Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production slipped last week, down roughly 0.5% week over week, and for the week ending August 22, output was 0.6% lower than the prior week and nearly 2% below last year. Chicken markets were soft across the board, led by a nearly 5% drop in wing prices, while table eggs were flat and turkey breast fell to 17-month lows. On the supply side, revised USDA data showed the broiler layer inventory was stronger than previously expected, with the preliminary August figure up 1.5% versus a year ago.
Outlook: Poultry prices may remain relatively contained in the near term as improving layer inventories suggest production growth could rebound.
Beef
Beef production rose 3.7% from the prior week, but was still 3.1% below the same week last year, and year-to-date output is down 7.9% versus 2025. Boxed beef values were softer, with all primals lower except select ribs, while nearby cattle futures posted their lowest Friday close in 14 months. Supply remains historically tight: the August 1 cattle-on-feed inventory was 1.8% above last year, but July feedlot placements were down 11% year over year, marking the smallest July placement figure in at least three decades.
Outlook: Beef supplies are expected to stay tight this fall, which should keep overall pricing supported even if some categories like trim soften.
Pork
Pork output edged up 0.2% week over week and was 0.5% above last year, leaving year-to-date production up 0.4%. The USDA pork cutout fell to its fourth-lowest weekly level in the last seven months, with hams leading declines, followed by picnics, loins, and bellies. Rib demand has been a relative bright spot, with July 31 inventories down 2.4% from last year and marking the second-smallest July level in 12 years.
Outlook: As production improves seasonally and consumption remains uneven, broader pork prices are likely to trend lower this fall, with ribs potentially holding up better than other cuts.
Produce
Produce saw a little more movement last week, but nothing unusual for late summer. 48-count Hass avocados fell 15% week over week as support from Mexico-related supply disruptions faded, while potatoes appear to have ended their pre-harvest rally at levels similar to last year. 24-count iceberg lettuce and 25 lb. large roma tomatoes both moved higher, though the expectation is that any meaningful rally likely waits until at least mid-September.
Outlook: Produce pricing should remain mostly steady in the near term, with only spot volatility in a few items as the market transitions toward fall.
Dairy
CME spot dairy trade was light, with just 16 loads changing hands for the week. Most dairy markets moved higher except cheese blocks, while nonfat dry milk reached 11-week highs on stronger domestic and export demand. USDA’s July milk production report showed output up 2.2% year over year, driven by a 2.1% larger milk cow herd and a modest 0.1% increase in milk per cow.
Outlook: Better milk supplies should keep cheese and butter relatively manageable near term, although rising feed costs could create margin pressure for producers later on.
Grains
Grains continued their strong run, with wheat and corn gaining more than 5%, and some moves pushing toward double-digit weekly territory. Wheat has been the standout as Black Sea trade disruptions continue, and U.S. wheat export sales have benefited, totaling nearly 800,000 metric tons for the current marketing year over the past two weeks. Soybean oil also recovered, moving back above its 100-day moving average.
Outlook: Grain markets are likely to stay firm as long as Black Sea shipping issues remain unresolved, with wheat especially vulnerable to further upside volatility.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna was one of the biggest movers in the latest data, rising 5.3% month over month in June after two weaker months. Import volumes ran well above normal in April and May, then corrected in June, and are expected to trend lower through November. That pattern suggests tuna prices have likely continued to inch higher through late summer, though at a more measured pace.
Outlook: Yellowfin tuna prices may continue to firm modestly into September, but the back half of the year should be much calmer than the first.
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