Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken prices edged higher, but breast meat, tenders and wings remain favorably priced for operators, with tenders running 21% below year-ago levels. Weekly chicken production is trailing last year as producers limit chick placements, while egg and turkey breast markets remain relatively steady.
Outlook: Lower chick placements are expected to support chicken prices through fall and into winter, potentially narrowing today’s buying opportunities.
Beef
Beef production remains below year-ago levels, but lighter supply hasn’t translated into across-the-board price increases. Choice and Select boxed beef prices declined roughly 1% last week, led by briskets, loins and rounds, while trim markets were mixed. Strong imports continue to provide additional supply, helping ease pressure on lean trim.
Outlook: Beef trim prices are expected to remain soft this fall, even as tighter domestic production remains a concern for the broader beef market.
Pork
Pork continues to offer value for operators, with all major cuts priced below year-ago levels—some by nearly 30%. Higher weekly production pushed prices lower across every primal, while weak domestic demand and softer August exports added pressure.
Outlook: Favorable pork pricing should persist through fall, although belly prices may begin to establish a longer-term floor.
Produce
Lettuce remains the biggest produce cost concern, with 24-count iceberg prices climbing 374% over eight consecutive weeks and approaching $50 per carton. Roma tomatoes are also trending higher, while Hass avocado prices resumed their decline after briefly stabilizing near $30 per carton.
Outlook: Lettuce and tomato pricing could remain elevated into November, while avocados offer near-term relief ahead of their typical first- and second-quarter price increases.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed in their underlying drivers, with cheese blocks, nonfat dry milk and whey moving higher last week. Adequate milk supplies continue to support ample cheese and butter production, and cheese inventories remain heavy despite record August exports. Whey stands out as a pressure point, with international price increases helping lift the U.S. market to record highs.
Outlook: Ample supply and flat domestic cheese consumption should limit cheese price increases this fall, while whey remains a cost concern.
Grains
Grain prices declined across the board after the USDA’s October reports pointed to a heavier supply outlook, particularly for corn. A higher corn yield estimate increased projected availability, and stronger demand forecasts were not enough to offset the added supply.
Outlook: Corn prices are likely to remain under pressure unless export demand strengthens enough to absorb the larger projected supply.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock fillet prices jumped 14.2% in August, significantly outpacing the 3.8% increase in frozen cod fillets. Import volumes remained well below normal for a third consecutive month, leaving the U.S. market undersupplied and keeping pressure on pricing.
Outlook: Pollock prices could climb further through year-end, with meaningful relief potentially delayed until well into 2027.
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