chicken supplies should remain ample into Q2, potentially capping seasonal price gains, though breast and wing segments carry upside risk. Tight monitoring of margins and efficiencies will be key to navigating potential supply surprises.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet hit a 2012-low $1.41/lb in Jan after volatility: Nov collapse cut Dec imports (lifting prices), Jan rebound spurred downturn. Imports bottom Mar-Apr (12/14 yrs), peaking prices then (13/14 yrs)—likely firming now, downtrending by May.

Outlook: Prices to peak through Apr-May on seasonal lows, then decline. Time purchases for post-May value; monitor import data for volatility.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce is approaching the $10–$15 carton range, offering cost relief across high-volume menu items. Tomatoes remain a pressure point due to Eastern U.S. supply gaps, while oranges are holding around $30 per carton, above seasonal norms.

Outlook: Lock in favorable pricing where possible and consider menu flexibility around tomatoes as volatility continues.

Grains

Grain markets are reacting to updated renewable fuel mandates, with stronger biofuel demand supporting soybean oil. However, delayed import penalties to 2028 are creating longer-term uncertainty around domestic demand recovery.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility, with potential downstream impacts on feed costs and center-of-plate proteins.

Dairy

Cheese markets are strengthening, with blocks at $1.6305, supported by seasonal milk production increases, while butter remains tighter at $1.8155. Export demand remains mixed, and rising freight costs continue to influence pricing dynamics.

Outlook: Expect limited short-term relief, with potential seasonal increases in cheese and butter pricing as demand picks up.

Beef

Beef production is down 12.1% year over year, with slaughter volumes tracking nearly 10% below last year, keeping supply tight across the system. Even with slight relief in boxed beef pricing, demand remains strong, with consumption projected to hit a 17-year high.

Outlook: Elevated pricing will persist, making portion control, mix optimization, and strategic sourcing critical across locations.

Pork

Pork

Pork production is up 2.5% year over year, driving softness in key categories like hams, now at two-year lows, and continued pressure on bellies. While total inventory is slightly higher (+0.4%), a 1.5% decline in the breeding herd signals potential tightening later in the year.

Outlook: Lean into lower-cost cuts for short-term margin relief, with potential pricing support emerging later this year.

Poultry

Chicken supply remains strong, with production running 3.1% above last year and expected to stay at least 2% higher through spring based on chick placements. Markets firmed overall, but wings dropped to their lowest level since June 2023, hovering near $1.00 per pound, creating a unique pricing gap across cuts.

Outlook: Favor breast meat and wings for value-driven menu strategies as abundant supply continues to cap pricing upside.

Seafood

Cod prices jumped 11.8% month over month due to lower-than-expected import volumes, disrupting typical seasonal pricing patterns. Tight supply conditions could persist if imports do not rebound ahead of the usual spring recovery.

Outlook: Plan for elevated seafood costs and evaluate alternative species or contract opportunities to manage risk.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Roma tomatoes eased from recent highs above $40/carton amid ongoing Mexican and Eastern U.S. supply issues, while iceberg lettuce normalized to mid-January levels and trends sideways; limes surged 19% week-over-week, doubling year-to-date in typical early-March fashion.

Outlook: Tomato volatility lingers with limited upside, iceberg stabilizes, and limes peak soon before summer decline. Implement menu flexibility for tomato/lime items and diversified sourcing to minimize impact on salads, salsas, and beverages.

Grains

Wheat and corn held uptrends despite oil-linked volatility, with wheat underpinned above $5.60; soybeans outperform, potentially drawing acres, ahead of the March Prospective Plantings Report amid geopolitical support.

Outlook: Firmness persists into planting data. Hedge grain-exposed items like bakery/breaded products and monitor reports for inflection points to optimize feed and ingredient costs.

Dairy

CME trading was thin with butter down slightly but supported by strong 82% export demand and tight bulk supply; cheese blocks/barrels softened modestly, while whey and nonfat dry milk edged higher.

Outlook: Butter downside is limited by exports, offering cheese buying opportunities. Buffer butter inventories and lock in cheese pricing for pizza/sandwich concepts to stabilize dairy costs.

Beef

Beef production is down 7.6% year-to-date due to 10% lower slaughter, though heavier dressed weights provide some offset; Choice boxed beef hit six-month highs led by flanks (+16% monthly), loins, and ribs. Demand stays resilient with per-capita consumption up 0.5% despite 14% higher retail prices.

Outlook: Tight supplies should sustain firm pricing near-term. Operators can emphasize value cuts, trim efficiency, and forward contracts for primals to manage costs across premium and value concepts.

Pork

Pork production rose 1.9% week-over-week and 2.1% year-over-year, with year-to-date output marginally lower; cutouts firmed to October highs driven by bellies (+16% monthly) and picnics. Retail prices hit records despite favorable wholesale levels, risking demand.

Outlook: Belly strength may persist, but watch the USDA Hog & Pigs Report for fall relief signals. Secure forward buys for bacon programs now and plan promotional flexibility to balance elevated retail pressures portfolio-wide.

Poultry

Domestic chicken production remains elevated year-to-date, up 3.7% from last year, with thighs gaining 13% over the past four weeks while boneless skinless breasts stay flat against historical March trends and wings dip below $1. USDA projects record per-capita consumption, capturing more protein share from beef and pork.

Outlook: Abundant supply may pressure breast prices further, but thighs offer cost advantages for promotions. Multi-unit operators should prioritize thigh-forward menu engineering and bone-in features across concepts to leverage consumption growth and protect margins.

Seafood

January imports showed volatility with fresh yellowfin tuna up 26% month-over-month to ~$4.40/lb in its typical short-lived seasonal peak after 2025’s weak year.

Outlook: Prices face pressure through May-June post-rally. Stagger tuna buys, explore alternatives, and time seafood features for late summer value across concepts.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Produce markets saw diverging trends last week. Lettuce prices continued easing from their February highs, while Roma tomatoes surged dramatically, climbing more than 76% week over week to $37 per carton due to crop damage in Mexico and freeze impacts in the Eastern U.S.

Outlook: Tomato supply disruptions could keep prices volatile in the near term. Multi-unit operators may need to monitor produce costs closely and consider flexible sourcing or menu adjustments until supply conditions normalize.

Grains

Grain markets continued their recent strength, led by soybean oil along with wheat, corn, and other row crops. Rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting fertilizer and biofuel markets have contributed to the upward momentum.

Outlook: Sustained strength in grain markets could eventually influence feed costs and ripple into protein pricing later in the year. Multi-unit operators should keep an eye on grain trends as a leading indicator for potential shifts in meat and poultry costs.

Dairy

Dairy markets were active last week, with butter showing the largest move. Weekly averages for butter climbed nearly 13%, while cheese prices increased modestly and nonfat dry milk posted gains. Export demand continues to support butter pricing, while domestic demand appears slightly softer.

Outlook: Butter markets may remain supported by international demand, though softer domestic usage could moderate further increases. Cheese supplies remain more available, which may help keep cheese pricing relatively stable for operators managing food costs across multiple units.

Beef

Beef prices trended higher last week, with Choice and Select cutouts rising around 2–3%. Gains were led by rib, loin, flank, and plate primals as seasonal demand patterns begin to build heading into spring. Packers remain cautious, though margins have improved slightly compared to earlier this winter.

Outlook: While beef markets remain firm in the short term, improving drought conditions in key cattle regions could support herd rebuilding over time. In the near term, multi-unit operators should expect beef to remain a higher-cost center and plan promotions carefully relative to alternative proteins.

Pork

Pork production remains elevated, running more than 5% above last year despite a slight week-over-week decline in slaughter. Even with higher supply, the pork cutout increased about 1% last week, supported by a 6% jump in belly prices. Meanwhile, rib prices moved lower, with St. Louis ribs continuing to trade at a steep discount to babybacks.

Outlook: As the industry approaches the spring grilling season, pork prices typically move higher. The current spread between St. Louis and babyback ribs could narrow, presenting potential purchasing opportunities for operators looking to manage protein costs across multiple locations.

Poultry

Chicken production continues to run above last year’s levels, with weekly slaughter reaching 174.9 million head—up both week over week and year over year. Prices moved mixed last week: breasts, thighs, leg quarters, and whole birds edged higher, while wings dropped nearly 9% to their lowest level in seven weeks. Strong production gains have helped prevent the usual seasonal price increases across the chicken complex.

Outlook: Chicken continues to maintain a meaningful price advantage compared to beef, which could influence menu strategy for multi-unit operators looking to balance food costs. If production growth slows closer to USDA projections later this year, breast prices may strengthen, especially if operators increase chicken promotions across menus.

Seafood

Tilapia prices showed signs of stabilizing after a sharp correction earlier in 2025. However, strong import volumes—now near their highest levels since the pandemic—continue to keep supply plentiful.

Outlook: With imports remaining strong, tilapia prices may remain relatively stable in the near term. For operators managing menu mix across multiple locations, tilapia could continue to provide a consistent and cost-effective seafood option.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Tomatoes led produce gains again, with 25 lb. large romas up nearly 15% w/w due to ongoing freeze-related supply disruptions. Iceberg lettuce posted its first weekly decline since early January, falling more than 19% w/w after reaching elevated price levels near $50/carton. Western yield challenges persist.

Outlook: Tomato pricing is unlikely to return to seasonal norms in the near term, particularly with supply uncertainty in both the U.S. and Mexico. Lettuce may have established a short-term ceiling, but supply constraints could keep markets elevated through early spring. Concepts with heavy fresh produce usage should continue active monitoring.

Grains

Corn and soybeans extended their rally, with soybean oil now the top-performing commodity year-to-date. The move is largely driven by speculation around 2026 biofuel blending mandates, which remain unresolved.

Outlook: Grain markets are highly policy-sensitive heading into late March. If EPA mandates come in below expectations, soybean oil and related markets could correct sharply. Until clarity emerges, volatility remains elevated and could influence feed costs and downstream protein pricing.

Dairy

Cheese markets moved modestly higher, with blocks at $1.53/lb and barrels at $1.56/lb. Butter eased slightly to $1.86/lb. Retail demand remains strong, and manufacturing output is robust, keeping supply adequate. Year-to-date block prices remain below both last year and the five-year average.

Outlook: Cheese pricing appears steady with modest upside potential supported by retail and export demand. Butter remains balanced, though heavy production schedules may limit significant short-term spikes. Dairy continues to provide relatively stable input costs compared to other proteins.

Beef

Choice and select cutouts both rose 3% last week, with choice reaching $377.89/cwt as packers slowed harvest to support pricing. Premium middle meats strengthened meaningfully, including ribeyes at $11.35/lb and striploins at $10.11/lb. Ground beef 81% climbed to $3.84/lb, and trim markets also moved higher.

Outlook: Supply discipline is working in the packers’ favor, and strong February shortloin sales are expected to push loin pricing higher through March. Multi-unit concepts featuring steak programs should anticipate continued firmness in middle meats and plan accordingly for Q2 cost pressure.

Pork

The pork cutout increased 2% to $97.38/cwt, supported by a 5% rise in bellies and strength in trim. Loins were mixed, with boneless loins slightly lower at $1.38/lb, while ribs declined 4%. Hams softened 2% amid lighter retail pull.

Outlook: While retail demand remains moderate, freezer restocking and anticipated improvement in export activity may help stabilize the market. Pork continues to offer relative value versus beef, with belly strength worth monitoring for bacon-heavy or LTO-driven concepts.

Poultry

Chicken markets were largely steady, with harvest down 3.5% week-over-week but still up 3.3% year-over-year. Breasts held at $1.47/lb (up 16.5% m/m), tenderloins stayed at $1.52/lb, and wings eased slightly to $1.20/lb but remain 37% below last year. Dark meat continues to strengthen, with boneless/skinless thighs up 7% m/m and 10% y/y. Egg prices fell sharply, down 26% w/w and now 89% below last year.

Outlook: Chicken remains one of the more stable animal proteins heading into March, though dark meat may continue firming. For multi-unit operators, this is a window to evaluate mix optimization and menu positioning before any broader spring demand lift. Eggs remain favorable, but avian influenza risk keeps volatility on the table.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia filets rebounded 11% m/m after a late-2025 decline, fueled by reduced import volumes. Q1 seasonality is historically more volatile, and recent pricing reflects that shift.

Outlook: Tilapia may trend sideways to slightly lower short term before a potential March or April spike. Historically, early spring has marked the annual high for this item, though upside may be capped near $2/lb before easing later in the year. Multi-unit seafood programs should plan for seasonal fluctuation.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Tomatoes and broccoli remain the primary volatility drivers. Roma tomatoes continue holding above $15/carton due to Eastern supply challenges, while broccoli has climbed for four consecutive weeks and could approach $50/carton if Mexican quality issues persist. Iceberg lettuce increases are slowing, signaling potential relief ahead.

Outlook: Tomato pricing may stay elevated longer than previously expected, and broccoli remains a near-term risk. Lettuce could soften over the next month. Multi-location operators should monitor regional supply shifts closely to manage contract alignment and distributor performance.

Grains

Soybeans and wheat continued rallying, while corn eased after failing to push above $4.40. Speculative fund activity appears to be influencing price action, particularly in soybean oil, despite elevated stock levels and uncertainty around 2026 biofuel blending targets.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility in grain markets as policy developments and speculative interest drive price movement. Operators with grain-exposed cost structures should plan for choppiness rather than a clear directional trend.

Dairy

Cheese markets strengthened, with CME blocks rising to $1.51/lb and barrels to $1.47/lb. Butter increased to $1.78/lb, though year-to-date pricing remains well below last year and the five-year average. Production remains near capacity, supporting export activity.

Outlook: While dairy pricing is trending higher short term, strong manufacturing output should help moderate extreme swings. Cheese-heavy menus may see some upward pressure, but butter remains comparatively favorable versus historical averages.

Beef

Cattle futures strengthened, with the February contract reaching $247.50/cwt, while boxed beef cutouts eased slightly. Rib and loin cuts posted modest gains, including boneless heavy ribeye at $10.79/lb, while chucks were mixed and ground beef 81% rose to $3.69/lb. Lower harvest volumes continue to underpin overall beef pricing.

Outlook: Even during February’s typical seasonal slowdown, tighter harvest numbers and significant forward brisket sales (1.1 million pounds out front) suggest beef pricing will remain supported. Multi-unit operators should expect continued firmness in middle meats and briskets as spring demand approaches.

Pork

The pork cutout ticked up to $96.28/cwt, supported by strength in loins, butts, ribs, and bellies. Boneless pork butts rose to $1.47/lb, with 169 loads sold into international markets. Harvest volumes were lower, while retail demand remains soft domestically.

Outlook: Pork is positioned to trend steady to slightly firmer in the coming weeks. Export momentum and freezer inventory rebuilding should offset softer retail demand, creating a relatively stable environment for operators leveraging pork-heavy menus.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest rose sharply to 178.4 million head, up 6.4% week over week and 5.6% year over year, helping stabilize most chicken categories. Boneless skinless breasts moved up to $1.47/lb (up 16.5% month over month but still down 11% year over year), while wings held at $1.21/lb and thigh meat continues posting year-over-year gains. Turkey markets remain significantly elevated due to HPAI-related supply constraints, and egg pricing remains volatile despite a recent week-over-week decline.

Outlook: Improved harvest volumes should keep chicken pricing relatively steady in the near term, though dark meat strength could continue. Turkey and eggs remain higher-risk categories due to ongoing disease pressures and supply limitations, making forward visibility and coverage strategy important for multi-unit systems.

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock prices rose 18.3% month over month in December trade data, reaching their highest level since last February. The rebound has been faster than expected following 2025’s lows.

Outlook: Pollock pricing may soften in March, with a potential April floor near $1.40/lb before gradually firming later in the year. While volatility may moderate compared to prior years, seafood markets remain cyclical and reactive to global trade dynamics.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

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Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce pricing continues to climb toward historically rare levels near $50/carton. Tomato markets showed their first week-over-week decline since mid-December, though freeze damage in the Eastern U.S. continues to support elevated pricing on large romas.

Outlook: Tomatoes may remain elevated for another two to three weeks before easing into late March. Iceberg pricing at extreme levels is historically difficult to sustain, and demand pullback could slow the upward momentum if supply does not improve.

Grains

Soybeans continued to rally, lifting much of the grain complex, supported by reports of a potential U.S.–China trade truce extension. However, weak export sales and strong Brazilian supply are creating uncertainty around the sustainability of the move. May soybean futures remain above $11.

Outlook: While trade optimism is providing short-term support, global supply pressure may limit additional upside. Farmer selling could trigger renewed weakness, though a sharp decline below $11 appears unlikely in the immediate term.

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed, with CME blocks falling to $1.39/lb and barrels steady at $1.44/lb. Butter rose to $1.74/lb but remains well below last year’s and five-year average levels year-to-date. Milk supplies are adequate, and production remains near capacity.

Outlook: Stable milk availability and steady retail demand are keeping cheese markets balanced. Strong domestic and export butter demand should continue to support butter pricing in the near term.

Beef

Cattle futures strengthened 3% to $242.50/cwt, while boxed beef was mixed, with choice at $364.84/cwt and select slightly higher. The loin complex posted gains, including striploins at $9.78/lb and shortloins at $8.20/lb, while ribeyes edged higher to $10.70/lb. Ground beef 81% eased to $3.50/lb, and 90% lean trim rose to $4.25/lb. End cuts remained mixed across chucks and rounds.

Outlook: Lower harvest volumes continue to underpin pricing despite February typically being a softer demand period. With sizable brisket sales already committed and supplies remaining tight, beef markets are expected to stay supported in the near term.

Pork

Hog futures trended lower, though the pork cutout edged up to $95.65/cwt. Loins gained 2% with boneless loins at $1.40/lb, while bone-in butts increased slightly and boneless butts softened. Bellies posted modest gains, spareribs declined, and ham primals were lower. Export activity slowed week-over-week.

Outlook: Lower harvest levels are lending mild support to the cutout. Retail demand remains soft, but rebuilding freezer inventories and improving export activity could stabilize pricing, with the market expected to trend steady to slightly firmer.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 167.7 million head, slightly higher week-over-week but down 1% year-over-year. The National Composite WOG rose to $1.18/lb. Boneless/skinless breasts climbed to $1.45/lb, now up 22% month-over-month, while tenderloins reached $1.52/lb. Wings moved higher to $1.21/lb but remain significantly below last year’s levels. Thigh meat continues to show strength at $1.46/lb, up 16% m/m and 9% y/y. Turkey breasts remain sharply elevated year-over-year, and shell egg pricing rose nearly 10% week-over-week.

Outlook: Seasonal demand and reduced harvest volumes tied to prior storm disruptions are supporting the complex. White meat is firming quickly, while dark meat remains the most stable performer year-over-year. Expect continued near-term strength, particularly in breast and thigh markets.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet pricing declined 9.5% month-over-month in November, reaching its lowest level since tracking began in 2012, driven by seasonal patterns and increased import volumes.

Outlook: A seasonal rebound is possible in March and April before prices soften again heading into late spring, following typical demand cycles.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Produce markets continued to face significant supply pressure. Iceberg lettuce pricing surged into the $40–$50 per carton range due to harvest, yield, and shelf-life challenges. Tomato prices remained elevated amid ongoing cold-weather impacts, though conditions are expected to improve mid-February. Avocados were an outlier, with 48-count Hass prices down 9.2% week over week, defying typical seasonal trends.

Outlook: Lettuce pricing is expected to remain volatile and elevated in the near term, requiring close monitoring across locations. Tomato pricing should begin easing as weather improves, while avocado prices may stay flatter than normal into the first half of the year, offering some cost stability.

Grains

Grain markets moved higher, led by strength in soybeans. Trade optimism increased following announcements of potential Chinese purchases totaling up to 8 million metric tons, on top of 12 million metric tons previously committed. Soybean oil prices responded positively, lifting the broader complex.

Outlook: If export demand is confirmed, soybeans could establish a higher trading range around $10.80–$11.00 per bushel. In the near term, grain markets are expected to remain firm, supporting stable input costs for protein and bakery-related categories.

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed. CME cheese blocks increased to $1.47/lb, up $0.09 w/w, supported by strong retail demand. Butter prices surged $0.22 to $1.71/lb, though remain $0.79 below the five-year average. Severe winter weather caused temporary production and transportation disruptions, impacting spot milk movement.

Outlook: Cheese pricing is expected to stay supported by steady production and retail demand. Butter markets may see continued short-term volatility, but ample cream supplies and moderating logistics challenges should help stabilize pricing longer term.

Beef

Cattle markets were mixed, with the February live cattle contract holding at $235.50/cwt. Boxed beef values eased modestly, with the Choice cutout at $367.25/cwt, though premium loin and rib cuts showed resilience. Boneless heavy ribeyes rose to $10.57/lb, reflecting ongoing strength in higher-end segments. Harvest volumes remained sharply reduced, limiting downside pressure.

Outlook: Despite seasonal demand softness typical for February, reduced harvest levels and significant forward sales—including 2.2 million pounds of Choice shortloins—are expected to keep beef pricing firm, particularly in loin cuts. Operators should plan for continued pressure on premium beef items and lean on portion control and menu engineering strategies.

Pork

Pork markets trended higher, with the pork carcass cutout rising 2% to $95.27/cwt as harvest volumes declined. Strength was led by pork butts and bellies, with the butt primal up 4% to $114.88/cwt. Export demand remained steady, highlighted by 157 loads of boneless pork butts sold internationally, helping absorb supply.

Outlook: Pork pricing is positioned to remain steady to slightly firmer over the coming weeks. While retail demand remains muted, tighter supply and freezer inventory rebuilding should support wholesale pricing, making pork a relatively stable protein option for multi-unit menus.

Poultry

Poultry markets strengthened last week as USDA young chicken harvest declined to 167.3 million head, down 3.3% week over week, driven by storm-related disruptions. White meat continued to lead pricing momentum, with boneless/skinless breasts rising to $1.38/lb, now up 18% month over month. Wings climbed to $1.18/lb, up 19% m/m, though still 39% lower year over year, keeping them attractive for high-volume menu applications. Thigh meat also showed strength, with boneless thighs up 16% m/m.

Outlook: Poultry pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly higher in the near term as supply tightness persists. Multi-unit operators should anticipate continued firmness in white meat and wings while leveraging year-over-year softness in wings to protect margins through strategic menu placement and contract utilization.

Seafood

Snow crab prices continued their rally, with frozen snow crab prices up 15.9% month over month, reaching a new three-year high of $10.69/lb. This follows a 7.1% increase the prior month, extending a long-term uptrend that began in early 2024.

Outlook: Snow crab pricing is expected to remain elevated into early 2026, consistent with seasonal patterns. While some softening may occur later in the year, operators should plan for sustained pressure on premium seafood items in the near term.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• How Restaurant Rebates Quietly Protect Margins as Brands Grow
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Produce

Produce markets saw renewed upward movement, led by lettuce and tomatoes. Lettuce pricing increased as harvest and yield challenges emerged in Western growing regions, accelerating the end of its recent downturn. While pricing has moved higher, iceberg lettuce remains below the elevated $40–$50 per carton levels often seen during peak spring and summer months. Tomato markets strengthened as prolonged cold conditions across the eastern U.S. tightened supply, despite steady production from Mexico.

Outlook: Lettuce pricing may continue to trend higher through late Q1, with additional upside risk into early Q2. Tomato markets are expected to remain firm as cold weather persists.

Grains

Grain markets were mixed, with corn and soybeans trading near even week over week. Wheat prices rallied briefly due to cold-weather concerns in U.S. winter wheat regions and Ukraine. Ukraine is projected to be the seventh-largest wheat exporter globally this year. However, forecasts suggest cold temperatures are unlikely to impact Russia’s primary growing regions, limiting sustained upside.

Outlook: Wheat pricing may ease if weather concerns continue to diminish. The broader grain complex is expected to remain range-bound without new global supply disruptions.

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed. CME block cheese rose $0.03 to $1.38/lb, while barrel cheese increased $0.05 to $1.41/lb, supported by steady production and improving export demand. Spot butter prices declined $0.08 to $1.49/lb, remaining $1.10/lb lower year to date and $0.83/lb below the five-year average. Cream availability remains strong nationally, though some manufacturers reported tightening spot butter availability.

Outlook: Cheese pricing is expected to remain supported in the near term. Butter prices may stabilize, though regional availability differences are likely to persist.

Beef

Cattle markets edged higher, with the CME February cattle contract increasing just over 1% to $235.50/cwt. Despite higher futures, wholesale beef prices softened as seasonal demand eased entering February. The Choice beef cutout declined to $367.66/cwt, while Select fell to $360.72/cwt. Middle meats were mixed, with boneless ribeye prices rising to $10.42/lb, while shortloins declined to $7.73/lb. End cuts, including chucks and rounds, weakened across the board. Ground beef prices moved higher, with 81% lean increasing to $3.89/lb, reflecting tightening trim availability. Harvest volumes declined by double-digit percentages, underscoring continued supply constraints.

Outlook: Beef pricing is expected to remain volatile, driven by tight cattle supplies. Seasonal demand patterns may cap near-term upside, though structural supply pressures persist.

Pork

Pork markets were mixed to lower, with the pork carcass cutout declining 2% to $93.43/cwt. The loin primal held steady at $89.68/cwt, while boneless loins edged higher to $1.39/lb and tenderloins increased to $1.93/lb. The belly primal weakened to $126.84/cwt, down 2% week over week, while the ham primal fell 7% to $81.53/cwt. Trim pricing was mixed, with 42% trim decreasing to $0.54/lb and 72% trim rising to $1.08/lb. Hog harvest volumes were flat week over week.

Outlook: Pork pricing is expected to trend steady to slightly firmer over the next several weeks, supported by freezer inventory rebuilding, even as retail demand remains subdued.

Poultry

Poultry markets strengthened last week as USDA young chicken harvest declined to 172.9 million head, down 2.5% year over year. Production softness and winter weather disruptions pushed pricing higher across much of the complex. Boneless/skinless breasts increased to $1.32/lb, up 14% month over month, while tenderloins rose to $1.47/lb, up 5% month over month. Wings climbed to $1.12/lb, representing a 15% month-over-month increase, though pricing remains 41% below year-ago levels. Turkey pricing remains elevated, with boneless turkey breasts up 185% year over year. Egg markets also saw volatility, with the USDA large eggshell index rising nearly 40% week over week.

Outlook: Short-term firmness is expected as production normalizes following weather-related disruptions. Despite recent increases, poultry pricing remains relatively favorable on a year-over-year basis, though near-term volatility is likely to continue.

Seafood

Seafood markets remained relatively stable compared to the heightened volatility seen earlier in 2025. Frozen cod filets increased 1.6% month over month in October, reflecting reduced import volumes at that time. Import activity is believed to have recovered into the new year, moderating near-term pricing pressure.

Outlook: Seasonal patterns suggest a potential price inflection forming in February, with cod markets historically bottoming in January and peaking later in Q1 or early Q2.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE