Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here.
Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.
Expert insights curated weekly.
Powered by CommodityONE
Freshly Picked Insights
- Stop Guessing Why Food Costs Keep Creeping Up
- 8 Trends Every Restaurant Operator Needs to Watch Right Now
- Why You Can’t Find Net Income on Your Balance Sheet (And Where to Look Instead)
Poultry
Young chicken slaughter rose slightly (+0.5% YoY), though weekly production dipped 0.3% YoY due to 0.8% lighter bird weights. Year-to-date (YTD) production is up 2.5% over 2025, matching USDA Q3 forecasts. Markets softened across the board, boneless skinless chicken breast has historically averaged lower in December vs. August in 11 of the last 12 years, though wings held firm. Financial results were split among top producers: Pilgrim’s Pride posted its worst quarter in over three years, while Tyson reported its best fiscal Q3 operating income margin in over three years. Table egg and turkey breast prices also declined.
Outlook: While producer margin pressures may signal future supply tightening, seasonal historical trends point to continued softness in chicken breast prices entering the final quarter of the year.
Beef
Weekly beef production dropped 0.5% WoW and 2.7% YoY, with YTD output down 5.6% (reflecting an 8.1% drop in cattle slaughter). Choice and Select cutout values both moved higher. The USDA July Cattle on Feed report showed inventories up 2.2% YoY, but June placements fell 2.9% YoY to a 17-year low for the month, indicating tight supply. Additionally, cattle imports from Mexico are set to resume after a year-plus suspension, though phased imports will likely not impact market supply until Q2 2027 at the earliest.
Outlook: Tight overall cattle supplies and historic low feedlot placements will keep beef prices elevated through the summer before any potential relief from Mexican cattle imports arrives in mid-2027.
Pork
Weekly pork production gained 0.3% WoW but fell 0.9% YoY, while YTD production remains 0.5% above 2025 levels due to heavier weights despite a 0.6% drop in slaughter. Nearby hog futures hit nine-month lows, and the USDA pork cutout fell, primarily driven by a 12% drop in ham prices, though pork bellies reached multi-month highs. The pork cutout historically strengthens in August (higher in August vs. July in 6 of the last 8 years), but seasonal softness in butts, ribs, and hams is expected to weigh on the broader market into September.
Outlook: Despite a potential short-term bump from August seasonal cutout strength, softer demand for hams, trim, and ribs is expected to pull broader pork prices lower heading into next month.
Produce
Core produce items were mostly quiet. 48-count Hass avocados flatlined week-over-week after three weeks of gains, despite normal Mexican supplies. Onion prices appeared to cap out following a prolonged rally. Meanwhile, 24-count iceberg lettuce fell for a sixth consecutive week to drop below $10/carton for the first time since 2023, joining 25 lb. large Roma tomatoes at new YTD lows.
Outlook: Produce markets are anticipated to remain near historical lows over the next month, with any late-summer price bumps for avocados expected to be short-lived.
Dairy
CME spot dairy activity moderated with 28 loads traded on Friday, as cheese and butter prices remained below year-ago levels. Milk output is seasonally lower due to summer heat stress, but domestic cheese demand remains steady, and the discount on U.S. cheese relative to the EU has evaporated. Historically, CME cheese blocks average higher in August vs. July in 9 of the last 11 years, while butter has averaged higher in August for four straight years. Nonfat dry milk is finding a floor near international skim milk powder pricing.
Outlook: Summer heat stress and seasonal dips in milk production should provide modest price support for cheese and butter through the remainder of August.
Grains
Grain markets remained under pressure but found temporary technical support. December soybean oil (SBO) ended a six-day losing streak at its 100-day moving average, though it remains heavily tied to crude oil trends and potential developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Soybeans stabilized due to technical support and ongoing Chinese purchases, but forecasted rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt could undermine price support unless Chinese buying accelerates toward the White House’s 25 million metric ton (MMT) target.
Outlook: Grain prices face downside risk from favorable Midwest rainfall and tied crude oil weakness, unless Chinese export purchases pick up significantly in the near term.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna import prices shifted over 5% in May import data, closely tracking year-ago levels. Tilapia prices experienced downward pressure as import volumes over the last two months trended well above normal, eroding gains from a 19% MoM jump in March. Import volumes across seafood categories are expected to decline through November, supporting a moderate price recovery.
Outlook: Seafood import prices should experience a mild recovery through the second half of the year as import volumes cool, though yellowfin tuna is unlikely to recover all of its historical losses.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive-no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
Want the full report in your inbox everyday?
Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox:
CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.
Expert insights curated weekly.
Powered by CommodityONE
