Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supply remains ample, even though producers appear to be trying to slow output growth to support pricing. Young chicken slaughter last week was up 0.3% from the prior week and 2.3% ahead of 2025 year to date, but most key chicken markets still moved lower, including wings down 4% and tenders falling to a 43-month low. On the supply side, the August 1 broiler layer inventory was 1.5% above last year, and pounds produced per layer are running a record 4.4% higher year over year, showing just how productive the flock has been.
Outlook: Chicken prices may stay pressured near term unless producers meaningfully reduce flock size, because productivity remains strong even as placements slow.
Beef
Beef production improved week to week but remains well below last year overall, keeping the category fundamentally tight. Output was up 3.7% from the previous week, but still 3.1% below the same week last year, and 2026 year-to-date production is down 5.4% on a 7.9% decline in cattle slaughter. Boxed beef cutouts were lower on the week, with declines led by briskets, flanks, and plates, while one important longer-term supply development is the reopening of cattle imports from Mexico on August 24, with the Douglas, Arizona and St. Teresa, New Mexico ports historically accounting for 63% of imports from Mexico over the last three years.
Outlook: Beef should remain a relatively tight, high-cost protein in the near term, though resumed Mexican cattle imports could gradually ease supply pressure later on.
Pork
Pork supply is growing only modestly, but the market remains soft as seasonal weakness sets in. Last week’s production was up 0.2% week over week and 0.5% above last year, while year-to-date output is only 0.4% higher than 2025 despite a 0.7% decline in hog slaughter. Demand-side weakness showed up in pricing, with the USDA pork cutout falling 1.6% to its lowest level since February, and pork bellies dropping nearly 6% on the week. Historically, pork prices tend to weaken in September, with the pork cutout averaging lower than August in 9 of the last 11 years.
Outlook: Pork pricing likely stays soft through September, especially for bellies and trim, unless demand improves faster than seasonal patterns suggest.
Produce
Produce trends were similar to the prior week, with avocados easing while tomatoes continued to rise. 48-count Hass avocados fell to a four-month low, giving back the remaining gains from late May and returning close to year-ago levels. Meanwhile, 25-lb large Roma tomatoes increased for a third straight week and reached a 14-week high, supported in part by recent heavy rains across key eastern U.S. growing regions.
Outlook: Avocados may stabilize at these lower levels, while tomatoes still have room to move higher heading deeper into the fall market.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed, with fats and cheese softer while milk powders strengthened. Butter fell to its lowest price in more than seven months, and cheese blocks slipped to a nine-week low, while nonfat dry milk climbed to its highest level in over two months. On the production side, the USDA’s July report showed continued expansion: butter production rose 5.5% year over year to a record July level, and cheese production increased 2.1% from last year, also setting a July record.
Outlook: Ample milk and product output should keep butter and cheese markets from rallying sharply, though seasonal pricing patterns suggest cheese could still stay relatively supported into fall.
Grains
The recent grain rally paused, led by weaker wheat and spillover pressure into corn and soybeans. The market is now focused on the USDA’s September Crop Production and WASDE reports, especially after field estimates suggested corn yields may come in below the USDA’s August projections across much of the Corn Belt. With both domestic and global corn balance sheets already tight, any meaningful cut to production could quickly shift market tone back to higher prices.
Outlook: Grain markets may remain volatile, but corn has upside risk if official yield estimates come down and demand does not soften enough to offset it.
Seafood
Pollock prices continued to follow cod higher, extending an uncomfortable uptrend for buyers. Through the June data, frozen Alaskan pollock filet prices increased 3.8% month over month, following cod’s 5% monthly jump. Unlike cod, pollock import volumes did not start trending below normal until June, when they essentially stalled instead of rising seasonally, suggesting supply may stay less than ideal for some time.
Outlook: Pollock prices may not rise dramatically from here, but meaningful relief is unlikely before late fall and fuller supply normalization may not arrive until 2027.
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