Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here.
Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.
Expert insights curated weekly.
Powered by CommodityONE
Freshly Picked Insights
- The Purchasing Playbook Is Changing
- Keep Your Menu Fresh Without Creating Operational Chaos
- Why Seafood Remains a Menu Powerhouse
Poultry
Chicken slaughter and production rose notably last week (up 10% and 2.7% YoY, respectively), with strong layer efficiency (+5% YoY), but front-half cuts (wings, tenders, breasts) weakened while thighs and leg quarters held firm; table eggs eased toward $0.50/dozen and turkey markets were mostly lower amid ongoing industry recovery from avian flu, with April output up 9.6% YoY but still historically low.
Outlook: Chicken and turkey supplies are expected to build steadily in the coming months, likely keeping pressure on front-half chicken prices while supporting a gradual turkey recovery.
Beef
Beef production jumped 19% week-over-week but remained 4.3% below year-ago levels; markets turned volatile after the first U.S. New World Screwworm detection in Texas since 1966, with choice cutout and trim mostly firm (ribs leading gains) while select beef softened, and hamburger inflation hit 16.4% YoY versus just 2% for steaks.
Outlook: The divergence between strong hamburger/trim pricing and softer steak values is expected to persist amid heightened monitoring costs for herd rebuilding.
Pork
Pork production rose sharply (up 13.6% week-over-week and 4.9% YoY), but hog prices weakened near early-March lows; the USDA cutout climbed more than 3% over the past month (bellies leading gains) while ribs and butts fell, retail pork hit a record high yet remains at a deep discount to beef, and per-capita consumption is projected to grow only 0.6% this year.
Outlook: Limited consumption growth and the recent May cutout decline may temper any seasonal upside in pork markets over the coming months.
Produce
Avocado prices surged more than 80% in the past two weeks to their highest level since May 2025 due to an early end to Mexico’s main harvest, with relief expected late in the month; 24-count iceberg lettuce showed a slight bounce but is expected to stay near the $20/carton level through summer before the typical September/October surge.
Outlook: Avocado buying pressure should ease later this month as the Loca harvest begins earlier than usual, while lettuce prices remain range-bound near $20/carton for most of the summer.
Dairy
CME spot dairy trade was light and mostly lower (NDM and cheese blocks down, butter up), with milk production entering seasonal easing in the Midwest and West; NDM output is tracking 7% higher year-to-date after historic highs earlier this spring, and stocks are rebuilding though still below average.
Outlook: NDM prices have likely peaked, with only limited near-term downside expected as higher output helps rebalance the market.
Grains
The grains sell-off continued, with soybeans joining the losses and weighing on soybean oil’s rally; corn declined amid shifting Corn Belt weather forecasts, with solid underlying demand even as the July contract approached $4.20.
Outlook: Corn may find technical support and attempt a bounce, but negative momentum could push prices toward $4 before stabilization.
Seafood
March snow crab import data showed a modest 7.6% month-over-month gain but marked the final quiet period before the stronger 2026 import season begins; post-COVID price volatility has continued, with recent months interrupting the 2024–2025 recovery.
Outlook: A strong import season should keep summer snow crab price gains more muted than in prior decades and could open the door for a later-year downturn.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
Want the full report in your inbox everyday?
Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox:
CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.
Expert insights curated weekly.
Powered by CommodityONE
