Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supplies continue expanding, keeping pricing pressure on most poultry categories. Breast meat prices are now down 45% year-over-year, while wings, tenders, and boneless skinless thighs also softened last week. Turkey breast pricing has dropped nearly 20% over the last month as production improves, and USDA data continues pointing to strong chicken supply growth through at least June.
Outlook: Multi-unit operators may continue seeing favorable contract and menu-margin opportunities across several chicken categories this summer. With production expected to remain elevated longer term, poultry should remain one of the more stable center-of-plate proteins from a cost management perspective.
Beef
Beef production remained constrained last week as cattle slaughter stayed well below year-ago levels due to ongoing packer margin pressure. Choice beef cuts moved higher while Select categories softened, creating continued volatility across the complex. At the same time, feedlot inventories and cattle placements improved year-over-year, while potential El Niño conditions could eventually improve pasture conditions in major cattle regions.
Outlook: Beef markets will likely remain highly dynamic for multi-unit operators managing large-scale purchasing and menu consistency. While improved weather could support future herd rebuilding, tighter slaughter supplies may continue creating pricing pressure and volatility across key beef cuts in the near term.
Pork
Pork production eased slightly week-over-week but remained above 2025 levels overall. Pork butts and ribs continued strengthening, with butt pricing now nearly 16% above last year, while bellies continued falling sharply and remain a major factor weighing on the overall pork cutout. USDA still projects 2026 pork production to reach record-high levels.
Outlook: Strong overall pork availability should continue helping stabilize broad pork costs for operators managing multiple locations. Belly weakness may create additional value opportunities for bacon-heavy menus, while elevated butt and rib pricing could continue impacting seasonal promotional planning during peak summer demand.
Produce
Produce markets were noticeably calmer last week as tomatoes, onions, and lettuce continued easing from recent elevated pricing levels. Roma tomatoes moved lower again, while onion and lettuce markets are gradually stabilizing. Attention is now beginning to shift toward avocados as Mexican crop transitions and weaker upcoming supply projections create concerns around tighter summer availability.
Outlook: Operators may continue seeing produce cost relief across several core menu ingredients in the coming weeks, particularly tomatoes and onions. However, avocado pricing could become a larger pressure point this summer, especially for concepts with high-volume usage across multiple locations.
Dairy
Dairy markets weakened again last week, with cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk all posting notable declines. Cheese and butter markets are now trading at least 18% below last year, while milk production continues climbing as the U.S. dairy herd reaches its largest size since 1993. Export demand for nonfat dry milk is also beginning to soften.
Outlook: Multi-unit operators could continue benefiting from favorable dairy pricing through the summer, particularly across cheese-heavy menu categories. Expanding milk supplies and softer exports may help keep dairy costs relatively manageable in the near term.
Grains
Grain markets were relatively subdued last week, with most movement tied to broader geopolitical and energy market developments. Corn prices briefly rallied following announcements around a new U.S.-China agricultural agreement before quickly pulling back as uncertainty around the agreement details remained high. Even without additional Chinese demand, U.S. corn exports remain historically strong.
Outlook: Grain markets may continue reacting to global trade headlines and energy market swings, but overall supply fundamentals remain relatively stable. Operators should continue monitoring grain-driven categories like oils, breading, and feed-sensitive proteins for any downstream pricing movement.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna prices surged 19.5% month-over-month in March, marking one of the sharpest seafood category increases this year. While some rebound was expected following historically weak pricing throughout much of 2025, the strength of the increase exceeded normal seasonal expectations.
Outlook: Tuna markets may continue firming modestly through the summer months as seasonal demand strengthens. Multi-unit operators with seafood-forward menus may want to monitor tuna costs closely as elevated pricing could impact promotional planning and margin management later this season.
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