Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken markets were mixed last week, but overall pricing remains favorable for buyers. For the week ending September 5, young chicken slaughter rose 1.8% from the previous week and was well above last year because of the Labor Day calendar shift, while year-to-date production is running more than 2% above 2025. On the pricing side, breasts, wings, leg quarters, and WOGS moved lower, tenders were flat, and thighs increased; notably, breasts, tenders, and wings are each trading at least 26% below year-ago levels. Feed costs are climbing, however, and producer margins are under pressure, which could begin to slow supply growth.
Outlook: Poultry pricing should remain relatively buyer-friendly near term, but slower production growth and weaker producer margins could provide more support to chicken markets heading into winter.
Beef
Beef production softened last week, down 3.8% from the prior week and 10.8% from a year ago, largely due to the holiday. The USDA choice boxed beef cutout increased, while select moved lower, and trim markets were mostly down, with 50% trim at its lowest level in 20 months; 85% trim did rebound from recent lows. Longer term, herd expansion remains difficult because pasture conditions are extremely poor, with recent USDA ratings matching the worst levels for this time of year in more than 30 years. Continued cattle imports from Mexico could help offset some supply pressure next year.
Outlook: Beef supplies are likely to stay tight in the near term, though sustained cattle imports from Mexico could modestly improve availability in 2027.
Pork
Pork production declined 0.7% from the previous week and was 10.1% below last year’s level because of the holiday, while 2026 year-to-date output is just 0.1% above last year. Even with lighter production, the USDA pork cutout fell more than 3% on the week, led by an 18% drop in the belly primal, and the overall cutout sits 19.9% below the same week last year. Bellies are down 33% year over year, and pork trim remains especially attractive, with a typical 70% pork blend priced near some of its lowest levels in more than two years.
Outlook: Pork should remain a value protein this fall, with trim and belly markets likely facing additional seasonal weakness.
Produce
Produce was mostly quiet last week, with no major disruptions across the major tracked items. 48-count Hass avocados declined for a fifth straight week and are expected to remain under pressure through at least early October. 25 lb. large roma tomatoes and 24-count iceberg lettuce both extended recent gains, though momentum has slowed, while yellow and white onions may see moderate downside into November and red onions are expected to stay relatively stable through year-end.
Outlook: Produce markets should stay mostly steady, with avocados and onions offering some relief while tomatoes and lettuce continue to trend gradually higher.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed last week. On the CME, cheese blocks, barrels, and butter all moved lower, with butter nearing five-year lows, while whey and nonfat dry milk increased, with nonfat dry milk approaching three-month highs. Export demand has been a bright spot: in July, U.S. butter exports were up 2.4% year over year and set a record for the month, while cheese exports surged 25% from last year to an all-time high. Even so, strong domestic production continues to keep cheese and butter prices relatively subdued.
Outlook: Dairy pricing should remain mixed, but ample domestic production is likely to keep a lid on cheese and butter markets despite strong export demand.
Grains
Grain markets posted another weak week, with Friday’s volatility shaping the final tone. Corn pulled back after the USDA’s latest forecast came in close to expectations, including a 236 million bushel reduction on the supply side and a lower feed/residual demand estimate. Even with that adjustment, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio fell below 10% for the first time in four years, underscoring a still-tight balance sheet. While corn may remain technically vulnerable in the short term, underlying domestic and global supply conditions remain historically tight.
Outlook: Grain markets may stay choppy near term, but tight stocks should continue to provide longer-term price support, especially in corn.
Seafood
Seafood pricing was led higher by yellowfin tuna in the latest July data. Fresh yellowfin tuna rose 11.3% month over month and is now running 16.2% above year-ago levels, recovering much faster than expected after spring weakness. After declining between March and May and only beginning to recover in June, yellowfin has regained a significant amount of lost ground in just two months and could challenge a new year-to-date high in the next round of data.
Outlook: Yellowfin tuna appears poised to stabilize in the near term, with the next meaningful upside risk likely coming during the typical seasonal run-up into the new year.
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