Freshly Picked, February 3, 2026
Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Produce markets saw renewed upward movement, led by lettuce and tomatoes. Lettuce pricing increased as harvest and yield challenges emerged in Western growing regions, accelerating the end of its recent downturn. While pricing has moved higher, iceberg lettuce remains below the elevated $40–$50 per carton levels often seen during peak spring and summer months. Tomato markets strengthened as prolonged cold conditions across the eastern U.S. tightened supply, despite steady production from Mexico.
Outlook: Lettuce pricing may continue to trend higher through late Q1, with additional upside risk into early Q2. Tomato markets are expected to remain firm as cold weather persists.
Grains
Grain markets were mixed, with corn and soybeans trading near even week over week. Wheat prices rallied briefly due to cold-weather concerns in U.S. winter wheat regions and Ukraine. Ukraine is projected to be the seventh-largest wheat exporter globally this year. However, forecasts suggest cold temperatures are unlikely to impact Russia’s primary growing regions, limiting sustained upside.
Outlook: Wheat pricing may ease if weather concerns continue to diminish. The broader grain complex is expected to remain range-bound without new global supply disruptions.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed. CME block cheese rose $0.03 to $1.38/lb, while barrel cheese increased $0.05 to $1.41/lb, supported by steady production and improving export demand. Spot butter prices declined $0.08 to $1.49/lb, remaining $1.10/lb lower year to date and $0.83/lb below the five-year average. Cream availability remains strong nationally, though some manufacturers reported tightening spot butter availability.
Outlook: Cheese pricing is expected to remain supported in the near term. Butter prices may stabilize, though regional availability differences are likely to persist.
Beef
Cattle markets edged higher, with the CME February cattle contract increasing just over 1% to $235.50/cwt. Despite higher futures, wholesale beef prices softened as seasonal demand eased entering February. The Choice beef cutout declined to $367.66/cwt, while Select fell to $360.72/cwt. Middle meats were mixed, with boneless ribeye prices rising to $10.42/lb, while shortloins declined to $7.73/lb. End cuts, including chucks and rounds, weakened across the board. Ground beef prices moved higher, with 81% lean increasing to $3.89/lb, reflecting tightening trim availability. Harvest volumes declined by double-digit percentages, underscoring continued supply constraints.
Outlook: Beef pricing is expected to remain volatile, driven by tight cattle supplies. Seasonal demand patterns may cap near-term upside, though structural supply pressures persist.
Pork
Pork markets were mixed to lower, with the pork carcass cutout declining 2% to $93.43/cwt. The loin primal held steady at $89.68/cwt, while boneless loins edged higher to $1.39/lb and tenderloins increased to $1.93/lb. The belly primal weakened to $126.84/cwt, down 2% week over week, while the ham primal fell 7% to $81.53/cwt. Trim pricing was mixed, with 42% trim decreasing to $0.54/lb and 72% trim rising to $1.08/lb. Hog harvest volumes were flat week over week.
Outlook: Pork pricing is expected to trend steady to slightly firmer over the next several weeks, supported by freezer inventory rebuilding, even as retail demand remains subdued.
Poultry
Poultry markets strengthened last week as USDA young chicken harvest declined to 172.9 million head, down 2.5% year over year. Production softness and winter weather disruptions pushed pricing higher across much of the complex. Boneless/skinless breasts increased to $1.32/lb, up 14% month over month, while tenderloins rose to $1.47/lb, up 5% month over month. Wings climbed to $1.12/lb, representing a 15% month-over-month increase, though pricing remains 41% below year-ago levels. Turkey pricing remains elevated, with boneless turkey breasts up 185% year over year. Egg markets also saw volatility, with the USDA large eggshell index rising nearly 40% week over week.
Outlook: Short-term firmness is expected as production normalizes following weather-related disruptions. Despite recent increases, poultry pricing remains relatively favorable on a year-over-year basis, though near-term volatility is likely to continue.
Seafood
Seafood markets remained relatively stable compared to the heightened volatility seen earlier in 2025. Frozen cod filets increased 1.6% month over month in October, reflecting reduced import volumes at that time. Import activity is believed to have recovered into the new year, moderating near-term pricing pressure.
Outlook: Seasonal patterns suggest a potential price inflection forming in February, with cod markets historically bottoming in January and peaking later in Q1 or early Q2.
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