Freshly Picked, July 15, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

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Produce

Iceberg lettuce prices have surged, nearly tripling since mid-June due to tightening supplies—an unusual move for this time of year. Potato prices are also climbing in advance of the new crop, with 60- and 70-count Idaho varieties up nearly 40% m/m.

Outlook: Expect produce markets to remain highly volatile through the fall, particularly for lettuce and potatoes. Multi-unit operators should evaluate alternative SKUs and prep solutions to maintain consistency and margins.

Grains

Corn prices continued to fall last week, despite strong U.S. export performance. Optimism around new trade deals didn’t materialize, and expectations for record-breaking crops in both the U.S. and Brazil continue to weigh heavily on the market.

Outlook: The current supply outlook will likely keep grain prices suppressed in the near term. Strategic procurement and hedging discussions may be beneficial heading into Q3.

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices were mostly flat last week. Domestic demand remains steady, though summer heat is tightening milk supply in some regions, pushing cheesemakers to secure additional volumes via the spot market.

Outlook: The dairy market remains steady but sensitive to regional production shifts. Operators should watch for any disruptions that could impact pricing or availability, especially in cheese-heavy menu categories.

Beef

Both choice and select cutouts declined, with mixed movement across primals—striploins fell while tenderloins and shortloins edged higher. Ground beef eased slightly, and 50% trim reached a new all-time high. Volatility remains across middle meats and trimmings.

Outlook: Despite a modest recovery in live cattle, cutout values remain under pressure. Operators should expect softer beef pricing in the short term as packers manage supply and seasonal demand shifts normalize.

Pork

The pork cutout rebounded 3% after the previous week’s sharp drop, led by strong belly and ham markets. Loins and tenderloins held steady, but pork butts and ribs weakened, with export sales for butts falling below expectations.

Outlook: Pork prices are likely to trend downward as global trade uncertainty and tariff speculation contribute to instability. Monitor primals closely for spot buying opportunities.

Poultry

Boneless skinless breast prices dropped sharply last week, now down 30% month-over-month, while wings rose slightly but remain well below last year’s levels. Thigh meat and drumsticks saw little movement, though boneless thigh meat is still up significantly year-over-year. Turkey prices rose, with breasts up 12% and whole birds up 6%.

Outlook: Operators should prepare for a typical seasonal dip in chicken prices, but increased harvest volumes and potential tariff challenges could accelerate the decline. White meat demand is expected to remain resilient due to its cost-effectiveness.

Seafood

Seafood prices dropped across key categories last month, with frozen tilapia down 12%. The decline followed months of inflated pricing and now places tilapia below anticipated late-summer levels. A lack of seasonal import volume increases is also shaping this trend.

Outlook: As import levels normalize, prices are expected to stabilize. Consider leveraging current softness in pricing for upcoming LTOs or protein swaps on core items.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.