Freshly Picked, May 5, 2026

Freshly Picked Insights

• It’s Not Just Food Costs Anymore. It’s Everything Around Them
• So Why Are These Costs So Hard to Control Across Locations?
• And When Traffic Slows, The Pressure on Margins Only Gets Worse

Produce

Produce markets remain elevated, with roma tomatoes exceeding $40, iceberg lettuce climbing past prior highs, and onion pricing still surging across multiple varieties.

Outlook: Relief may begin to emerge mid-May, but near-term pressure remains. Multi-unit operators should focus on supplier diversification and menu flexibility to manage ongoing volatility.

Grains

Grain markets moved modestly higher, with soybeans seeing slight gains after weeks of flat movement, largely driven by soybean oil strength rather than underlying demand shifts.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility. Without new policy or demand catalysts, grain pricing may remain inconsistent, making cost forecasting more challenging.

Dairy

Butter prices slipped and are now trading below cheese, a dynamic not consistently seen since 2021, while global dairy pricing begins to rebalance.

Outlook: Butter may be approaching a pricing floor, but strong milk production and slower demand will likely limit upside. Watch for stabilization rather than sharp increases.

Beef

Beef production increased 1% week-over-week, supported by heavier carcass weights, while trim prices reached record highs. At the same time, premium cuts like ribeyes are down 10.9% year-over-year, pointing to continued trade-down behavior from consumers.

Outlook: Expect continued pricing pressure driven by tight cattle supply. Operators should evaluate cut selection and menu mix closely, as value-driven items may outperform higher-end offerings.

Pork

Pork production eased slightly, down 0.9% week-over-week, with pricing declines across most primals—especially bellies, which dropped 7% from March to April.

Outlook: This is a window to lock in pricing where possible. Seasonal demand typically pushes pork, particularly bellies, higher through summer, making current pricing an opportunity for forward planning.

Poultry

Chicken supply continues to build, with production up 3.3% year-over-year, keeping pressure on pricing for breasts and tenders while wings remain at historically low levels. Egg prices have dropped sharply, falling from $8.50/dozen at their peak to around $0.50 today as production rebounds.

Outlook: Chicken remains a stable category for now, but wings present potential upside risk. Eggs may offer short-term cost relief, but pricing could tighten again as demand normalizes and supply recovery remains incomplete.

Seafood

Snow crab pricing continues to decline, down more than 15% over the past three months, reversing much of the late 2025 gains.

Outlook: Short-term relief is likely to continue, but longer-term pricing trends remain uncertain. Operators should monitor seasonal patterns closely and avoid overcommitting at current levels.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.