Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Avocados dropped 18 % to fresh YTD lows, slipping below 2024 levels. Iceberg lettuce jumped 35 % yet remains seasonally normal, and Idaho russets began their customary pre-harvest climb. Virus chatter in Western lettuce is on the radar but hasn’t shifted supply flows.
Outlook: Avocado values should stay favorable through August—good window for promotions. Lettuce likely flat until September lift; potatoes may add $1-$2/carton by mid-July. Stagger contracts to ride the avocado trough while capping potato upside.
Grains
Winter wheat erased geopolitical gains; soy oil followed crude lower despite bullish biofuel policy chatter. Traders brace for acreage & stocks data that could swing the complex.
Outlook: Near-term volatility high—basis contracts or cost-plus flour deals are prudent. Longer-term, soy oil’s story is still upward; evaluate futures or supplier caps for fryer oil heading into Q4.
Dairy
Butter nudged to $2.54/lb on solid export pull; cheese blocks eased to $1.61/lb as retail features cooled. Milk production is ebbing but still adequate; cream tightness in parts of the West could keep butter bid.
Outlook: Butter remains supported—forward cover through Q3 if pastries or sauces are core. Cheese sits in a holding pattern; consider short-term contracts and pivot to blends if prices rebound with back-to-school demand.
Beef
Live cattle futures lost 1.5 % but the choice cutout advanced to $395/cwt on record trim prices (50 % trim at $2.34/lb). Middle meats cooled slightly, and packers are signaling harvest cutbacks to manage cash cattle. End-cut values split, showing no broad weakness.
Outlook: Market should crest next week before typical mid-July slip; secure ground beef while still climbing, but delay heavy rib/loin buys until signs of that peak emerge. Multi-unit groups can leverage volume to negotiate formula pricing tied to boxed-beef averages instead of spot.
Pork
The composite cutout rose another 1 % (14 % MTD) as bellies (+4 %) and tenderloins firmed, while trims lost steam and export butt sales dried up. Futures and cash prices are decoupling—early evidence the rally is tiring.
Outlook: Expect a soft pullback in July; tariff clarity after the 90-day pause will set Q3 direction. Hedge belly needs now if bacon drives traffic, but leave flex in loin programs to capture the anticipated dip.
Poultry
Chicken harvests ran 3.6 % above last year, holding whole-bird pricing steady while boneless/skinless breasts slid to $2.39/lb (-14 % m/m) and wings lifted modestly to $1.26/lb—still half of 2024’s cost. Thigh meat retreated on light dark-meat demand; egg values inched 1 % higher after May’s correction. Supply remains balanced, but limited harvest growth is preventing oversupply.
Outlook: Seasonal softening should continue into late summer, yet value-driven retail ads will keep white meat firm. Consider locking in breast meat on short-term contracts and weighting menus toward wings while they’re historically cheap.
Seafood
Frozen cod filets hit a record $4.89/lb, extending a five-month rally and standing 27 % over last year. Historical patterns say April usually caps out, suggesting upside exhaustion.
Outlook: Prices should drift lower as imports rebuild, but budget a gradual decline—not a cliff. Hold existing inventory, defer large buys until late Q3, and diversify menus with lower-cost whitefish to protect basket margins.
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