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Produce

Avocado prices climbed another 10% w/w, driven by high demand ahead of the Super Bowl, though increased volumes may stabilize the market after February. Roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop but are expected to level out within the next two weeks.

 

Grains

Soybean meal prices surged 5% last week, fueled by dry weather in Argentina’s key growing regions. While some rain is forecasted, the ongoing drought is keeping the global market on edge. U.S. soybean meal exports are already at record highs for the 2024/25 marketing year.

 

Dairy

Dairy markets softened last week, with cheese and butter prices declining slightly. CME blocks and barrels fell $0.07 to $1.82/lb, while butter demand remained mixed amid ample cream supplies. Retail promotions increased, but retail prices stayed lower than last year, creating a favorable market for operators.

 

Beef

Beef markets saw mixed movements, with ground beef prices up 1% w/w and 31% this month. The choice cutout dropped 1% to $331/cwt, while end cuts and ribs saw slight declines. Lean trim prices continued to rise, with 90% lean trim up 4% to $3.68/lb, driven by strong demand for value cuts.

 

Pork

Pork saw mixed trends, with ribs and bellies leading price increases, while hams and pork butts declined. The belly primal rose 7% to $138.60/cwt, driven by strong demand, while boneless pork butt prices dipped 3% w/w. Operators should leverage pricing opportunities to manage fluctuating pork costs.

 

Poultry

Chicken harvests were down 10.7% w/w and 9% y/y, leading to higher sales for chicken breasts and tenderloins, though breast purchases dropped 40,000 lbs due to the reduced harvest. Prices for most chicken parts remained stable or slightly higher, while large eggshell prices rose 2.5% w/w and 35% over the past month, reflecting ongoing demand for cost-effective protein sources.

 

Seafood

Atlantic salmon prices hit a four-month high of $6.06/lb, up 10% y/y. Prices are expected to remain elevated through March due to strong demand and limited corrective weakness in the market. Operators should plan accordingly to manage higher seafood costs.

 

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Produce

Avocado prices climbed 14.5% w/w, hitting a 20-week high with more increases expected through February. Meanwhile, roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop, falling another 16.4% last week.

 

Grains

Wheat prices inched up 1.5% w/w following USDA balance sheet updates. The ongoing Black Sea weather risks could tighten global wheat supplies, possibly benefiting U.S. producers.

 

Dairy

Dairy prices softened as butter and cheese production remained steady with ample supply. CME spot butter fell $0.06 w/w to $2.54/lb, while retail cheese advertisements dropped for the third consecutive week.

 

Beef

Beef prices continue climbing, with ground beef up 32% over the past month and choice cuts seeing steady increases. The rib and round segments saw mixed movements, but consumer demand for ground products keeps pushing prices higher.

 

Pork

Ham prices rose 2% w/w as Easter preparations began, while ribs and loins saw modest increases. Bellies and trim prices softened slightly but remain a key contributor to the overall pork cutout value.

 

Poultry

Chicken demand remains strong as retailers promote cost-effective protein. Chicken breast sales surged last week, while tenderloins held steady. Turkey breast prices jumped 13.4% w/w due to higher deli promotions, and retail chicken features remain promising.

 

Seafood

Frozen cod prices eased last month after months of overinflated values, supported by declining import volumes. However, prices could rise again after April when volumes typically hit their lows.

 

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Produce

Avocado prices increased 10% w/w, defying expectations of early-year weakness, while large roma tomatoes dropped 14%. Yellow onions remain steady, with potential growth on the horizon. Avocado pricing may not ease significantly until April or later.

 

Grains

Grain markets had a strong start to 2025, with soybean oil leading the charge, climbing 11% w/w on optimism surrounding biofuel tax credit guidance. Wheat also saw gains, breaking its December stagnation, signaling a potentially positive trend for the sector.

 

Dairy

Butter prices rose slightly to $2.60/lb as cream volumes remain abundant, favoring processors. Cheese prices were mixed, with blocks falling slightly and barrels increasing. Production schedules were lighter during the holidays but are expected to strengthen in the new year.

 

Beef

The February cattle contract increased by 2% to $198.35/cwt, with choice and select cutouts also climbing. However, rib prices fell significantly, while ground beef and trim prices surged. Retail demand for end cuts and ground beef remains strong, and loin meats are positioned for growth as processors prepare for the spring grilling season.

 

Pork

Pork cutouts rose 1% to $90.48/cwt after three weeks of decline, driven by a 10% rally in belly prices. Despite mixed primal performance, trim prices continued to increase. Constrained harvest levels and freezer restocking could strengthen the pork market in the coming weeks.

 

Poultry

USDA reported a 2.8% decrease in young chicken harvest compared to the same holiday week last year. Whole bird and WOG prices rose slightly to $1.35/lb, while white meat prices saw modest gains. Egg prices continue to climb due to the avian flu’s impact, and retail chicken demand is expected to grow as cost-conscious consumers favor affordable protein options.

 

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock prices surged 8.2% m/m to a 20-month high, defying expectations of a year-end decline. Increased volumes in January may lead to price reductions in Q1, with a potential bottoming out between March and May.

 

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Produce

Tomatoes and lettuce remained focal points, with roma tomatoes falling 14.6% to their lowest since October. Prices are expected to decline further into January. Iceberg lettuce continued its correction, with stabilization anticipated soon around $10/carton.

 

Grains

Grain markets were stable, with Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat posting modest gains. Corn rallied early but fell short of five-month highs. The USDA’s December WASDE reduced 2024/25 carryout projections, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 11.4%, marking the first y/y decline since 2020/21.

 

Dairy

The dairy market was mixed as butter rose $0.03 to $2.52/lb, while cheese saw gains with blocks up $0.12 to $1.78/lb. Production schedules varied nationwide, and retail promotions dropped to their lowest level in a month, despite steady retail cheese demand.

 

Beef

The beef market saw gains as CME December cattle futures rose nearly 3% to $192.85/cwt. Bone-in export ribs and boneless ribeyes climbed 3% and 6%, respectively, near record highs. Loin prices weakened, with striploins down 6%, while ground beef 81% rose 3% to $2.36/lb.

 

Pork

The pork cutout rose 4% to $92.31/cwt, driven by gains in hams, loins, and butts. Hams surged 11%, while boneless pork butts increased $0.05 to $1.36/lb. The belly primal stabilized, but 42% pork trim dropped 5% to $0.42/lb, with 72% trim up 7% to $0.95/lb.

 

Poultry

USDA young chicken production reached 639.6 million pounds last week, driven by slightly larger bird weights. Whole birds and WOGs rose marginally, while drumsticks climbed 8% to $0.53/lb. White meat continues its strong year, with breasts up 52% and tenderloins higher by 39% year-to-date.

 

Seafood

Frozen snow crab prices climbed 15.2% m/m in October, outperforming even the typically volatile shrimp category. Historically predictable with seasonal highs in summer and lows in March, snow crab prices deviated from this pattern. While prices are unlikely to sustain October’s momentum, they’re expected to remain well above 2024’s $6/lb YTD low by March.

 

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Produce

The produce market faces ongoing challenges from weather disruptions, transitions, and logistical hurdles, with supply constraints and high prices expected for key commodities through December. Despite gradual improvements, heat damage and cold weather are impacting yields and crop growth, complicating transitions. Broccoli supplies remain tight with prorating expected, while commodities like lettuce, cauliflower, artichokes, and various greens continue to experience high prices and limited availability. Flexibility and coordination are essential to stabilize operations.

Grains

Soybean meal was the only major grain to post week-over-week gains. Corn prices faced downward pressure amid trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico. Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat conditions improved as drought in the Southern Plains continued to ease.

Dairy

Spot block cheese prices remained stable, but barrel prices fell to a 32-week low. Spot butter hit a new year-to-date low, reflecting softened market conditions. Meanwhile, cold storage cheese stocks continued to decline rapidly, as highlighted in last week’s October report.

Beef

Cattle placements in feedlots rose 5% year-over-year to 2.28 million head, slightly exceeding expectations. U.S. feeder cattle imports from Mexico, which account for 4% of the harvest total, have been suspended due to a case of New World Screwworm in Southern Mexico. Total beef in cold storage dropped 3.1% in October to 431.9 million pounds. The choice cutout increased 1.4% last week, while bone-in export ribs reached a record high of $12.99/lb.

Pork

Lean hog harvest declined 2.8% week-over-week, with total pork in cold storage falling 2.7% year-over-year to 426 million pounds in October. Despite the reduced harvest, the pork cutout remained flat week-over-week. However, 42% pork trim saw significant declines, dropping 10% for the week and 49% for the month.

Poultry

Young chicken harvest declined 1.4% week-over-week, while total poultry in cold storage dropped 5.7% year-over-year to just over 1.1 billion pounds. The eggshell index decreased 3% last week but saw a significant 38% increase for November, reflecting fluctuating supply and demand dynamics in the poultry market.

 

 

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce prices climbed another 24% last week amid ongoing crop transitions and yield concerns, defying typical seasonal trends as prices remain elevated. Roma tomatoes rose 5.2%, reaching their highest level since January, driven by Mexican growers transitioning between regions, though this aligns with usual seasonal patterns. Meanwhile, green tomatoes saw a slight price decline—the first since September—following disruptions caused by recent hurricanes in the Eastern U.S.

Grains

Grain markets were quiet last week, with soybean oil (SBO) taking a sharp 7% drop due to a collapse in palm oil prices following reports of unexpectedly high September carryout in Indonesia. SBO prices are now trending near October lows despite strong export sales to India, though weaker soybean prices and speculation of slower demand may be contributing to the selloff. Corn and soybean export sales remain solid, but market skepticism persists, with traders anticipating a slowdown as Brazil’s harvest begins in January.

Dairy

The dairy market was mixed last week, with butter prices declining $0.05 to $2.55/lb due to reduced production capacity and light foodservice demand, while cheese prices edged up slightly to $1.68/lb for both blocks and barrels. Retail cheese demand was sharply higher, supported by increased promotions, though foodservice demand remained slow. Fluid milk volumes stayed tight despite seasonally increasing outputs in some regions, while nonfat dry milk fell to $1.38/lb, and Class II cream dropped 2.3%. A winter storm in the Midwest and East could impact milk production and logistics in the coming week.

Beef

Beef production declined 2% week-over-week and 1.8% year-over-year due to reduced harvest volumes, despite heavier steer weights. The choice cutout rose 1% to $306.80/cwt, with boneless ribeyes reaching a record high of $13.93/lb, while select cuts dropped 1%. Ribs and tenderloins saw strong price gains as holiday demand ramps up, while end cuts like chuck rolls and bottom rounds showed mixed movement. Ground beef 81% increased 3% to $2.42/lb, and trim prices remained mostly stable.

Pork

Pork production increased 1.3% last week to 563.4 million pounds, though the cutout value declined by 1% to $93.07/cwt, driven by significant drops in picnics (down 15%) and pork trim prices. Boneless pork loin prices rose 5% to $1.42/lb, while other cuts like tenderloins remained flat and spareribs edged lower. Trim segments showed notable weakness, with 42% trim down 10% to $0.43/lb and 72% trim dropping 7% to $0.79/lb, reflecting softer demand in these areas.

Poultry

Chicken production rose 3.3% year-over-year, supported by increased harvest numbers and slightly heavier bird weights, though retail focus shifted toward turkeys. Prices for key chicken cuts were mostly flat or slightly lower, with boneless/skinless breasts down to $1.47/lb and tenderloins steady at $1.67/lb but down 10% month-over-month. Chicken wings held at $1.89/lb, while boneless/skinless thigh meat dropped 1% to $1.60/lb. In the turkey market, whole turkeys fell 1%, and breast meat declined 6% as Thanksgiving demand levels off.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna prices declined 2.2% in September, marking a three-month losing streak as prices normalize after a sharp rise earlier this year. Seasonal trends suggest prices will likely continue to drop through November before bottoming out, followed by a potential peak in January, consistent with historical patterns. Any price strength in early 2025 is expected to be short-lived, as yellowfin typically reaches its yearly low between April and May.

 

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce prices surged another 88% week-over-week, more than tripling over the past month to reach $39.18/carton, driven by California crop transitions and lower yields from adverse growing conditions. This sharp increase has returned prices to the typical $35-$55 range for Q4, a stark contrast to the flat iceberg pricing trends seen in late 2022. Reports suggest prices may remain elevated above $35 longer than usual as supply challenges persist.

Grains

Grain markets faced declines last week, led by losses in the soybean and wheat complexes, driven by favorable rainfall in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean oil (SBO) also reversed its upward trend due to weaker export sales, the halt in palm oil’s rally, and concerns over U.S. biofuel policy under President-elect Trump’s EPA pick, Lee Zeldin, who has previously opposed ethanol growth. While palm oil’s recovery could support SBO in the short term, the long-term outlook for U.S. biofuel demand and export strength will be critical in shaping the market.

Dairy

The dairy market continued to soften last week, with cheese and butter prices declining as fluid milk remained flat amid steady to increasing production. CME spot butter fell $0.06 to $2.60/lb, with uneven demand as retail sales held steady but foodservice demand weakened. Cheese prices dropped sharply, with barrels down 8% to $1.67/lb and blocks down 5% to $1.66/lb, despite increased retail promotions. Milk production varies regionally, with steady volumes in the Northeast and Central regions, while the West reports stronger output supported by favorable conditions.

Beef

Beef production increased 1% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year due to heavier steer weights and slightly higher harvest volumes, but prices continued to soften. The choice cutout dropped 2% to $303.80/cwt, led by declines in end cuts like chuck rolls (down 44% for November) and ground beef 81% (down 9% to $2.34/lb). While some segments like bone-in ribs and tenderloins saw modest gains, overall demand is slowing as the market transitions into the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Pork

Pork production decreased by 1.7% last week to 556.4 million pounds, resulting in overall price declines across most cuts. The pork cutout value dropped 4% to $94.07/cwt, with significant decreases in the belly primal—down 19% to $129.49/cwt—and pork trim segments, where 42% trim fell sharply by 22% to $0.48/lb. These reductions present potential cost-saving opportunities for foodservice operators as prices for many primals and subprimals have softened.

Poultry

Chicken production rose 3.5% year-over-year due to increased harvest volumes and larger bird sizes, but market prices remain soft. While boneless/skinless breasts edged up slightly to $1.49/lb, tenderloins and wings continued their monthly declines, down 18% and 11%, respectively. Drumsticks and WOG prices showed modest weekly gains, but boneless/skinless thigh meat dropped 4% to $1.63/lb. In the turkey segment, prices remained stable, with whole turkeys up 1% week-over-week and breast meat flat.

Seafood

Frozen cod fillet prices hit a 12-month high of $4.25/lb in September, marking three consecutive months of increases. Import volumes remained steady between 3,600 and 4,600 MT, suggesting robust domestic demand is driving the price rally.

 

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce prices surged nearly 45% last week to an 18-week high, yet they remain below typical fall levels due to unusually low prices since early September. With declining yields and a regional transition on the West Coast, prices are expected to continue rising through mid-November before easing back in January. Roma tomatoes saw a slight decline, but limited volumes from Florida and Mexico should keep prices stable until December, while 48-count Hass avocados dropped 1% week-over-week, though prices remain elevated 37% year-over-year.

Grains

Grain markets saw a positive week, driven by robust export sales in corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Corn exports hit nearly 11 million metric tons over the past month, reaching levels last seen in 2020-21, with strong demand from Mexico, Japan, and Colombia filling the gap left by China. Soybean oil also saw impressive sales, with last week’s figure of 114,311 metric tons marking the largest weekly total since 2012, partly spurred by a rally in palm oil prices that is boosting international demand for SBO. Corn demand remains strong with support from high ethanol production, keeping the outlook bullish through year-end.

Dairy

The dairy market softened last week, with cheese and fluid milk categories showing declines. CME cheese blocks dropped 5% to $1.75/lb, and spot butter prices also dipped to $2.66/lb, though strong butter production continues in preparation for holiday demand. Milk production is gradually increasing across the U.S., and Class II cream rose by 7%, though Class III milk saw a sharp 11% decline. Retail dairy demand remains steady, with anticipated promotions expected for holiday baking season.

Beef

Beef production remained steady week-over-week despite a 1.3% decline in harvest, offset by increasing cattle weights. As holiday demand for beef wanes, cutout values dropped, with choice down 3% to $309.46/cwt and select down 2%. While rib and loin segments saw modest gains, end cuts like chuck rolls plummeted 30%, and ground beef prices fell sharply post-Halloween, down 15% to $2.55/lb. Trim prices also fluctuated, with 50% trim settling at $0.73/lb and 90% lean trim down 3%.

Pork

Pork production rose 2.4% last week, yet the cutout value declined by 5% to $97.98/cwt as most primals, except ribs, experienced price drops. Notably, the belly primal fell 10% after reaching a yearly high, and holiday-driven ham prices also decreased by 7%. In the trim segment, 42% trim saw a sharp decline of 15%, reflecting softening demand in some cuts as seasonal purchasing slows down.

Poultry

Chicken production remained steady year-over-year, supported by slightly heavier bird weights despite a 1.1% weekly drop in harvest numbers. Prices across the chicken complex are weak but stabilizing, with notable monthly declines in white meat cuts like boneless breasts (down 12%) and tenderloins (down 24%), while chicken wings also dropped 15% month-over-month. Turkey prices, however, saw significant increases as holiday demand ramps up, with whole turkeys up 6% and turkey breast prices rising 5% week-over-week.

Seafood

In September 2024, the U.S. experienced a 4.3% month-over-month increase in the average per pound price of frozen tilapia fillets, reaching $2.17. This rise deviates from the typical seasonal trend, where prices often peak between March and April and decline through the summer months. The unexpected price increase may be attributed to factors such as reduced import volumes or heightened demand during this period. Historically, tilapia prices tend to bottom out after August, making this September uptick noteworthy.

 

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Produce

Produce markets face ongoing challenges due to the transition from Salinas to Yuma and compounded by past weather effects, pests, and incoming cold temperatures. Supplies of key items like broccoli, endive, and escarole remain tight, with limited availability projected through November, while extreme shortages are expected for items like bok choy and artichokes. Avocado volumes from Mexico look strong heading into the Super Bowl, though small sizes will dominate until late December. In the Southeast, crop volatility from hurricane damage is impacting numerous crops, including citrus, tomatoes, and peppers, signaling potential price increases and quality issues in the coming weeks.

Grains

Soybean oil (SBO) prices surged to a three-month high, influenced by rising palm oil futures, increased biofuel demand in Indonesia, and a recent flash sale of 30,000 metric tons of SBO to India, marking the first sale since March 2022. India’s significant position as the largest SBO importer globally hints at potential for ongoing sales, which could support further price gains if demand persists. Despite this recent boost, domestic demand for SBO remains softer than anticipated, making international sales crucial to sustaining momentum in the SBO market.

Dairy

The dairy market saw a mixed performance last week, with slight declines in cheese prices and fluid milk categories. Retail demand for conventional dairy increased by 11%, with cheese promotions up slightly, though cheese production remains constrained by limited milk availability. Butter prices edged up to $2.70/lb as churning activity picked up to meet seasonal needs, supported by ample cream supplies. Milk production varied regionally, with steady volumes in the East, rising output in the Central region, and mixed trends in the West.

Beef

Beef production rose 2.6% week-over-week and 1.6% over last year, driven by heavier cattle weights and increased harvest. Despite this, beef cutout values declined as demand eased, with choice cutout dropping 1% to $317.60/cwt and select falling 3%. Rib and trim segments saw slight gains, but most other cuts, particularly end cuts like chucks and rounds, experienced notable price drops. Ground beef remained steady, though prices may soften post-Halloween, while trim prices showed volatility.

Pork

Pork prices saw an upswing, with hog futures up 7% and a 4% rise in the pork cutout to $103.15/cwt, fueled by increased demand for ribs, hams, and bellies as holiday sales pick up. Key primals like ribs and bellies reached new highs, with derind belly prices climbing 24% for the month. However, the trim segment experienced significant declines, with 42% trim dropping 38% to $0.67/lb and 72% trim down 16% to $0.87/lb.

Poultry

Chicken production edged up by 0.7% year-over-year, supported by slightly larger bird sizes, though prices across the chicken complex remain weak. White meat cuts like boneless/skinless breasts and tenderloins continue to decline, down 16% and 26% for the month, respectively, while chicken wings fell 1.5% to $1.95/lb. Turkey prices showed mixed movement, with whole turkeys steady but breast prices rising by 2% as demand for Thanksgiving approaches.

Seafood

U.S. snow crab imports have significantly decreased, with August figures at 2,525 metric tons, down from 17,158 metric tons in May, marking the end of the peak season. Prices have stabilized following the volatility experienced since 2020, aligning with traditional seasonal patterns. Historically, snow crab prices are lower from August to October, suggesting that the upcoming September data is unlikely to show significant changes.

 

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Produce

The produce market faces ongoing challenges as growers transition between regions, with lasting effects from heat, pest issues, and recent hurricanes impacting availability and prices. Romaine, iceberg lettuce, broccoli, and other leafy greens are seeing reduced volumes due to heat stress and pest damage, while crops in the Southeast, including citrus and tomatoes, are heavily affected by recent hurricanes, leading to significant supply losses. High demand persists for items like avocados and table grapes, though the grape season may end early due to heat-related losses, and mushrooms remain constrained across all varieties. 

Grains

The grains market remained relatively stable, with soybean oil and corn seeing slight gains. Soybean oil’s increase was largely driven by rising palm oil prices, though U.S. fundamentals may not support a prolonged rally. Corn export sales, however, continued at an impressive pace, with recent sales totaling 3.6 million metric tons—the second-highest weekly October total on record. While demand is strong, especially from Mexico, there’s speculation that these purchases could be front-loaded, potentially slowing down in future months. 

Dairy

The dairy market showed mixed results last week, with cheese and butter prices dipping slightly amid steady to strong foodservice demand. Cheese prices saw some variation, with CME blocks holding steady while barrels fell by 7.5%, and spot butter prices decreased to $2.65/lb. Milk production trends are stabilizing due to improved cow comfort in cooler regions, though high temperatures in California are impacting output; overall, Class III milk saw a slight 1% increase, reflecting steady demand. 

Beef

Beef prices continue to trend upward, with notable increases in chuck rolls, ribeyes, and beef trim, supporting an 8% monthly rise in the overall cutout, now at $321.17/cwt. Cattle weights are heavier, yet total beef production has dropped 1.3% compared to last year, pushing prices higher despite mixed movements within choice cuts. Ground beef prices show a significant monthly increase, with 81% lean up 10% even though last week saw a dip; meanwhile, trim segments are also showing volatility, with 50% trim spiking 16% week-over-week. 

Pork

Pork production rose slightly by 1% last week, with the cutout gaining 2% to reach $98.15/cwt, driven by stronger rib, ham, and belly prices. Export-demanded cuts like spareribs and hams saw significant increases, with the ham primal up 6% and medium spareribs up 4%. Belly prices are also surging, up 12% for the month, while pork trim prices spiked, with 42% trim up 8% and 72% trim up 12%, reflecting a tighter supply. 

Poultry

Chicken production is up 3% year-over-year, supported by higher harvest numbers and increased bird size, yet prices in key chicken parts continue to decline. White meat cuts, including boneless/skinless breasts and tenderloins, have seen sharp drops, down 22% and 24% this month, respectively, while wings dipped below the $2.00/lb wholesale price for the first time since February. Drumsticks and thigh meats remain mostly flat, but turkey prices are beginning to show slight movement, hinting at seasonal increases as Thanksgiving approaches. 

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock prices saw a 3.3% month-over-month decline in August, reflecting sluggish U.S. demand following a sharp price drop earlier in the year and an unusual pattern in import volumes. Prices surged temporarily in spring but have since stabilized downward as imports and demand remain low. This trend highlights a weak market for pollock, with both prices and volumes declining steadily in recent months.