Freshly Picked, July 29, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

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• Turn Sustainability into Savings: 3 Easy Wins for Your Concept

Produce

Tomatoes and lettuce are the two key watch items. Roma prices are stabilizing after a five-week climb but may spike again due to possible tariffs on Mexican imports. Iceberg lettuce prices dropped nearly 15% w/w. Avocados are softening, but typical August supply concerns may reverse that trend short term. Potatoes are following their usual slow climb ahead of harvest.

Outlook: Q4 produce costs could rise sharply due to tariffs and seasonal transitions. Monitor tomato and avocado imports closely and consider diversifying sourcing. Lock in favorable lettuce pricing now before another upward trend begins.

Grains

Corn dropped 2.1% w/w despite heat in the Corn Belt. Yields are still rated strong—best since 2017—so traders aren’t reacting to weather just yet. Export demand is solid, but not moving the market. Soybean oil saw a modest gain.

Outlook: Grain markets are holding steady for now. Keep an eye on USDA crop condition reports—any deterioration could move pricing. Maintain flexible coverage on key ingredients like corn and soybean oil to navigate potential volatility.

Dairy

Cheese prices were stable with strong export demand. Butter fell $0.11/lb but remains historically high. Spot milk availability is tighter in some areas, though contracted supply remains steady. Retail butter demand is stronger than foodservice.

Outlook: Cheese demand is steady, and pricing should remain favorable. Butter may see short-term softness, but margins remain tight. Continue to evaluate forward contracts and usage forecasts for Q4 to optimize dairy spend.

Beef

Live cattle futures climbed 1%, but wholesale beef prices are beginning to cool. Choice and select cutouts declined slightly, led by weaker loin prices. Rib meat remains elevated, and tenderloins ticked slightly higher. Ground beef and trim markets saw another drop—81% ground beef now at $3.55/lb.

Outlook: The market appears to be past peak pricing for most cuts. Expect moderate softening in loins and ground beef, while ribs and end cuts may hold or climb slightly. Evaluate shifting promotional focus toward value cuts as the market recalibrates.

Pork

Cutout values rose 1% w/w, driven by hams and bellies. However, most primals—including loins, ribs, and butts—were lower. Pork tenderloins and boneless butts saw modest declines. Spareribs fell 5%, and bone-in butts are holding near recent lows.

Outlook: Lean hog prices are creeping upward, but most cuts should remain manageable through August. Expect hams to increase as holiday buying begins. Consider pre-booking ham needs to mitigate Q4 price spikes, and reassess belly positions based on volatility.

Poultry

Chicken harvest volumes are up 3.6% YoY, leading to lower pricing across most categories. White meat is down again—boneless/skinless breasts fell to $1.86/lb (down 22% m/m), while wings rose for the eighth straight week, now up 28% m/m. Thigh meat and tenderloins are showing price softness. On the turkey side, prices are trending higher, with boneless breasts up nearly 5%.

Outlook: Expect poultry prices to remain soft through August due to seasonal dips and export tariff pressures. White meat demand should remain stable, while wings and turkey could trend higher. Consider locking in favorable breast and thigh pricing before fall promotions lift the market.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna pricing dropped another 8.2% in May, following a 26.7% decline in April—now at its lowest point in over 14 years. Import levels remain normal but are expected to taper through fall, which could pressure prices upward.

Outlook: We’re likely at the floor for yellowfin tuna. Now is a strategic time to secure volume pricing before seasonal uptrends take hold in late Q3. Review seafood menus and prep volumes accordingly.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.