Freshly Picked, September 16, 2025
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Leafy greens are stable out of Salinas with good overall quality, though weather remains a potential risk factor. Tomatoes are variable by region, with grape and cherry varieties tight. Potatoes and onions are steady with new-crop transitions improving supply. Avocados are adequate, though sizing is inconsistent, and berries remain a challenge with district-level variability.
Outlook: Expect modest firmness on leafy greens if heat persists. Tomatoes and berries may remain unstable through short-term harvest windows. Multi-unit operators should build contingency specs and leverage supplier relationships to maintain supply continuity across all locations.
Grains
Grain and flour markets remain stable with harvest pressure providing balance, though freight and logistics continue to influence delivered costs.
Outlook: Pricing is expected to remain largely sideways in the short term. Multi-unit operators should monitor transportation surcharges closely and revisit contracts to ensure regional consistency in supply and pricing.
Dairy
Dairy markets are stable. Cheese blocks are range-bound with balanced demand from foodservice and retail. Butter is beginning to firm ahead of the holiday baking season, while milk supplies remain consistent.
Outlook: Cheese should remain steady in the near term, but butter is positioned to strengthen as Q4 approaches. Operators should review forward contracts for cheese and butter needs, particularly for high-volume pizza, pasta, and dessert programs.
Beef
Beef has eased post-summer, with middle meats like ribeyes and strips settling down from grilling-season highs. Value cuts such as chucks, rounds, and grinds are drawing increased interest for fall menus, while retail demand continues to support grind pricing. Multi-unit operators are leveraging procurement strategies to balance premium offerings with cost-effective applications.
Outlook: Expect slight softening on chucks and rounds, while grinds may stay supported by retail. Corporate teams should review forward buys for Q4 braise-friendly cuts and analyze grind programs to ensure coverage before winter promotions accelerate demand.
Pork
Pork remains mixed. Bellies continue to show volatility, driving bacon cost unpredictability. Conversely, loins and ribs are providing attractive value compared to beef, and hams are holding steady on the back of deli and QSR demand.
Outlook: Bacon will continue to fluctuate, making it difficult to forecast without contracts in place. Operators should consider locking in rib or loin programs to offset volatility, and review alternative protein applications for limited-time offers if bacon costs spike.
Poultry
Poultry markets are steady, with wings continuing to command premiums during peak football-season demand. Breast meat and tenders are balanced, while dark meat remains the most cost-effective option for large-scale menuing. Contracted volumes are covering most demand, but spot buys on wings remain elevated.
Outlook: Wings are likely to stay firm into October. Breast and tender markets show little risk of disruption, but operators should evaluate long-term programs on dark meat to protect margins and build flexibility into LTOs.
Seafood
Seafood supply remains stable across major categories. Whitefish and value-added portions are consistent, and shrimp markets are balanced overall, though premiums exist on preferred sizes. Multi-unit brands continue to benefit from portion-controlled programs that protect consistency and labor.
Outlook: Markets are expected to remain steady, but spec-specific premiums may persist. Operators should lock in contracted sizes where possible and use menu engineering to flex around species when necessary.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
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