Freshly Picked Insights

• Opening More Locations? Scale Without Losing Control
• Growing Fast? Don’t Let Dollars Slip Through the Cracks
• Too Many Tools, Not Enough Time? Simplify Your Stack

Produce

Avocados dropped to a new YTD low ($45/carton), but supply risks may trigger a reversal soon. Iceberg lettuce and roma tomatoes posted weekly gains, while potatoes continued their upward climb.

Outlook: Produce markets remain stable but are entering a period of potential volatility. Expect seasonal increases in lettuce and tomatoes by September, and consider locking in pricing where possible.

Grains

Grain markets were relatively inactive, except for soybeans, which rebounded nearly 3% w/w after a bullish June crush report and renewed biofuel demand speculation.

Outlook: Soybeans remain susceptible to further price volatility due to policy speculation and export dynamics. Broader grain pricing should remain steady for the near term.

Dairy

Dairy prices edged down across the board. Butter dropped to $2.53/lb, while block and barrel cheese slipped by $0.05 and $0.06 respectively. Tight milk supplies in heat-impacted regions are prompting more spot market activity.

Outlook: Marginal price dips are likely to continue, though supply constraints could lead to regional cost variability. Monitor cream and milk inputs for potential disruption in dairy-heavy concepts.

Beef

Despite a 2% rise in live cattle futures, both choice and select beef cutouts declined. High-value primals like ribeyes saw modest gains, while loins, rounds, and chucks trended lower. Trim was mixed—50% lean trim fell, while 90% lean edged up.

Outlook: With subprimal values sliding and packer margins tightening, expect harvest reductions that could stabilize or slightly lift cattle prices. Multi-unit operators should plan for softer beef pricing but tighter supply control in the short term.

Pork

Hog futures declined, but the pork cutout rose 2% on the strength of hams, loins, and bellies. Butts and ribs weakened, and pork butt exports slowed considerably. Trim values continued upward momentum.

Outlook: Pricing will remain mixed. Hams are expected to firm up ahead of holiday demand, but other cuts may face downward pressure. Operators should monitor tariff volatility and shifting export demand closely.

Poultry

USDA harvest numbers held steady year-over-year, but most wholesale chicken prices declined last week. Boneless/skinless breasts fell to $1.89/lb and are now down 28% month-over-month. Wings rose for the seventh consecutive week to $1.54/lb, while thigh meat prices were mixed. Egg prices increased 4% w/w.

Outlook: A seasonal slowdown and new tariff headwinds could keep poultry prices soft through early fall. White meat remains a strong value-driven menu anchor across units.

Seafood

Cod and tilapia are both trending lower following months of inflated pricing. Cod dropped over 10% month-over-month, while tilapia is nearing seasonal averages.

Outlook: Expect additional softening in cod pricing before it stabilizes. These downward shifts may create smart substitution opportunities across protein categories for cost-effective LTOs or menu innovation.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Freshly Picked Insights

• 6 Reasons Consolidated Concepts Is the Partner Your Growing Brand Needs
• Managing Multiple Restaurant Locations Just Got a Whole Lot Easier
• Still Unsure About GPOs? Let’s Bust the Myths.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce prices have surged, nearly tripling since mid-June due to tightening supplies—an unusual move for this time of year. Potato prices are also climbing in advance of the new crop, with 60- and 70-count Idaho varieties up nearly 40% m/m.

Outlook: Expect produce markets to remain highly volatile through the fall, particularly for lettuce and potatoes. Multi-unit operators should evaluate alternative SKUs and prep solutions to maintain consistency and margins.

Grains

Corn prices continued to fall last week, despite strong U.S. export performance. Optimism around new trade deals didn’t materialize, and expectations for record-breaking crops in both the U.S. and Brazil continue to weigh heavily on the market.

Outlook: The current supply outlook will likely keep grain prices suppressed in the near term. Strategic procurement and hedging discussions may be beneficial heading into Q3.

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices were mostly flat last week. Domestic demand remains steady, though summer heat is tightening milk supply in some regions, pushing cheesemakers to secure additional volumes via the spot market.

Outlook: The dairy market remains steady but sensitive to regional production shifts. Operators should watch for any disruptions that could impact pricing or availability, especially in cheese-heavy menu categories.

Beef

Both choice and select cutouts declined, with mixed movement across primals—striploins fell while tenderloins and shortloins edged higher. Ground beef eased slightly, and 50% trim reached a new all-time high. Volatility remains across middle meats and trimmings.

Outlook: Despite a modest recovery in live cattle, cutout values remain under pressure. Operators should expect softer beef pricing in the short term as packers manage supply and seasonal demand shifts normalize.

Pork

The pork cutout rebounded 3% after the previous week’s sharp drop, led by strong belly and ham markets. Loins and tenderloins held steady, but pork butts and ribs weakened, with export sales for butts falling below expectations.

Outlook: Pork prices are likely to trend downward as global trade uncertainty and tariff speculation contribute to instability. Monitor primals closely for spot buying opportunities.

Poultry

Boneless skinless breast prices dropped sharply last week, now down 30% month-over-month, while wings rose slightly but remain well below last year’s levels. Thigh meat and drumsticks saw little movement, though boneless thigh meat is still up significantly year-over-year. Turkey prices rose, with breasts up 12% and whole birds up 6%.

Outlook: Operators should prepare for a typical seasonal dip in chicken prices, but increased harvest volumes and potential tariff challenges could accelerate the decline. White meat demand is expected to remain resilient due to its cost-effectiveness.

Seafood

Seafood prices dropped across key categories last month, with frozen tilapia down 12%. The decline followed months of inflated pricing and now places tilapia below anticipated late-summer levels. A lack of seasonal import volume increases is also shaping this trend.

Outlook: As import levels normalize, prices are expected to stabilize. Consider leveraging current softness in pricing for upcoming LTOs or protein swaps on core items.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Freshly Picked Insights

• The Hidden Costs Chipping Away at Your Margins—And How to Stop Them
• Short on Staff? Here’s How to Run Leaner, Smarter, and More Profitably
• Deal the Winning Hand: 52 Ways to Unlock Serious Foodservice Value

Produce

Leafy greens, broccoli, cauliflower, and Brussels sprouts are seeing higher prices due to heat and weather impacts. Bell peppers, squash, and asparagus are also tightening—particularly color varieties. Tomatoes, celery, and cucumbers are more stable. Avocados and lemons remain tight, while oranges and limes are stable but under strong demand. Grapes are transitioning to California with green varieties priced highest. Multi-units should focus on spec compliance and category substitution to protect margins.

Grains

Soybean oil saw a sharp dip last week, but market volatility continues due to global tensions and policy shifts. Canola and palm oils also eased. If your units rely on large-volume fryers, consider forward buying or alternate oil blends to hedge against price spikes.

Dairy

Eggs, cheese blocks, and butter are trending lower, offering temporary relief. Cream remains abundant. For concepts using dairy across LTOs or dessert programs, it’s a good time to evaluate pricing resets or extended contracts.

Beef

A potential strike at a major beef plant was avoided, but tight supply continues to drive pricing steady to higher. Strips and top butts are moving faster than ribs, and end cuts are firming due to lean trim demand. If beef is a menu driver across locations, consider tightening specs or optimizing portioning.

Pork

Post-holiday, pork markets softened—especially butts, ribs, and bellies, though the latter remains volatile. Loins are stable, and trim remains strong. Multi-unit operators may want to lock in favorable pricing while the market is down.

Poultry

Tenders remain constrained, with no relief expected this summer. Wing demand is up, tightening supply. Breasts, thighs, and leg meat have stabilized, offering reliable options for center-of-plate value. This is a good time to audit SKUs and assess alternates across locations.

Seafood

Seasonal seafood is front and center. Concepts looking to refresh summer menus can turn to wild salmon, tuna, snapper, swordfish, and lake fish for profitable and high-demand features. Consider cross-utilizing proteins across locations for consistency and waste reduction.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Freshly Picked Insights

• Managing Multiple Locations Just Got Easier
• Ready to Grow? Here’s How to Scale Profitably
• Liquor Cost Eating Into Profits? Fix It Fast.

Produce

Roma tomatoes surged 16.5% w/w to a seven-week high near $14/carton amid seasonal supply transitions. Hass avocado prices continued to ease, and iceberg lettuce remained stable at $10.50/carton.

Outlook: Produce prices are expected to stabilize in the near term as summer crops come online. Romas may soften after a couple more weeks of moderate gains.

Grains

Corn futures rebounded midweek after strong export reports showed CMY sales at 1.677 MMT and NMY at 509K MT. Early week pressure from rapid planting and acreage expectations moderated.

Outlook: While domestic planting could keep prices under pressure, global demand is propping up the market. Expect fluctuations leading into the June acreage report.

Dairy

Cheese prices continued climbing—blocks rose to $1.90/lb and barrels to $1.82/lb. Butter edged up to $2.33/lb. Retail demand is steady, and strong milk availability is supporting production.

Outlook: With inventories building and supply chain conditions stable, dairy pricing should hold steady with slight upward bias.

Beef

Live cattle futures softened, but boxed beef cutouts continued upward. Choice climbed to $349.90/cwt and select hit $339.20/cwt. Ground beef 81% rose 5% to $3.48/lb, and 50% trim surged 7% to $1.19/lb. Premium cuts like tenderloin and striploin posted gains, while shortloins and sirloins dipped.

Outlook: Tight harvest levels are creating margin pressure for packers, which will likely keep beef prices elevated heading into summer.

Pork

Pork pricing increased across key cuts. Butts and ribs surged over 10% w/w, while bellies saw modest gains. Boneless pork butts hit $1.59/lb, and spareribs climbed to $1.69/lb. Trim segments declined slightly.

Outlook: Strong export volume and seasonal demand are expected to maintain price pressure. Operators should evaluate cut utilization strategies to manage rising costs.

Poultry

Chicken markets showed mixed movement. Tenderloins rose $0.08 to $2.33/lb and boneless thighs climbed to $2.37/lb, while wing prices continued their downward trend, falling $0.07 to $1.17/lb. Whole bird pricing held flat at $1.35/lb. Turkey prices moved higher due to a 13% drop in harvest volume, while egg prices remained level.

Outlook: Steady demand for chicken white meat and ongoing supply constraints are likely to support current price levels. Wings remain a cost-saving opportunity for menus.

Seafood

 

Tilapia prices climbed nearly 8% m/m to around $2/lb, consistent with seasonal highs. The product has historically trended lower into summer, barring anomalies like in 2023.

Outlook: Tilapia is likely at or near its seasonal peak. Prices are expected to ease heading into Q3, providing potential value for operators using frozen fillets.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Freshly Picked Insights

• New Menu Ideas? Let’s Make Them Work for Your Bottom Line
• Turn Your Contracts into Cost-Saving Opportunities
• Streamline, Save, and Scale with Buyers Edge Platform Technology

Produce

Avocado prices fell for a sixth straight week despite pre-Cinco de Mayo demand. A return to sub-$50 cartons isn’t expected until after June. Yellow onions saw their first price uptick in over a year, signaling a potential seasonal bottom. Roma tomatoes slowed their pace of increase, rising just 2.8% w/w as the market enters its typical quiet season.

Outlook: Produce prices should remain mostly stable, with slight seasonal lifts for onions and continued softness in avocados through early summer.

Grains

Quiet news drove technical trading. Soybean oil slumped after failing to break key resistance. An upcoming EPA renewable volume obligations (RVO) announcement could reignite upward momentum if biodiesel policies shift.

Outlook: Grain markets are in a holding pattern ahead of key U.S.–China talks and Monday’s WASDE report.

Dairy

Butter prices edged up to $2.32/lb, while CME block cheese climbed 4% to $1.84/lb and barrels gained 2% to $1.78/lb. Nonfat dry milk rose to $1.22/lb. Retail demand remains steady, but foodservice activity is mixed. Cheese production is strong as milk supply grows.

Outlook: Expect steady dairy prices with ongoing inventory builds, though stronger seasonal demand could firm up cheese and butter through summer.

Beef

Choice cutout values climbed 1% to $347.89/cwt, while select jumped 3% to $333.20/cwt. Ribeyes and striploins held mostly flat, but shortloins and top sirloins saw moderate gains. Tenderloins slipped 3% to $13.27/lb. Chucks and rounds were mixed, with chuck rolls up, shoulder clods rising 5%, but inside rounds slipping 2%. Ground beef 81% rose 3% to $3.31/lb. Trim markets softened, with 50% trim down 7% to $1.11/lb and 90% lean trim easing to $3.75/lb.

Outlook: Rising cash cattle prices and tighter harvests are squeezing packer margins, likely pushing beef prices higher in the coming weeks.

Pork

Loin primal dipped 2% w/w, though boneless loins inched up to $1.33/lb. Pork butts strengthened, with primal up 4% and boneless butts reaching $1.39/lb. Ribs were mixed; spareribs held flat at $1.49/lb, while belly primals dropped 6% to $146.49/cwt. Belly subprimals declined $0.09 to $1.79/lb. Trims were sharply lower, with 42% trim down $0.18 to $0.60/lb and 72% trim slipping to $1.00/lb.

Outlook: Weak export sales and trade risks could keep domestic pork prices soft, especially as nearly 30% of U.S. production depends on exports.

Poultry

Boneless breast prices eased to $2.75/lb, still up 56% year-over-year, while tenderloins rose $0.03 to $2.24/lb. Boneless thighs continued higher to $2.31/lb, matching strong recent gains. Whole bird pricing slipped $0.01 to $1.35/lb, and wings fell sharply again, down $0.08 to $1.25/lb, now 45% lower year-over-year. Turkey breast prices dropped 2%, while whole turkeys fell 16%. Egg prices held steady as retail and foodservice demand remained light.

Outlook: Chicken prices are finding a floor, with tight harvest volumes and steady demand supporting current levels heading into summer.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna surprised with a 5.9% m/m price increase in March, defying typical seasonal trends. After peaking in January, prices were expected to decline, but March posted a new seasonal high. Prices are still projected to soften through May before rebounding in summer.

Outlook: Tuna prices likely ease in the near term, but high seasonal ceilings could return later this year.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Freshly Picked Insights

• 32% of Operators Say They Need More Staff—Do You Really?
• Managing Multiple Locations? Here’s How to Simplify Your Back Office
• Serving Up Barbecue? Here’s How to Smoke the Competition Without Burning Your Budget

Produce

Iceberg lettuce returned to steady levels near $10/carton following a brief price spike, while large tomatoes jumped another 12%—though that rally is expected to fade soon. Hass avocados dropped 2.2% to an 11-week low despite tight supply of large fruit.

Outlook: Produce markets appear stable overall. Tomato prices could ease in the coming weeks, while avocado prices may tick back up by late June.

Grains

Grain prices fell again, led by Kansas City wheat and corn. Chicago wheat remains just above long-term technical support. Drier forecasts in the U.S. Southern Plains may provide some stabilization, but export demand remains sluggish.

Outlook: Without stronger global buying or weather-driven supply issues, grains—especially wheat—are likely to remain under downward pressure.

Dairy

Butter rose slightly to $2.31/lb, and both cheese blocks and barrels saw 2–3% gains. Retail demand is holding firm, but foodservice demand remains soft. Strong milk production is feeding higher cheese output, which may start to put pressure on prices again.

Outlook: Dairy prices could flatten or dip in the weeks ahead as production rises and foodservice demand stays muted.

Beef

Choice beef cutouts rose to $343.17/cwt as packers contend with shrinking harvests and rising cattle costs. Striploins and shortloins increased 1–2%, while tenderloins eased 1%. End cuts were strong across the board, and ground beef surged 4% to $3.20/lb. Trim markets were mixed, with 50% trim up 2% and 90% lean flat.

Outlook: Beef prices are likely to stay firm or rise further in the short term, as reduced harvests and strong seasonal demand continue to tighten supply.

Pork

Pork cutouts declined 2% with notable drops in the loin (-6%) and butt (-5%) primals. Boneless pork loins fell $0.08 to $1.30/lb, while spareribs dropped $0.11. Bellies saw a modest gain of 1%, with derind belly prices rising to $1.88/lb. Exports remain a concern, with halted sales to China and mixed global demand.

Outlook: Trade headwinds could further pressure pork prices, potentially translating to lower domestic costs despite short-term volatility in specific cuts.

Poultry

Boneless breast prices climbed to $2.76/lb, up 58% year-over-year, while tenderloins rose $0.10 to $2.21/lb. Boneless thighs matched that price after another strong gain. Whole bird pricing held steady at $1.36/lb, and wings eased $0.05 to $1.33/lb. Turkey breasts also gained 4.6%, while eggs and whole turkeys stayed flat. Harvest volumes dipped slightly week-over-week, adding more pressure to an already tight market.

Outlook: Expect continued chicken price increases into summer, with limited harvest and strong demand from both restaurants and retailers driving further upward movement.

Seafood

Tilapia and cod showed modest m/m price increases in February, and March data is expected to show sharper gains as import volumes drop. Tilapia, in particular, has historically peaked between March and April due to consistent seasonal trends.

Outlook: Seafood buyers should anticipate near-term price peaks for tilapia, with potential relief coming later in Q2 as import volumes rebound.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Freshly Picked Insights

• Make Sense of Your P&L and Use It to Drive Strategic Decisions
• Smart Scaling Starts with Smarter Cost Control
• Build a Restaurant Growth Strategy That’s Ready for 2025 and Beyond

Produce

Both iceberg lettuce and roma tomato prices rebounded, climbing 12.5% and 11.9% w/w, respectively. However, the tomato uptick appears temporary, while iceberg lettuce might see prices hit $25–$30/carton before easing. No major supply shocks are expected, suggesting produce markets should stabilize heading into the summer growing season.

Outlook: Lettuce may stay elevated for a few more weeks, but barring weather disruptions, produce markets should normalize by late spring.

Grains

Grains traded mixed as heavy rains in the U.S. Southern Plains and improved Black Sea weather pressured Kansas City wheat prices lower. Without stronger export demand or a rebound in global weather issues, wheat markets are likely to remain under pressure. Technical support helped prevent further drops, but overall bearish momentum persists.

Outlook: Weather improvements and weaker global demand could keep grains, especially wheat, trending lower into the early summer months.

Dairy

Dairy prices slipped, with butter down slightly to $2.33/lb and cheese blocks and barrels both dropping by around 8–9%. Foodservice demand remains weak, while retail demand is steady to higher. Strong milk production is boosting cheese output, which could add additional downward pressure on prices in the coming weeks.

Outlook: Dairy prices are likely to remain under pressure as milk availability increases and foodservice demand stays soft.

Beef

Cattle futures rose 3% to $213.50/cwt, but the overall beef cutout values were flat. Ribeye and tenderloin prices slipped slightly, while striploins and shortloins saw moderate gains. Ground beef surged 9% to $3.00/lb, indicating shifting consumer demand toward more affordable beef cuts. Expect further price firming in loins and ground beef as grilling season approaches.

Outlook: Beef fundamentals remain strong, but with rib prices softening, look for increased strength in loins, sirloins, and ground beef leading into prime grilling months.

Pork

Pork prices were mixed as the loin primal rose 5% and pork butts climbed 4%, but ribs and bellies fell. Export sales dropped sharply, increasing concerns over tariff impacts. With almost 30% of U.S. pork sold internationally, the market faces growing volatility that could result in lower domestic prices if export demand continues to soften.

Outlook: Trade tensions are creating uncertainty, but softer exports could eventually drive pork prices lower for U.S. buyers this spring.

Poultry

Chicken prices surged again last week, with boneless breasts up to $2.72/lb and boneless thighs jumping to $2.10/lb. Tenderloins also climbed sharply, now up 3% y/y. While retail ads stayed flat overall, thigh meat promotions were notably higher. Limited harvest and strong retail and foodservice demand suggest continued upward pressure on chicken prices heading into summer.

Outlook: Chicken pricing strength is expected to continue into summer, driven by tighter supplies and stronger menu demand across restaurants and retail.

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock prices dipped 5.6% m/m in February, realigning closer to normal seasonal levels after a strong finish to 2024. Although typically prices continue falling into April or May, the early low suggests moderate weakness before a summer rebound. Look for a typical seasonal peak between October and November.

Outlook: Expect pollock prices to drift lower through May before seasonal demand pushes prices higher later in the year.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Freshly Picked Insights

• Struggling with Costs and Labor? Here’s Your Fix.
• Short on Staff? Let Strategy Do the Heavy Lifting
• Ingredient Trends That Actually Make Operational Sense

Produce

A quiet week overall. Lettuce and tomatoes gave up recent gains, but no major red flags ahead. Hass avocados are trending down, now at a 9-week low, but real relief isn’t expected until July. Onions are holding steady above $5/sack but could firm up late May.

Outlook: Stable for now, but watch lettuce for potential volatility in May.

 

Grains

A mixed week. Soft red winter (Chicago) wheat rose 1.6%, but other wheats lagged behind. Soybean oil was the lone standout, showing strength amid overall market hesitation. Drought relief in Oklahoma could boost hard red winter yields, but concerns linger with 34% of the U.S. winter wheat crop still in drought conditions.

Outlook: Weather will be the wildcard — expect volatility tied to precipitation trends.

 

Dairy

Retail promotions and strong foodservice demand kept dairy prices moving modestly higher. Butter stayed flat at $2.34/lb, but cheese prices ticked up — both CME blocks and barrels hit $1.84/lb. Milk supply is rising, helping keep inventories healthy.

Outlook: Butter and cheese remain stable with slight upside. Expect continued inventory growth as milk production picks up.

 

Beef

Cattle futures surged 4% as tighter supplies support pricing. The choice cutout dipped 1% to $332.90/cwt while select was up 1% to $316.39/cwt. Chuck and round cuts weakened, with shoulder clods and chuck rolls falling 5–6%. Ribeyes and shortloins saw mixed trends.

Ground beef 81% dropped 9% to $2.74/lb. Lean trim prices diverged: 50% trim rose 4% to $1.23/lb, while 90% lean fell to $3.74/lb.

Outlook: Fewer cattle on the market means tighter supply and likely higher prices in coming weeks.

 

Pork

Pork prices were all over the board. Boneless loins dropped to $1.32/lb, but baby back ribs climbed to $2.88/lb. Butts and hams moved lower, while bellies surged 7% to $134.99/cwt. Export sales slowed, down 1.4 million pounds from the previous week.

Outlook: With 30% of U.S. pork heading overseas, upcoming tariffs or retaliatory measures could shake things up. Could mean volatility — or discounts — for domestic buyers.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvest rose 4.4% year-over-year, and white meat prices continue to climb. Boneless/skinless breasts jumped $0.13 to $2.65/lb and are now up 57% y/y. Tenderloins followed with a $0.10 gain. Thigh meat also saw solid increases, while wings and drumsticks stayed mostly flat. In turkey, boneless breasts edged up 1% but whole birds dropped nearly 6%.

Eggs hit peak demand during Easter, but with imports rising and demand easing, expect prices to cool off soon. The USDA shell egg index dipped 2% this week but remains 48% higher y/y.

Outlook: White meat demand is projected to remain strong, especially in foodservice and retail. Dark meat outlook is murkier, with tariffs and trade risks with China on the radar.

 

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna prices dropped 8.4% in March — a seasonal trend we’ve seen before. After peaking in January, tuna typically declines through late spring. We’re still sitting at elevated prices ($4.96/lb avg), but May data should reflect continued softness.

Outlook: Expect lower tuna prices through June before they begin to stabilize again.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Struggling with Costs and Labor? Here’s Your Fix.
• Short on Staff? Let Strategy Do the Heavy Lifting
• Ingredient Trends That Actually Make Operational Sense

 

Produce

Tomato and lettuce prices reversed course, trending slightly lower after recent surges—though supply concerns remain. Roma tomatoes may not settle until they hit $20/carton, and iceberg could still spike toward $30. Avocado prices dipped slightly but remain elevated, up over 60% y/y. Expect more movement in April pending tariff developments.

 

Grains

Corn and wheat held mostly flat thanks to early-week gains from USDA reports, but new tariff fears sparked a market-wide sell-off later in the week. Mexico was spared, keeping corn more stable, but tensions with major buyers like China and Japan could pressure prices going forward. Soybeans remain the weakest link due to lack of bullish fundamentals.

 

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices ticked slightly lower amid softening foodservice demand and fewer retail promos. Cheese blocks dropped to $1.62/lb, while barrels nudged up. Butter fell $0.05 to $2.33/lb. Milk output is increasing, inventories are growing, and the market remains steady with balanced demand.

 

Beef

Despite a dip in cattle futures, beef prices remain firm across premium cuts. Ribeyes and tenderloins surged again, with tenderloins up 6% to $14.55/lb. Ground beef and trim also climbed, suggesting strong seasonal demand. Chuck and round segments were more mixed. As grilling season heats up, beef is expected to retain price strength on the back of strong fundamentals.

 

Pork

Pork markets held steady with the cutout flat at $94.81/cwt. Loins and butts posted modest gains, while tenderloins and ribs softened. Belly prices continued to fall, now down 6% w/w. Export volumes rose, but ongoing tariffs from Mexico and China cast uncertainty. Volatility is expected, but domestic consumers could benefit from softening prices.

 

Poultry

Chicken breast prices surged again—now at $2.41/lb, up 57% year-over-year—while boneless thighs also rose to $1.76/lb. WOGs and foodservice bird sizes posted moderate gains, and after weeks of falling, wings finally saw a tiny uptick. Egg prices continue to slide, down another 3% w/w and over 50% m/m, as imports help stabilize supply ahead of Easter. Looking ahead, tariff-related uncertainty and flat demand may put downward pressure on wholesale chicken prices.

 

Seafood

Frozen snow crab surged 33% m/m in February to $10.24/lb—its highest since mid-2022—driven by tight imports. But this momentum likely won’t last, as demand and volume typically increase by late May and peak in summer. Relief isn’t expected until August.

 

Freshly Picked Insights

• Planning to Expand in 2025? Are You Set Up to Scale Profitably?
• Could Your Restaurant Chain Be Bleeding Money as You Grow?
• Are You Giving Your GMs the Tools to Truly Lead?

 

Produce

Tomatoes and lettuce took the spotlight—25 lb. large romas soared 44% w/w and are now up nearly 62% over two weeks, while 24-count iceberg prices rose as crop transitions continue. Relief isn’t expected until mid-April. Expect short-term spikes followed by stabilization as seasonal shifts settle.

 

Grains

Markets were subdued ahead of the USDA’s key planting and stock reports. Soybean oil bucked the trend, rising on strong export sales and renewed optimism around biofuel tax credit talks. Despite potentially bearish supply data, SBO futures may remain supported by policy developments and demand fundamentals.

 

Dairy

Retail promotions and export activity pushed dairy prices higher last week. Butter rose $0.07 to $2.37/lb, while cheese blocks and barrels climbed to $1.65 and $1.64/lb, respectively. Foodservice demand remains soft, but retail demand is steady. Milk production is trending up, helping stabilize supply.

 

Beef

Beef stayed strong with the April cattle contract holding at a record $209.25/cwt. Choice cutout values rose 3% to $335.72/cwt, with premium cuts like ribeyes and tenderloins up 4–11%. Ground beef jumped 4% to $2.83/lb, with strong out-front sales indicating more increases to come. As grilling season nears, high demand and tight supply are expected to keep prices elevated.

 

Pork

Pork cutout dropped 2% to $94.84/cwt amid lower production and rising tariff concerns. While butts and ribs showed some strength, the ham and belly primals declined, with bellies down 1% to $135.29/cwt. Export volume dropped sharply from the prior week. Continued uncertainty around international trade is expected to keep the pork market volatile with potential price benefits for U.S. consumers.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvest dipped 0.5% w/w but remained up 3.7% y/y. Breast prices surged again, up $0.12 to $2.30/lb, with boneless thigh meat also up $0.08 to $1.68/lb. Wings continued their sharp decline, down $0.08 to $1.44/lb. Egg prices dropped another 23% w/w as imports from Turkey and South Korea boost supply. Looking ahead, possible retaliatory tariffs could further increase domestic availability and push chicken prices lower.

 

Seafood

Shrimp and prawn prices held steady at $3.84/lb in January, marking the tail end of a recovery phase. The seasonal trend typically softens through mid-year, so expect a gradual decline in prices over the next several months—unless markets defy history and stay flat for another month.