Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Stability continued across core produce items. Roma tomatoes saw a temporary 22% price dip but are still tracking within their normal seasonal band. Iceberg lettuce remained flat, and avocados continued their steady decline, improving year-over-year price comparisons.
Outlook: Produce costs should remain relatively flat through summer barring weather disruptions. Operators can use this period of predictability to refine spec consistency and avoid last-minute market buys.
Grains
Grain markets cooled off last week despite weaker-than-expected corn crop ratings. Tariff headlines failed to move the market significantly, and traders are now focused on June’s rainfall and yield forecasts.
Outlook: Corn and other grains are expected to stay under pressure unless weather turns adverse. Now is an opportune time to assess coverage and protect margins across high-usage grain-based products.
Dairy
Butter led the dairy category higher, increasing $0.13/lb to $2.49/lb. Cheese held steady at elevated levels, and nonfat dry milk rose to $1.29/lb. Strong domestic demand and rising exports are supporting processor activity and pricing.
Outlook: Margins on dairy-heavy items may be impacted if these trends continue. Multi-unit chains should monitor contracts closely and look for regional sourcing advantages where possible.
Beef
Beef pricing edged higher again, with the choice cutout reaching $366.09/cwt and multiple premium cuts like striploins and top sirloins gaining ground. Ground beef and trimmings were up as well, with 81% lean at $3.62/lb and 50% trim up $0.07 to $1.32/lb.
Outlook: Ongoing tight harvests are driving price support across both premium and value cuts. Operators should explore contract coverage and evaluate blended product strategies to manage cost exposure.
Pork
Pork markets moved sharply higher across several key categories. Bellies, hams, and trim all posted significant gains, with 72% trim up $0.14/lb and bellies rising 5% to $150.16/cwt. Pork butts also showed positive movement, bolstered by export activity.
Outlook: With export sales rebounding and domestic demand strong, pork values may remain firm in the short term. Multi-unit groups should assess high-volume SKUs for forward pricing opportunities.
Poultry
Poultry markets held relatively steady last week, with minor shifts in pricing across segments. Boneless breasts ticked down to $2.76/lb, while tenderloins climbed to $2.44/lb—marking an 11.5% increase for May. Boneless thigh meat was also up again, rising to $2.45/lb and showing 38% growth year-over-year.
Outlook: With consistent foodservice and retail demand, white meat pricing is expected to stay firm. Multi-unit operators should continue leveraging poultry as a reliable center-of-plate protein for cost-conscious menu planning.
Seafood
Frozen cod prices surged to a 22-month high, hitting $4.60/lb in March and holding elevated into June. Limited early-year imports are contributing to the spike, and a return to typical ranges may be slow.
Outlook: Seafood pricing may soften later this summer, but short-term costs are likely to remain high. Operators should consider adjusting portion sizes or diversifying species to manage spend effectively.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
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