Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Roma tomato prices fell another 15% to $9.48/cs, now more than 33% off recent highs. Iceberg lettuce and avocados remain stable and are approaching their lowest points of the year. Transitions have gone smoothly with no major disruptions.
Outlook: Produce pricing is expected to stabilize, offering a window to optimize category spend. Review contracts and buying behaviors to take advantage of these lows.
Grains
Spring wheat continues to drive headlines amid global supply challenges, while improved U.S. winter wheat crop ratings have tempered domestic prices. Export activity remained moderate last week.
Outlook: Grains may stay under slight downward pressure. Operators should use this time to revisit long-term contracts and hedge against future volatility.
Dairy
Butter rose $0.13 to $2.49/lb, while cheese remained unchanged. Strong retail promotions and growing milk availability continue to support dairy production. Nonfat dry milk also gained to $1.29/lb.
Outlook: Expect some upward movement in butter and milk costs. Multi-unit operators should track regional pricing and align purchasing accordingly.
Beef
Despite rib segments falling, the beef market overall pushed higher with striploins reaching $11.84/lb and ground beef steady at $3.63/lb. Futures rose 3.5% on tighter supply expectations, and premium loin cuts showed notable strength.
Outlook: Market pressure will likely keep beef prices elevated. Now’s the time to review contracts and evaluate substitution opportunities for high-cost cuts.
Pork
Pork cutout values rose 3% to $108.12/cwt, with strong gains in bellies, ribs, and tenderloins. Bellies jumped to $1.98/lb while pork butts held strong. Export sales dipped, but domestic demand continues to lead.
Outlook: Pork prices are trending up through July. Multi-unit teams should review menu engineering and consider locking in pricing where volume is high.
Poultry
Chicken pricing remained firm last week, with boneless breasts at $2.77/lb and tenderloins jumping to $2.50/lb, supported by a 12% increase in retail ads. Boneless thigh meat continued its climb, now up 34% y/y. Harvest volumes increased 2.5% w/w, giving operators some breathing room.
Outlook: White and dark meat demand is holding strong. Multi-unit operators should maintain current poultry strategies while monitoring weekly shifts in tenderloin and thigh pricing.
Seafood
Snow crab prices pulled back 2.9% month-over-month following February’s spike. Import volumes are recovering, and the market is showing signs of stabilizing ahead of the summer peak season.
Outlook: Seafood costs are cooling, especially in crab. Use this pricing window to enhance premium offerings without sacrificing profitability.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
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