seafood Tag

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

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Freshly Picked Insights

• The Purchasing Playbook Is Changing
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Poultry

Chicken slaughter and production rose notably last week (up 10% and 2.7% YoY, respectively), with strong layer efficiency (+5% YoY), but front-half cuts (wings, tenders, breasts) weakened while thighs and leg quarters held firm; table eggs eased toward $0.50/dozen and turkey markets were mostly lower amid ongoing industry recovery from avian flu, with April output up 9.6% YoY but still historically low.

Outlook: Chicken and turkey supplies are expected to build steadily in the coming months, likely keeping pressure on front-half chicken prices while supporting a gradual turkey recovery.

Beef

Beef production jumped 19% week-over-week but remained 4.3% below year-ago levels; markets turned volatile after the first U.S. New World Screwworm detection in Texas since 1966, with choice cutout and trim mostly firm (ribs leading gains) while select beef softened, and hamburger inflation hit 16.4% YoY versus just 2% for steaks.

Outlook: The divergence between strong hamburger/trim pricing and softer steak values is expected to persist amid heightened monitoring costs for herd rebuilding.

Pork

Pork production rose sharply (up 13.6% week-over-week and 4.9% YoY), but hog prices weakened near early-March lows; the USDA cutout climbed more than 3% over the past month (bellies leading gains) while ribs and butts fell, retail pork hit a record high yet remains at a deep discount to beef, and per-capita consumption is projected to grow only 0.6% this year.

Outlook: Limited consumption growth and the recent May cutout decline may temper any seasonal upside in pork markets over the coming months.

Produce

Avocado prices surged more than 80% in the past two weeks to their highest level since May 2025 due to an early end to Mexico’s main harvest, with relief expected late in the month; 24-count iceberg lettuce showed a slight bounce but is expected to stay near the $20/carton level through summer before the typical September/October surge.

Outlook: Avocado buying pressure should ease later this month as the Loca harvest begins earlier than usual, while lettuce prices remain range-bound near $20/carton for most of the summer.

Dairy

CME spot dairy trade was light and mostly lower (NDM and cheese blocks down, butter up), with milk production entering seasonal easing in the Midwest and West; NDM output is tracking 7% higher year-to-date after historic highs earlier this spring, and stocks are rebuilding though still below average.

Outlook: NDM prices have likely peaked, with only limited near-term downside expected as higher output helps rebalance the market.

Grains

The grains sell-off continued, with soybeans joining the losses and weighing on soybean oil’s rally; corn declined amid shifting Corn Belt weather forecasts, with solid underlying demand even as the July contract approached $4.20.

Outlook: Corn may find technical support and attempt a bounce, but negative momentum could push prices toward $4 before stabilization.

Seafood

March snow crab import data showed a modest 7.6% month-over-month gain but marked the final quiet period before the stronger 2026 import season begins; post-COVID price volatility has continued, with recent months interrupting the 2024–2025 recovery.

Outlook: A strong import season should keep summer snow crab price gains more muted than in prior decades and could open the door for a later-year downturn.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

The poultry market experienced a holiday-induced dip in slaughter last week, yet year-to-date production remains positive. While breast meat and wing prices are declining, indicating increased supply relative to demand, other cuts like tenders and thighs are firm, with thighs showing a notable premium. Egg prices are at very low levels. Despite historically low wing inventories, expanding production has driven prices down significantly.

Outlook: Ample overall production is expected to keep a lid on major price rallies for most chicken products, although specific cuts like wings and dark meat may see some seasonal strength.

Beef

Beef production saw a sharp seasonal decline due to the holiday, though it remains close to last year’s levels. Fed cattle prices softened, and the boxed beef complex was mixed, with choice cuts rising and select cuts falling. Notably, some primal cuts like loin and rib are now trading below year-ago prices. Increased feedlot inventories and lagging marketings suggest a buildup of cattle, pointing towards larger beef supplies ahead.

Outlook: Anticipate a potential increase in market-ready cattle and beef production in the coming months, which could lead to downward price pressure across many beef items.

Pork

Hog slaughter was lighter due to the holiday, but heavier carcass weights resulted in a slight increase in pork production compared to last year. Despite this, hog prices faced pressure. The pork cutout has seen broad gains, with pork butt being a standout performer, rallying significantly and trading above year-ago levels. Pork inventories are tighter year-over-year, particularly for butts and bellies, which are at multi-year lows.

Outlook: Tight inventories for pork butts and bellies, combined with seasonal demand, are likely to drive prices upward for these specific cuts through the summer.

Produce

Prices for tomatoes, lettuce, and onions have continued to decrease from recent highs, though the downward trend for tomatoes is slowing. Avocados and potatoes have shown notable price increases, with potatoes beginning their typical summer rally slightly ahead of schedule. Avocado prices are strong due to the early end of Mexico’s main crop.

Outlook: Expect continued price appreciation for potatoes and avocados as supplies are constrained and seasonal demand increases, while tomatoes, lettuce, and onions are likely to stabilize or see further minor declines.

Dairy

Spot dairy markets were mixed, with nonfat dry milk and cheese prices declining while butter and dry whey increased. Nonfat dry milk appears to have topped out. U.S. milk production remains strong, up significantly year-over-year, driven by herd growth and improved yields, with a strong two-year growth rate.

Outlook: The persistently high milk production levels are expected to exert downward pressure on cheese and butter prices, limiting significant upside potential for these commodities.

Grains

Most grain markets finished lower last week. However, soybean oil (SBO) has seen a significant breakout rally, surpassing a key resistance level. This move occurred despite weaker crude oil prices and steady soybean performance. Further upside for SBO may be technically challenging without broader energy market support.

Outlook: Soybean oil may experience continued near-term strength, but sustained rallies beyond historical highs will likely depend on supporting crude oil prices. Other grains appear stable to softer.

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock fillets experienced a substantial price increase in March, reaching their highest point in over a year. This marks a significant recovery after a prolonged period of price declines. While prices corrected in April, the market trend indicates further potential for gains through the fall.

Outlook: Pollock prices are expected to trend upwards through the remainder of the year, suggesting that current levels may not represent the peak for 2026.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Chicken supplies continue expanding, keeping pricing pressure on most poultry categories. Breast meat prices are now down 45% year-over-year, while wings, tenders, and boneless skinless thighs also softened last week. Turkey breast pricing has dropped nearly 20% over the last month as production improves, and USDA data continues pointing to strong chicken supply growth through at least June.

Outlook: Multi-unit operators may continue seeing favorable contract and menu-margin opportunities across several chicken categories this summer. With production expected to remain elevated longer term, poultry should remain one of the more stable center-of-plate proteins from a cost management perspective.

Beef

Beef production remained constrained last week as cattle slaughter stayed well below year-ago levels due to ongoing packer margin pressure. Choice beef cuts moved higher while Select categories softened, creating continued volatility across the complex. At the same time, feedlot inventories and cattle placements improved year-over-year, while potential El Niño conditions could eventually improve pasture conditions in major cattle regions.

Outlook: Beef markets will likely remain highly dynamic for multi-unit operators managing large-scale purchasing and menu consistency. While improved weather could support future herd rebuilding, tighter slaughter supplies may continue creating pricing pressure and volatility across key beef cuts in the near term.

Pork

Pork production eased slightly week-over-week but remained above 2025 levels overall. Pork butts and ribs continued strengthening, with butt pricing now nearly 16% above last year, while bellies continued falling sharply and remain a major factor weighing on the overall pork cutout. USDA still projects 2026 pork production to reach record-high levels.

Outlook: Strong overall pork availability should continue helping stabilize broad pork costs for operators managing multiple locations. Belly weakness may create additional value opportunities for bacon-heavy menus, while elevated butt and rib pricing could continue impacting seasonal promotional planning during peak summer demand.

Produce

Produce markets were noticeably calmer last week as tomatoes, onions, and lettuce continued easing from recent elevated pricing levels. Roma tomatoes moved lower again, while onion and lettuce markets are gradually stabilizing. Attention is now beginning to shift toward avocados as Mexican crop transitions and weaker upcoming supply projections create concerns around tighter summer availability.

Outlook: Operators may continue seeing produce cost relief across several core menu ingredients in the coming weeks, particularly tomatoes and onions. However, avocado pricing could become a larger pressure point this summer, especially for concepts with high-volume usage across multiple locations.

Dairy

Dairy markets weakened again last week, with cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk all posting notable declines. Cheese and butter markets are now trading at least 18% below last year, while milk production continues climbing as the U.S. dairy herd reaches its largest size since 1993. Export demand for nonfat dry milk is also beginning to soften.

Outlook: Multi-unit operators could continue benefiting from favorable dairy pricing through the summer, particularly across cheese-heavy menu categories. Expanding milk supplies and softer exports may help keep dairy costs relatively manageable in the near term.

Grains

Grain markets were relatively subdued last week, with most movement tied to broader geopolitical and energy market developments. Corn prices briefly rallied following announcements around a new U.S.-China agricultural agreement before quickly pulling back as uncertainty around the agreement details remained high. Even without additional Chinese demand, U.S. corn exports remain historically strong.

Outlook: Grain markets may continue reacting to global trade headlines and energy market swings, but overall supply fundamentals remain relatively stable. Operators should continue monitoring grain-driven categories like oils, breading, and feed-sensitive proteins for any downstream pricing movement.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna prices surged 19.5% month-over-month in March, marking one of the sharpest seafood category increases this year. While some rebound was expected following historically weak pricing throughout much of 2025, the strength of the increase exceeded normal seasonal expectations.

Outlook: Tuna markets may continue firming modestly through the summer months as seasonal demand strengthens. Multi-unit operators with seafood-forward menus may want to monitor tuna costs closely as elevated pricing could impact promotional planning and margin management later this season.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Tomato prices have fallen sharply as new supplies from the Eastern U.S. and Mexico enter the market, with expectations of prices returning to historical ranges by late June. Onion markets are stabilizing as new-crop supplies come online, and a significant downturn is expected over the coming weeks. Lettuce remains historically elevated but is projected to normalize by month-end, with iceberg lettuce expected to moderate by mid-June.

Outlook: Expect tomato and onion costs to decline through June, and iceberg lettuce to moderate by mid-June, restoring more normal produce pricing into summer. This creates a favorable window for summer produce promotions.

Grains & Vegetable Oils

The May Crop Production and WASDE reports provided the first 2026/27 balance sheets. Despite a projected over 25% jump in biofuel demand, U.S. soybean oil carryout is forecast to rise slightly year-over-year due to larger production and weaker exports. This presents a fundamentally bearish signal that may not be fully priced into the market yet.

Outlook: Fundamentals suggest potential softening in soybean oil prices, with a gradual downside bias if the market reprices these fundamentals. Staggered purchases and short-term contracts for soybean oil are advised.

Dairy

Most spot dairy items eased last week, with butter being a slight exception. Cheese is trading roughly 12% below last year, and butter is about 30% below, supported by seasonally strong milk production. March cheese exports were strong, but softening global prices may blunt export momentum later in the summer.

Outlook: Dairy pricing is favorable in the near term, particularly for cheese and butter. However, monitor export competitiveness for potential late-summer volatility. Locking in extended coverage now is recommended to protect summer and early-fall menu economics.

Beef

Weekly beef production saw a modest increase of 1.4%, but year-to-date output still trails 2025 by approximately 6.7% due to reduced cattle slaughter. Cutout prices were mixed, with Select finishing above Choice, potentially indicating consumer trade-down. Flanks and chucks strengthened, while briskets and loins softened. The USDA has trimmed its production estimates for Q2 through Q4, suggesting the anticipated feedlot backlog may not materialize.

Outlook: Structural tightness in supply and downgraded USDA forecasts point to sustained upward price pressure across many beef items through the latter half of 2026. While some near-term relief may be seen on specific primal cuts, overall inflation is expected.

Pork

Pork output eased by 3.6% week-over-week and is roughly flat year-over-year. The pork cutout saw a modest gain, led by butts and ribs. Pork bellies have collapsed significantly, down nearly 5% last week and over 16% year-over-year, creating a strong buying opportunity. Exports to Mexico remain very strong, setting a March record, which is expected to provide a price floor for hams.

Outlook: Pork bellies and bacon represent a clear short-term buying window for summer promotions. Hams should find support from robust Mexican demand heading into Q3 and Q4.

Poultry

Domestic chicken production continues to be robust, with year-to-date output up approximately 3% year-over-year. While most items are firming, boneless skinless breasts are down just over 1% and on track to average lower in May than April. Chicken wings are trading near decade-low May levels, and table eggs have ticked up. Chinese chicken imports are projected to fall to their lowest since 2013, limiting potential export upside for U.S. product.

Outlook: Expect continued price pressure and promotional opportunities for breasts and wings. While export flows may offer limited long-term support, the significant value gap versus beef presents a portfolio-level margin opportunity.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet prices fell 8.8% month-over-month in March and remain weak after an extended downturn. This is atypical, as tilapia has historically peaked between March and April. Import flows and seasonal patterns have not provided their usual upward support.

Outlook: Tilapia and some imported whitefish should remain competitively priced in the near term, implying a flat-to-softer price profile. This supports value-oriented menu features and LTOs while helping to manage food costs.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Lettuce, onions, and tomatoes remained the most volatile produce categories last week. Onion markets showed signs of leveling off sooner than expected, while iceberg lettuce prices remain elevated with limited near-term supply relief. Tomato supplies are beginning to improve, though pricing pressures have not fully eased yet.

Outlook: Produce volatility should gradually improve as May progresses, but operators with multiple locations should continue monitoring regional availability and maintaining flexibility around produce-heavy menu items and promotions.

Grains

Corn, soybean, and wheat markets all moved lower last week as geopolitical fertilizer concerns eased. Wheat markets declined despite ongoing concerns surrounding lower yields and crop abandonment in Kansas. Market volatility remains elevated as traders continue reacting to both weather conditions and global developments.

Outlook: Grain markets may remain highly reactive through planting and harvest season. Operators should continue watching wheat closely, as any confirmed crop deterioration could quickly reverse recent price declines.

Dairy

Most dairy markets softened slightly last week, led by butter, while nonfat dry milk continued climbing despite weakening export demand signals. Domestic pricing premiums remain historically elevated compared to global markets, which may eventually slow export movement further into summer.

Outlook: Butter and broader dairy markets may remain relatively stable near term, but nonfat dry milk could see additional volatility if export demand continues cooling. Multi-unit operators should continue monitoring dairy-heavy menu categories closely heading into summer demand periods.

Beef

Beef production continues trending lower as cattle availability tightens and packer margins remain pressured. Premium grilling cuts like loins and ribs strengthened again last week as seasonal demand builds, while trim markets reached new record-high averages. At the same time, imported lean beef volumes surged to record levels, helping support ground beef supply.

Outlook: Operators should continue planning for elevated beef pricing through grilling season, especially on premium cuts and trim. Imported lean beef may help stabilize some burger programs, but broader beef market volatility is likely to continue throughout Q2.

Pork

Pork production improved modestly last week and remains relatively stable overall despite slightly lower hog slaughter rates. Pork belly pricing dropped sharply, creating potential value opportunities, while ribs and butts moved notably higher as seasonal demand strengthened. Historical trends suggest seasonal pork pricing gains may be more muted this year due to relatively stable supply levels.

Outlook: Pork should continue offering more manageable cost opportunities compared to beef this summer, though operators may still see upward pressure on high-demand grilling items like ribs and butts. Bellies may present strategic promotional opportunities for some concepts.

Poultry

Chicken supplies continue to expand, with production up both week-over-week and year-over-year, keeping pressure on key categories like breasts and wings. Thigh meat continues commanding historically strong premiums over breast meat, while egg prices have fallen sharply as supply rebounds. Strong margins for major poultry producers are also fueling additional expansion plans across the industry.

Outlook: Multi-unit operators may continue seeing favorable contract opportunities on several chicken categories near term, particularly breasts and wings. However, sustained industry expansion could limit major seasonal price spikes while turkey breast markets remain firm.

Seafood

Grain markets may remain highly reactive through planting and harvest season. Operators should continue watching wheat closely, as any confirmed crop deterioration could quickly reverse recent price declines.

Outlook: Seafood markets, particularly cod, may remain elevated short term, but improving supply conditions later this year could create better purchasing opportunities for operators with seafood-forward menus.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Produce markets remain elevated, with roma tomatoes exceeding $40, iceberg lettuce climbing past prior highs, and onion pricing still surging across multiple varieties.

Outlook: Relief may begin to emerge mid-May, but near-term pressure remains. Multi-unit operators should focus on supplier diversification and menu flexibility to manage ongoing volatility.

Grains

Grain markets moved modestly higher, with soybeans seeing slight gains after weeks of flat movement, largely driven by soybean oil strength rather than underlying demand shifts.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility. Without new policy or demand catalysts, grain pricing may remain inconsistent, making cost forecasting more challenging.

Dairy

Butter prices slipped and are now trading below cheese, a dynamic not consistently seen since 2021, while global dairy pricing begins to rebalance.

Outlook: Butter may be approaching a pricing floor, but strong milk production and slower demand will likely limit upside. Watch for stabilization rather than sharp increases.

Beef

Beef production increased 1% week-over-week, supported by heavier carcass weights, while trim prices reached record highs. At the same time, premium cuts like ribeyes are down 10.9% year-over-year, pointing to continued trade-down behavior from consumers.

Outlook: Expect continued pricing pressure driven by tight cattle supply. Operators should evaluate cut selection and menu mix closely, as value-driven items may outperform higher-end offerings.

Pork

Pork production eased slightly, down 0.9% week-over-week, with pricing declines across most primals—especially bellies, which dropped 7% from March to April.

Outlook: This is a window to lock in pricing where possible. Seasonal demand typically pushes pork, particularly bellies, higher through summer, making current pricing an opportunity for forward planning.

Poultry

Chicken supply continues to build, with production up 3.3% year-over-year, keeping pressure on pricing for breasts and tenders while wings remain at historically low levels. Egg prices have dropped sharply, falling from $8.50/dozen at their peak to around $0.50 today as production rebounds.

Outlook: Chicken remains a stable category for now, but wings present potential upside risk. Eggs may offer short-term cost relief, but pricing could tighten again as demand normalizes and supply recovery remains incomplete.

Seafood

Snow crab pricing continues to decline, down more than 15% over the past three months, reversing much of the late 2025 gains.

Outlook: Short-term relief is likely to continue, but longer-term pricing trends remain uncertain. Operators should monitor seasonal patterns closely and avoid overcommitting at current levels.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Tomatoes continue to hold elevated pricing, while iceberg lettuce has re-entered a spike due to supply gaps tied to the Yuma-to-Salinas transition. Onion volatility, particularly in whites, is being driven by new crop transitions, though the current spike is expected to be temporary. Weather-driven disruptions are creating short-term procurement challenges across categories.

Outlook: Lettuce will likely remain elevated in the near term, requiring careful cost management across locations. Onion pricing should normalize soon, offering some relief in produce baskets.

Grains

Wheat continues to lead the grains complex as drought conditions intensify in key U.S. growing regions, driving upward price pressure. Soybean markets have stabilized following recent volatility, but broader grain trends remain elevated. Increasing drought severity is raising concerns around yield potential and future cost impacts.

Outlook: Wheat pricing is likely to stay elevated in the near term, impacting flour and grain-based inputs. Longer-term relief may emerge as export demand weakens.

Dairy

Cheese and nonfat dry milk posted gains last week, while butter and whey softened as milk production moves into its seasonal peak. A growing milk herd is helping maintain supply balance, limiting volatility despite steady demand. For multi-unit operators, this supports more predictable pricing across core dairy inputs.

Outlook: Dairy markets should remain relatively stable, with herd expansion helping cap significant upside. Watch for potential softening in export-sensitive categories like cheese.

Beef

Beef production saw a short-term increase but remains significantly constrained year over year, with output down more than 5% due to tight cattle supplies. Cutout values are trending higher, particularly for middle meats, while lean trim markets remain supported by reduced cow and bull slaughter. This continues to put pressure on ground beef-heavy menus and blended protein strategies.

Outlook: Expect sustained elevated pricing across beef categories, especially for trim and ground applications. Strategic sourcing and menu engineering will be critical as supply constraints persist.

Pork

Pork

Pork production softened slightly week over week but remains above prior-year levels, with cutout values rising behind strength in butts and ribs. Bellies are at a 10-week low, presenting a potential cost advantage for operators with flexible menu applications. Lower sow slaughter levels indicate herd rebuilding, which could improve supply availability later this year.

Outlook: Near-term pork pricing remains relatively stable with selective opportunities, particularly on bellies. Improved supply later in 2026 could create more favorable contracting conditions.

Poultry

Chicken production continues to expand, now running more than 3% above last year, which is keeping downward pressure on key cuts like wings and boneless breasts. Eggs remain historically low but carry upside risk, while increased chick placements and a larger broiler flock point to sustained supply strength. For multi-unit operators, this creates an opportunity to stabilize protein costs across menus and contracts.

Outlook: Chicken should remain a favorable center-of-plate option through summer. Locking in value where possible makes sense, but eggs and wings still carry upward pricing risk.

Seafood

Tilapia pricing rebounded in February after reaching seasonal lows, continuing a pattern of significant month-to-month volatility. The category remains highly reactive, with pricing typically rising into spring before easing later in the year. This creates both risk and opportunity depending on timing and purchasing strategy.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility in the near term, with pricing likely peaking before trending downward. Strategic timing of purchases will be key to managing cost exposure.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Produce markets were relatively quiet overall, though key items continue to show pressure. Tomatoes remain elevated due to constrained supply, lettuce rebounded as expected off its floor, and onion markets are gaining traction, especially for red varieties.

Outlook: Expect ongoing variability across categories. Tomato pricing should ease once supply improves, while lettuce is likely to remain within a predictable range. Onion strength may persist short term, but not all varieties are positioned to hold those gains long term.

Grains

Grain markets shifted focus back to wheat, with prices climbing as drought conditions worsened across key growing regions. Limited rainfall and declining crop conditions continue to drive uncertainty in the market.

Outlook: There is still potential for upward pressure in wheat if weather conditions don’t improve. This could have downstream impacts on multiple cost centers, including baked goods and feed-driven proteins, making it important to stay ahead of broader cost implications.

Dairy

Cheese markets held steady week over week, while butter declined and nonfat dry milk continued its sharp upward climb. Seasonal milk production is increasing, supporting overall output, though global market dynamics are starting to influence pricing behavior.

Outlook: Cheese should remain relatively stable in the near term, but rising nonfat dry milk could create underlying support for pricing. Export competitiveness will be key to watch, as softer international markets may limit upside.

Beef

Beef production remains tightly controlled, with output down significantly year over year as cattle availability continues to constrain the market. Even with some minor softening in select cuts, overall pricing remains near record highs due to sustained pressure on the supply side.

Outlook: Beef will continue to challenge margins across locations. With no meaningful supply recovery in sight, operators should focus on mix management, portion strategies, and cross-utilization to protect profitability without sacrificing menu appeal.

Pork

Pork

Pork production is running above last year, contributing to a mixed pricing environment across cuts. Bellies and picnics pulled the market lower, while hams and ribs showed strength, and pork trim declined despite firmness in competing beef trim markets.

Outlook: This is shaping up to be a strategic buying window, particularly for bellies. Pricing is sitting near seasonal lows and could move higher as summer demand builds. Operators with the ability to plan ahead may find opportunities to lock in value before the market turns.

Poultry

Chicken production remains elevated compared to last year, even with a slight week-over-week dip in slaughter. That continued supply is keeping most markets stable, with breasts and wings easing while thighs and tenders hold firm. Turkey breast showed some softness, and eggs are still sitting at favorable levels for buyers.

Outlook: Chicken continues to offer consistency at scale, especially compared to other proteins. With production likely trending higher into summer, expect steady pricing with limited upside risk. Wings are the one area to watch, as demand could tighten that segment faster than the rest.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna experienced significant volatility earlier in the year but is now stabilizing near seasonal lows after a sharp decline in February. Pricing behavior is aligning more closely with typical seasonal patterns.

Outlook: Expect relatively stable pricing in the short term, with limited upward movement until early summer. This creates a more predictable environment for menu planning and promotional strategies featuring tuna.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

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Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

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Freshly Picked Insights

• Growing Fast? Don’t Let Costs Grow Faster
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Produce

Tomato pricing remains volatile but showed signs of leveling off. Avocado increases appear temporary due to supply disruption, while broccoli saw a short-term rebound before an المتوقع seasonal decline.

Outcome: Ongoing produce volatility reinforces the need for flexible sourcing strategies and menu adaptability across locations, particularly for high-volume ingredients like tomatoes and avocados.

Grains

Grain markets trended lower, driven by improved weather conditions and reduced drought pressure in key growing regions.

Outcome: Lower grain costs could begin to ease feed expenses, creating potential downstream relief in protein pricing—something operators should factor into forward planning.

Dairy

Cheese and butter softened slightly, while nonfat dry milk surged to multi-year highs and may be nearing a peak. Seasonal milk production is increasing, supporting broader supply.

Outcome: Stable dairy inputs create an opportunity to protect margins in core menu items, but operators should monitor shifts in milk allocation that could impact cheese pricing longer term.

Beef

Beef supply remains constrained due to reduced slaughter, keeping pricing elevated despite some softening last week. Imports are increasing, but primarily lean product, offering limited relief for center-of-plate cuts.

Outcome: Sustained high beef costs will continue to challenge margins across locations. Multi-unit operators should evaluate menu engineering strategies, spec flexibility, and cross-protein substitution to maintain profitability.

Pork

Pork

Improved pork production is helping stabilize the market, though certain categories like ham are seeing short-term spikes. Pork trim remains elevated due to ongoing substitution from beef.

Outcome: Pork continues to be a strategic lever for cost management, but operators should monitor trim and rib categories closely as substitution demand and seasonal trends evolve.

Poultry

Chicken production is ramping up quickly, with supply expected to hit record levels this year. Prices are still climbing in the near term—especially for breasts and tenders—but that incoming supply should help temper the typical spring surge. Eggs remain at historic lows.

Outcome: Near-term cost pressure on high-demand chicken cuts, but operators with scale can start planning for more favorable contracting opportunities as supply expands. Eggs continue to offer strong margin flexibility.

Seafood

Salmon pricing moved counter to typical seasonal trends, declining early in the year. A rebound is expected, but the market is still stabilizing following last year’s correction.

Outcome: Short-term buying opportunities may exist, but operators should anticipate pricing normalization as seasonal demand builds.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Freshly Picked Insights

• Still Managing Purchasing Like It’s 2010?
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Produce

24-count iceberg lettuce eased toward a $10/carton floor last week. Roma tomatoes (25 lb. large) accelerated higher, nearing $40/carton again amid volatility expected through April, pending Mexico and Eastern U.S. volume recovery. Hass avocados (48-count) hit a YTD high pre-Semana Santa but remain well below seasonal norms, with potential climbs through June capped near $40/carton absent disruptions.

Outlook: Tomato prices face ongoing April volatility; avocados may rise modestly into summer. Stabilizing lettuce supports baseline planning—secure hedges or alternates for high-volatility items.

Grains

Grains mixed last week amid biofuel news, USDA reports, geopolitics, and weather. Soybean oil stalled post-March despite strong EPA 2026/27 diesel mandate, clouded by crude volatility and demand doubts. Soybeans stayed stable through EPA/USDA updates, possibly eyeing delayed May Trump-Xi talks.

Outlook: Range-bound trading persists until policy/geopolitical clarity; hedge key inputs like oil/meal. Flexible strategies suit the uncertain near-term landscape.

Dairy

CME spot dairy held steady: cheese blocks/barrels up <1%, butter down nearly 2%. Milk production rises seasonally; Easter slowdowns flooded open markets, with Class III below and Class II near class prices. Butter and cheese demand is solid domestically, bolstered by record exports—cheese +30% YoY (monthly record), butter +77% (3rd highest). Feb production gains (cheese +3.9%, butter +9.1% YoY) were fully exported plus surplus.

Outlook: Export strength will balance dairy markets, spurring cheese output via low Class III pricing. Ample availability expected; focus on export-driven upside for procurement leverage.

Beef

Spot cattle trade was light but spiked sharply late last week across major states, despite a 2.2% weekly production rise that still trails 2025 by 6.4% (year-to-date down 7.6%). Cattle slaughter is running 10% below last year, with packer margins turning negative and likely persisting, which may constrain output. Boxed beef cutouts for Choice and Select dipped less than 1%, led by rounds, while briskets, flanks, and most trim firmed—90% domestic trim hit a record high. March delivered record CME feeder and live cattle closes, signaling expansion intent, but Southern Plains drought severely hampers herd rebuilding. U.S. cattle supplies are poised to stay tight for years.

Outlook: Persistently low cattle inventories will sustain elevated beef prices amid packer margin pressure and drought constraints. Plan for supply volatility with diversified sourcing and forward contracting to mitigate cost escalation.

Pork

Pork

Hog prices softened into late week, with year-to-date output 0.4% below last year, yet the USDA pork cutout edged higher on rib and ham strength. Backribs stayed firm amid high beef prices and grilling season demand, though premiums over St. Louis ribs may limit gains. The March USDA Hog and Pigs Report revealed lower-than-expected inventories, breeding herd, pig crop, and farrowings for Dec 2025-Feb 2026, pointing to likely downward revisions in H2 2026 production forecasts (previously +2.8% Q3, +2.4% Q4 YoY). Offsetting this, pig-per-litter yields rose 2.2% YoY to a record for the period, continuing an upward trend since 2017.

Outlook: Tighter pork supplies will prompt USDA forecast cuts for late 2026, though improved litter yields provide some buffer. Prioritize rib and ham procurement while building flexibility into contracts for inventory shifts.

Poultry

Young broiler slaughter eased slightly week-over-week and remains just 0.1% above last year, with USDA projecting a robust Q2 2026 production increase of 300 million pounds from Q1. Broiler egg sets and chick placements are up nearly 2% year-over-year, aligning with supply forecasts. Chicken prices firmed across major markets last week, with boneless skinless breast surging 17% in the past month to its highest since early September. Egg prices fell below $1, turkey breasts softened further, and leg quarters held flat, while feed costs matched March 2025 levels. Producer margins narrowed year-over-year but exceed the five-year average, supporting ongoing production amid record flock efficiencies that could exceed supply expectations later in 2026.

Outlook: Chicken supplies should remain ample into Q2, potentially capping seasonal price gains, though breast and wing segments carry upside risk. Tight monitoring of margins and efficiencies will be key to navigating potential supply surprises.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet hit a 2012-low $1.41/lb in Jan after volatility: Nov collapse cut Dec imports (lifting prices), Jan rebound spurred downturn. Imports bottom Mar-Apr (12/14 yrs), peaking prices then (13/14 yrs)—likely firming now, downtrending by May.

Outlook: Prices to peak through Apr-May on seasonal lows, then decline. Time purchases for post-May value; monitor import data for volatility.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE