Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken markets remain mostly favorable for operators, supported by production levels that continue to run ahead of last year. Breast meat and tenders are still offering solid value, though wing prices have moved sharply higher in recent weeks and are worth watching closely. More broadly, supply growth may begin to slow as producer economics become more challenging.
Outlook: Poultry should remain one of the more manageable center-of-plate categories near term, but wing markets and any late-season supply tightening could create pockets of volatility.
Beef
Beef continues to be a mixed market, shaped by tight cattle supplies and lower overall production versus last year. Premium steak cuts have shown some recent pricing relief, while ground beef remains historically expensive and continues to pressure operators focused on burgers and other high-volume applications. Imported lean trim is still helping offset some domestic cost pressure.
Outlook: Expect beef to remain a challenging category overall, with some near-term opportunity in premium cuts but continued elevated costs in ground beef.
Pork
Pork remains a comparatively attractive protein from a value standpoint, even as certain items have strengthened. Increased demand has recently pushed bellies and hams higher, while overall supply remains supported by improved production and efficiency gains. The category still offers menu flexibility relative to beef.
Outlook: Pork should continue to present value opportunities, though bacon and ham pricing may stay firm in the near term.
Produce
Produce markets have improved meaningfully, with iceberg lettuce falling sharply from earlier highs and avocado pricing also easing as supply conditions normalize. These shifts are welcome after a more volatile stretch and should provide operators with better planning consistency across key fresh categories.
Outlook: Expect produce conditions to remain more balanced in the near term, with lettuce and avocados offering a more favorable cost environment than earlier this season.
Dairy
Dairy markets are navigating a familiar seasonal push and pull. Summer heat has created some production pressure and supported cheese pricing, but large milk supplies and herd size continue to limit the upside. Butter demand remains steady, helping keep that market well supported.
Outlook: Dairy prices may trend modestly firmer in the short term, but ample milk availability should help prevent a major move higher.
Grains
Grain markets have seen some weather-related volatility, particularly around shifting Corn Belt forecasts, but the broader market has settled as immediate crop concerns eased. At this stage, there is not a strong fundamental driver pushing prices materially higher.
Outlook: Unless weather conditions worsen meaningfully, grain markets are likely to remain relatively contained in the near term.
Seafood
Fresh Atlantic salmon has been one of the steadier proteins in the market following a substantial correction earlier in the year. Pricing remains below year-ago levels, and the category has delivered a more stable cost profile than many buyers experienced last summer.
Outlook: Salmon is expected to remain relatively stable, giving operators a dependable seafood option for near-term menu planning.
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