Freshly Picked, April 28, 2026

Freshly Picked Insights

• Growth Looks Good. Margin Pressure Doesn’t
• Scaling Without a Strategy Gets Expensive Fast
• The Revenue Opportunity Sitting on Your Menu

Produce

Tomatoes continue to hold elevated pricing, while iceberg lettuce has re-entered a spike due to supply gaps tied to the Yuma-to-Salinas transition. Onion volatility, particularly in whites, is being driven by new crop transitions, though the current spike is expected to be temporary. Weather-driven disruptions are creating short-term procurement challenges across categories.

Outlook: Lettuce will likely remain elevated in the near term, requiring careful cost management across locations. Onion pricing should normalize soon, offering some relief in produce baskets.

Grains

Wheat continues to lead the grains complex as drought conditions intensify in key U.S. growing regions, driving upward price pressure. Soybean markets have stabilized following recent volatility, but broader grain trends remain elevated. Increasing drought severity is raising concerns around yield potential and future cost impacts.

Outlook: Wheat pricing is likely to stay elevated in the near term, impacting flour and grain-based inputs. Longer-term relief may emerge as export demand weakens.

Dairy

Cheese and nonfat dry milk posted gains last week, while butter and whey softened as milk production moves into its seasonal peak. A growing milk herd is helping maintain supply balance, limiting volatility despite steady demand. For multi-unit operators, this supports more predictable pricing across core dairy inputs.

Outlook: Dairy markets should remain relatively stable, with herd expansion helping cap significant upside. Watch for potential softening in export-sensitive categories like cheese.

Beef

Beef production saw a short-term increase but remains significantly constrained year over year, with output down more than 5% due to tight cattle supplies. Cutout values are trending higher, particularly for middle meats, while lean trim markets remain supported by reduced cow and bull slaughter. This continues to put pressure on ground beef-heavy menus and blended protein strategies.

Outlook: Expect sustained elevated pricing across beef categories, especially for trim and ground applications. Strategic sourcing and menu engineering will be critical as supply constraints persist.

Pork

Pork

Pork production softened slightly week over week but remains above prior-year levels, with cutout values rising behind strength in butts and ribs. Bellies are at a 10-week low, presenting a potential cost advantage for operators with flexible menu applications. Lower sow slaughter levels indicate herd rebuilding, which could improve supply availability later this year.

Outlook: Near-term pork pricing remains relatively stable with selective opportunities, particularly on bellies. Improved supply later in 2026 could create more favorable contracting conditions.

Poultry

Chicken production continues to expand, now running more than 3% above last year, which is keeping downward pressure on key cuts like wings and boneless breasts. Eggs remain historically low but carry upside risk, while increased chick placements and a larger broiler flock point to sustained supply strength. For multi-unit operators, this creates an opportunity to stabilize protein costs across menus and contracts.

Outlook: Chicken should remain a favorable center-of-plate option through summer. Locking in value where possible makes sense, but eggs and wings still carry upward pricing risk.

Seafood

Tilapia pricing rebounded in February after reaching seasonal lows, continuing a pattern of significant month-to-month volatility. The category remains highly reactive, with pricing typically rising into spring before easing later in the year. This creates both risk and opportunity depending on timing and purchasing strategy.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility in the near term, with pricing likely peaking before trending downward. Strategic timing of purchases will be key to managing cost exposure.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.