Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here.
Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.
Expert insights curated weekly.
Powered by CommodityONE
Freshly Picked Insights
- 42% of Restaurant Operators Weren’t Profitable. Are Hidden Costs to Blame?
- How Much Is Indirect Spend Costing Your Restaurant?
- The Margin Protection Strategy Many Restaurant Brands Overlook
Poultry
Chicken production is running above last year (heavier birds + steady egg sets/chick placements), putting overall availability into the summer season. Breast and tender prices have softened (breast at a 20‑week low), while dark‑meat (thigh) prices have recently been elevated because exports have weakened and U.S. dark‑meat demand is at record highs. For operators and buyers this means good supply and buying opportunity for white meat now, but shifting domestic demand dynamics for dark meat.
Outlook: Expect continued ample summer supply and a likely pullback in boneless skinless thigh premiums as domestic absorption stabilizes and seasonal flows normalize.
Beef
Weekly and year‑to‑date beef production are down versus last year, leaving supplies tighter; Choice and Select cutouts moved lower with loins and ribs weakest. Disease concerns (New World Screwworm) and poor pasture conditions complicate herd rebuilding, increasing supply uncertainty. Buyers should prioritize contract coverage for core items, consider alternative cuts for promotions, and plan inventories conservatively.
Outlook: Near‑term supply pressure and price volatility are likely to continue, with upside risk to prices until herd and pasture conditions visibly improve.
Pork
Pork output is modestly above last year (heavier carcass weights offsetting a small drop in slaughter), but the pork cutout weakened recently—driven by a steep fall in butts—while bellies remain much lower year‑over‑year. Most primals are behind last year except ribs, creating mixed opportunities across items (e.g., cost savings on bellies for bacon programs, watch butts for promo timing).
Outlook: Production should remain slightly above 2025 into summer, but expect ongoing primals‑level volatility—opportunistic spot buys and flexible menu plans are advised.
Produce
Lettuce (iceberg) has been the primary driver of produce price volatility with repeated supply gaps pushing 24‑count prices to new year‑to‑date highs; tomatoes, onions and avocados are normalizing. For operators, substitute‑friendly menus, tighter yield controls, and short‑term purchasing strategies will help manage margin risk.
Outlook: Short‑term buying pressure should persist for another one–two weeks, with material relief more likely once seasonal supplies re‑establish later in June.
Dairy
CME trading was active but mostly softer; nonfat dry milk is near three‑month lows as buyers delay purchases, while butter has shown surprising firmness supported by strong April exports (but imports rose too). For foodservice and distribution, NFDM looks defensively priced for buyers willing to wait for lower levels, while butter allocations or forward buys may be prudent if your programs are margin‑sensitive.
Outlook: NFDM faces further near‑term downside risk; butter upside is more limited as narrowing U.S.–international spreads should increase available U.S. supply.
Grains
The overall grains correction slowed—wheat rebounded slightly, soybeans held ground, and corn saw mixed action after South American crop estimates and helpful U.S. rains; soybean oil is the most vulnerable, testing key technical support. For procurement, monitor vegetable oil closely (frying costs) and consider short‑dated coverage or flexible contracts tied to benchmark indices.
Outlook: Expect continued volatility driven by South American crop updates, U.S. weather, and oilseed fundamentals—soybean oil is the key near‑term watch item.
Seafood
Frozen cod fillet prices spiked in April as import volumes hit lows not seen since 2013, pushing prices substantially above last year; early signs suggest imports rebounded in May, which should help ease pressure. Distributors should evaluate alternative whitefish, adjust pricing for high‑cost cod SKUs, and watch May/June import flows.
Outlook: Near‑term cod prices remain elevated, but rising import volumes through May–and into summer—should begin to moderate prices toward year‑end.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
Want the full report in your inbox everyday?
Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox:
CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.
Expert insights curated weekly.
Powered by CommodityONE
