Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Iceberg lettuce prices jumped 8.4% w/w due to cold weather impacts, with potential supply gaps ahead. Avocado prices fell 6.8% as border supply improved, though a return to normal price levels isn’t expected until late February. Roma tomato declines slowed, with prices likely stabilizing soon.
Grains
Wheat markets gained momentum as drought and freezing temperatures raised concerns over U.S. and Russian winter wheat crops. While immediate impacts are uncertain, February will be a key period for monitoring international demand.
Dairy
The dairy market declined despite increased retail promotions, with CME blocks down $0.01 to $1.86/lb and barrels falling $0.07 to $1.80/lb. Butter prices dropped 2% w/w to $2.40/lb, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.
Beef
Beef prices softened as February demand slowed, with the choice cutout down 1% to $323.98/cwt. While tenderloins may ease post-Valentine’s Day, shortloins surged 5% and could climb further as grilling season approaches. Ground beef fell to $3.38/lb, and lean trim dropped 11% to $3.31/lb.
Pork
Pork prices trended upward, with the cutout up 1% to $95.64/cwt, driven by gains in bellies and loins. The belly primal jumped 2% to $157.32/cwt, marking a 10% increase over two weeks, while pork trim saw mixed movement. Prices should continue rising as processors restock low freezer inventories.
Poultry
Chicken harvests dropped 10% w/w but remained flat y/y, leading to mixed price movements across cuts. Boneless/skinless breasts rose $0.03 to $1.51/lb, while tenderloins declined $0.02 to $1.71/lb. With retail promotions expected to rise in February, wholesale chicken prices will likely trend higher.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock prices dropped 10.2% after a recent surge, with volumes recovering in December. Prices should continue declining at a slower pace through April as imports stabilize.
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