Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Tomatoes and lettuce remained focal points, with roma tomatoes falling 14.6% to their lowest since October. Prices are expected to decline further into January. Iceberg lettuce continued its correction, with stabilization anticipated soon around $10/carton.
Grains
Grain markets were stable, with Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat posting modest gains. Corn rallied early but fell short of five-month highs. The USDA’s December WASDE reduced 2024/25 carryout projections, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 11.4%, marking the first y/y decline since 2020/21.
Dairy
The dairy market was mixed as butter rose $0.03 to $2.52/lb, while cheese saw gains with blocks up $0.12 to $1.78/lb. Production schedules varied nationwide, and retail promotions dropped to their lowest level in a month, despite steady retail cheese demand.
Beef
The beef market saw gains as CME December cattle futures rose nearly 3% to $192.85/cwt. Bone-in export ribs and boneless ribeyes climbed 3% and 6%, respectively, near record highs. Loin prices weakened, with striploins down 6%, while ground beef 81% rose 3% to $2.36/lb.
Pork
The pork cutout rose 4% to $92.31/cwt, driven by gains in hams, loins, and butts. Hams surged 11%, while boneless pork butts increased $0.05 to $1.36/lb. The belly primal stabilized, but 42% pork trim dropped 5% to $0.42/lb, with 72% trim up 7% to $0.95/lb.
Poultry
USDA young chicken production reached 639.6 million pounds last week, driven by slightly larger bird weights. Whole birds and WOGs rose marginally, while drumsticks climbed 8% to $0.53/lb. White meat continues its strong year, with breasts up 52% and tenderloins higher by 39% year-to-date.
Seafood
Frozen snow crab prices climbed 15.2% m/m in October, outperforming even the typically volatile shrimp category. Historically predictable with seasonal highs in summer and lows in March, snow crab prices deviated from this pattern. While prices are unlikely to sustain October’s momentum, they’re expected to remain well above 2024’s $6/lb YTD low by March.
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