Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Avocado prices increased 10% w/w, defying expectations of early-year weakness, while large roma tomatoes dropped 14%. Yellow onions remain steady, with potential growth on the horizon. Avocado pricing may not ease significantly until April or later.
Grains
Grain markets had a strong start to 2025, with soybean oil leading the charge, climbing 11% w/w on optimism surrounding biofuel tax credit guidance. Wheat also saw gains, breaking its December stagnation, signaling a potentially positive trend for the sector.
Dairy
Butter prices rose slightly to $2.60/lb as cream volumes remain abundant, favoring processors. Cheese prices were mixed, with blocks falling slightly and barrels increasing. Production schedules were lighter during the holidays but are expected to strengthen in the new year.
Beef
The February cattle contract increased by 2% to $198.35/cwt, with choice and select cutouts also climbing. However, rib prices fell significantly, while ground beef and trim prices surged. Retail demand for end cuts and ground beef remains strong, and loin meats are positioned for growth as processors prepare for the spring grilling season.
Pork
Pork cutouts rose 1% to $90.48/cwt after three weeks of decline, driven by a 10% rally in belly prices. Despite mixed primal performance, trim prices continued to increase. Constrained harvest levels and freezer restocking could strengthen the pork market in the coming weeks.
Poultry
USDA reported a 2.8% decrease in young chicken harvest compared to the same holiday week last year. Whole bird and WOG prices rose slightly to $1.35/lb, while white meat prices saw modest gains. Egg prices continue to climb due to the avian flu’s impact, and retail chicken demand is expected to grow as cost-conscious consumers favor affordable protein options.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock prices surged 8.2% m/m to a 20-month high, defying expectations of a year-end decline. Increased volumes in January may lead to price reductions in Q1, with a potential bottoming out between March and May.
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