poultry Tag

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

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Poultry

Chicken markets remain mostly favorable for operators, supported by production levels that continue to run ahead of last year. Breast meat and tenders are still offering solid value, though wing prices have moved sharply higher in recent weeks and are worth watching closely. More broadly, supply growth may begin to slow as producer economics become more challenging.

Outlook: Poultry should remain one of the more manageable center-of-plate categories near term, but wing markets and any late-season supply tightening could create pockets of volatility.

Beef

Beef continues to be a mixed market, shaped by tight cattle supplies and lower overall production versus last year. Premium steak cuts have shown some recent pricing relief, while ground beef remains historically expensive and continues to pressure operators focused on burgers and other high-volume applications. Imported lean trim is still helping offset some domestic cost pressure.

Outlook: Expect beef to remain a challenging category overall, with some near-term opportunity in premium cuts but continued elevated costs in ground beef.

Pork

Pork remains a comparatively attractive protein from a value standpoint, even as certain items have strengthened. Increased demand has recently pushed bellies and hams higher, while overall supply remains supported by improved production and efficiency gains. The category still offers menu flexibility relative to beef.

Outlook: Pork should continue to present value opportunities, though bacon and ham pricing may stay firm in the near term.

Produce

Produce markets have improved meaningfully, with iceberg lettuce falling sharply from earlier highs and avocado pricing also easing as supply conditions normalize. These shifts are welcome after a more volatile stretch and should provide operators with better planning consistency across key fresh categories.

Outlook: Expect produce conditions to remain more balanced in the near term, with lettuce and avocados offering a more favorable cost environment than earlier this season.

Dairy

Dairy markets are navigating a familiar seasonal push and pull. Summer heat has created some production pressure and supported cheese pricing, but large milk supplies and herd size continue to limit the upside. Butter demand remains steady, helping keep that market well supported.

Outlook: Dairy prices may trend modestly firmer in the short term, but ample milk availability should help prevent a major move higher.

Grains

Grain markets have seen some weather-related volatility, particularly around shifting Corn Belt forecasts, but the broader market has settled as immediate crop concerns eased. At this stage, there is not a strong fundamental driver pushing prices materially higher.

Outlook: Unless weather conditions worsen meaningfully, grain markets are likely to remain relatively contained in the near term.

Seafood

Fresh Atlantic salmon has been one of the steadier proteins in the market following a substantial correction earlier in the year. Pricing remains below year-ago levels, and the category has delivered a more stable cost profile than many buyers experienced last summer.

Outlook: Salmon is expected to remain relatively stable, giving operators a dependable seafood option for near-term menu planning.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

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CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Production continues to outpace 2025, with year-to-date output up 2.6% and weekly slaughter trending about 2% higher year over year. Even with that added volume, the market is mixed: boneless skinless breast meat has slipped to a seven-month low and tenders are down 6%, while wings jumped 8% last week to a 13-week high. Record-high bird weights, up 3.7% from last year, are helping keep overall supply plentiful.

Outlook: Poultry remains relatively balanced for now, but wing volatility and uneven cut performance could create very different cost stories across the bird.

Beef

Cattle slaughter remains constrained, down 8.3% from the same week last year, keeping underlying beef supply tight. At the same time, boxed beef values softened 1.5% last week, with some loin cuts including strips and top sirloins trading below 2025 levels. Broader supply pressure is still in place, and any changes in processor demand could keep the market reactive.

Outlook: Beef remains a high-cost category overall, but there may still be selective value opportunities in certain middle meats and end cuts.

Pork

Pork continues to stand out as one of the better protein values in the market. Although the cutout rose about 1% last week, bellies remain down 33% from a year ago, and second-quarter pork performance was much softer than normal seasonal patterns would suggest. Supply remains ample in the near term, but the market may not stay this comfortable
indefinitely.

Outlook: Pork is still attractive for menu placement, though seasonal firming later in the quarter could start to narrow today’s value advantage.

Produce

Produce markets offered some welcome relief last week after several weeks of increases. Iceberg lettuce fell 28% week over week as supplies improved, while avocados dropped 19.7% to a six-week low. Roma tomatoes also moved lower, down 16.8% to a new year-to-date low, giving operators a bit of breathing room across several key items.

Outlook: Produce costs have eased in the short term, but seasonal transitions can shift these markets quickly, so this remains a category to watch closely.

Dairy

Dairy continues to provide some cost relief, with June CME cheese block prices averaging 18% below last year and marking one of the weakest June averages in the past decade. Even so, seasonal heat is starting to weigh on milk production, and spot load availability has tightened enough to suggest the market may be nearing a floor.

Outlook: Dairy remains favorable for buyers today, but weakening production trends could limit how much further prices fall.

Grains

Grain markets were steady to firmer following the USDA’s June Acreage Report, with corn stocks estimated at 5.295 billion bushels — below trade expectations and a sign that demand remains strong. That tighter-than-expected supply picture has kept attention focused on weather and yield potential as the market moves deeper into the growing season.

Outlook: Grain volatility could build quickly from here, especially if weather concerns add pressure to an already tighter supply setup.

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock remains one of the more notable seafood stories, with pricing reaching a 17-month high after climbing 26% since February. Tight import volumes have been the main driver, though recent data suggests that supply may be starting to stabilize. Even so, the market is still elevated compared to earlier this year.

Outlook: Seafood pricing remains firm in key categories, and while some relief may develop later, near-term costs are still likely to stay elevated.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

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Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

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Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Chicken production remains ample, with year-to-date output up roughly 2.7%, helping keep several categories under pressure. Wing pricing is still hovering near 10-year lows for June, and tenderloins posted a 7% weekly decline, but inventories for some key foodservice cuts are tighter than overall production numbers suggest.

Outlook: Poultry remains relatively favorable near term, but any production pullback could tighten availability and shift pricing quickly on high-demand cuts.

Beef

Beef markets remain structurally tight, even as near-term supply has shown some stability. Production is still running about 1% to 3% below last year, and the latest Cattle on Feed report showed placements down nearly 10%, reinforcing longer-term supply concerns. At the same time, middle meats continue to command attention as operators look for value in a high-cost protein environment.

Outlook: Expect elevated beef pricing to persist, with loin items offering one of the more practical opportunities for balancing guest appeal and cost control.

Pork

Pork continues to offer one of the more attractive value stories in protein. The pork cutout remains about 21% below year-ago levels, and belly pricing is down as much as 32% versus last year, creating opportunity for operators with flexibility across menus and dayparts. Still, breeding herds are sitting at 12-year lows, which could eventually slow production growth.

Outlook: Pork should remain a strong value option in the short term, but the supply-side fundamentals suggest this pricing environment may not be permanent.

Produce

Produce markets have been relatively steady overall, though lettuce continues to stand out as a pressure point. Iceberg pricing has climbed for four straight weeks, with recent increases of about 4% week over week, as supply constraints have limited the normal seasonal reset.

Outlook: Operators with high lettuce usage should be prepared for continued near-term cost pressure and may want to evaluate specs, yields, or substitutions where possible.

Dairy

Dairy markets softened again last week, with both cheese blocks and butter falling to 6-month lows. Even so, butter inventories remain roughly 7% to 8% below last year, suggesting that while current pricing is favorable, underlying supply is not especially loose.

Outlook: Dairy presents near-term buying opportunities, though tighter inventory positions could make the market more reactive if demand improves.

Grains

Grain markets were relatively quiet heading into the USDA’s June Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, but that calm may not last. Current expectations point to corn acreage near 95 million acres and soybean acreage around 83.7 million, figures that could move markets depending on how closely the official data aligns with trade expectations.

Outlook: Expect volatility in the near term as updated acreage and stocks data reset sentiment across feed, oilseed, and grain-linked categories.

Seafood

Seafood pricing remains uneven across species. Frozen tilapia continues to post sizable monthly swings, while frozen cod import prices have climbed to historic highs, now roughly 31% above last year. For operators managing broad seafood assortments, this divergence creates both risk and opportunity depending on species mix.

Outlook: Tilapia remains comparatively workable despite recent volatility, while higher whitefish costs may continue to pressure menus built around cod.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Chicken supplies continue to expand, driving lower prices across most poultry categories. Increased production and heavier supply heading into July are creating favorable purchasing conditions for operators managing protein costs.

Outlook: Strong production should keep poultry markets well supplied, with favorable pricing expected through much of the summer.

Beef

Beef supplies remain constrained despite a slight increase in production, while lower feedlot placements point to ongoing supply challenges. Although production is expected to improve during the third quarter, markets remain relatively tight.

Outlook: Beef prices are likely to stay elevated in the near term, with the potential for modest relief later this summer if production forecasts are realized.

Pork

Healthy pork production continues to support stable pricing across most cuts, although seasonal demand is beginning to lift belly prices. Overall supplies remain favorable compared to last year.

Outlook: Expect moderate seasonal strength over the coming months, but overall pork availability should remain sufficient to limit significant price increases.

Produce

Lettuce continues to be the primary area of concern as supply constraints push prices higher, while tomato markets are following a more typical seasonal pattern. Most other produce categories remain relatively stable.

Outlook: Lettuce prices are expected to remain elevated until growing conditions improve, while tomatoes may continue gradual seasonal increases through mid-summer.

Dairy

Dairy markets softened again last week, with butter, cheese, and milk powder prices moving lower as milk production remains ample. Seasonal heat may tighten supplies slightly, but overall market fundamentals remain favorable.

Outlook: Dairy pricing should remain relatively stable this summer, with only modest seasonal upward pressure expected.

Grains

Grain markets posted mixed results as corn, wheat, and soybeans stabilized following recent declines, while soybean oil continued to weaken. Energy markets and crop conditions remain the primary drivers of price movement.

Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain volatile, though current supply conditions point to limited near-term upward pressure.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna prices declined sharply after reaching seasonal highs earlier this spring, returning to more typical pricing levels. Seasonal demand is expected to support the market later this summer.

Outlook: Yellowfin tuna prices are expected to gradually strengthen heading into late summer before easing later in the year.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Chicken production is running above last year (heavier birds + steady egg sets/chick placements), putting overall availability into the summer season. Breast and tender prices have softened (breast at a 20‑week low), while dark‑meat (thigh) prices have recently been elevated because exports have weakened and U.S. dark‑meat demand is at record highs. For operators and buyers this means good supply and buying opportunity for white meat now, but shifting domestic demand dynamics for dark meat.

Outlook: Expect continued ample summer supply and a likely pullback in boneless skinless thigh premiums as domestic absorption stabilizes and seasonal flows normalize.

Beef

Weekly and year‑to‑date beef production are down versus last year, leaving supplies tighter; Choice and Select cutouts moved lower with loins and ribs weakest. Disease concerns (New World Screwworm) and poor pasture conditions complicate herd rebuilding, increasing supply uncertainty. Buyers should prioritize contract coverage for core items, consider alternative cuts for promotions, and plan inventories conservatively.

Outlook: Near‑term supply pressure and price volatility are likely to continue, with upside risk to prices until herd and pasture conditions visibly improve.

Pork

Pork output is modestly above last year (heavier carcass weights offsetting a small drop in slaughter), but the pork cutout weakened recently—driven by a steep fall in butts—while bellies remain much lower year‑over‑year. Most primals are behind last year except ribs, creating mixed opportunities across items (e.g., cost savings on bellies for bacon programs, watch butts for promo timing).

Outlook: Production should remain slightly above 2025 into summer, but expect ongoing primals‑level volatility—opportunistic spot buys and flexible menu plans are advised.

Produce

Lettuce (iceberg) has been the primary driver of produce price volatility with repeated supply gaps pushing 24‑count prices to new year‑to‑date highs; tomatoes, onions and avocados are normalizing. For operators, substitute‑friendly menus, tighter yield controls, and short‑term purchasing strategies will help manage margin risk.

Outlook: Short‑term buying pressure should persist for another one–two weeks, with material relief more likely once seasonal supplies re‑establish later in June.

Dairy

CME trading was active but mostly softer; nonfat dry milk is near three‑month lows as buyers delay purchases, while butter has shown surprising firmness supported by strong April exports (but imports rose too). For foodservice and distribution, NFDM looks defensively priced for buyers willing to wait for lower levels, while butter allocations or forward buys may be prudent if your programs are margin‑sensitive.

Outlook: NFDM faces further near‑term downside risk; butter upside is more limited as narrowing U.S.–international spreads should increase available U.S. supply.

Grains

The overall grains correction slowed—wheat rebounded slightly, soybeans held ground, and corn saw mixed action after South American crop estimates and helpful U.S. rains; soybean oil is the most vulnerable, testing key technical support. For procurement, monitor vegetable oil closely (frying costs) and consider short‑dated coverage or flexible contracts tied to benchmark indices.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility driven by South American crop updates, U.S. weather, and oilseed fundamentals—soybean oil is the key near‑term watch item.

Seafood

Frozen cod fillet prices spiked in April as import volumes hit lows not seen since 2013, pushing prices substantially above last year; early signs suggest imports rebounded in May, which should help ease pressure. Distributors should evaluate alternative whitefish, adjust pricing for high‑cost cod SKUs, and watch May/June import flows.

Outlook: Near‑term cod prices remain elevated, but rising import volumes through May–and into summer—should begin to moderate prices toward year‑end.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Chicken slaughter and production rose notably last week (up 10% and 2.7% YoY, respectively), with strong layer efficiency (+5% YoY), but front-half cuts (wings, tenders, breasts) weakened while thighs and leg quarters held firm; table eggs eased toward $0.50/dozen and turkey markets were mostly lower amid ongoing industry recovery from avian flu, with April output up 9.6% YoY but still historically low.

Outlook: Chicken and turkey supplies are expected to build steadily in the coming months, likely keeping pressure on front-half chicken prices while supporting a gradual turkey recovery.

Beef

Beef production jumped 19% week-over-week but remained 4.3% below year-ago levels; markets turned volatile after the first U.S. New World Screwworm detection in Texas since 1966, with choice cutout and trim mostly firm (ribs leading gains) while select beef softened, and hamburger inflation hit 16.4% YoY versus just 2% for steaks.

Outlook: The divergence between strong hamburger/trim pricing and softer steak values is expected to persist amid heightened monitoring costs for herd rebuilding.

Pork

Pork production rose sharply (up 13.6% week-over-week and 4.9% YoY), but hog prices weakened near early-March lows; the USDA cutout climbed more than 3% over the past month (bellies leading gains) while ribs and butts fell, retail pork hit a record high yet remains at a deep discount to beef, and per-capita consumption is projected to grow only 0.6% this year.

Outlook: Limited consumption growth and the recent May cutout decline may temper any seasonal upside in pork markets over the coming months.

Produce

Avocado prices surged more than 80% in the past two weeks to their highest level since May 2025 due to an early end to Mexico’s main harvest, with relief expected late in the month; 24-count iceberg lettuce showed a slight bounce but is expected to stay near the $20/carton level through summer before the typical September/October surge.

Outlook: Avocado buying pressure should ease later this month as the Loca harvest begins earlier than usual, while lettuce prices remain range-bound near $20/carton for most of the summer.

Dairy

CME spot dairy trade was light and mostly lower (NDM and cheese blocks down, butter up), with milk production entering seasonal easing in the Midwest and West; NDM output is tracking 7% higher year-to-date after historic highs earlier this spring, and stocks are rebuilding though still below average.

Outlook: NDM prices have likely peaked, with only limited near-term downside expected as higher output helps rebalance the market.

Grains

The grains sell-off continued, with soybeans joining the losses and weighing on soybean oil’s rally; corn declined amid shifting Corn Belt weather forecasts, with solid underlying demand even as the July contract approached $4.20.

Outlook: Corn may find technical support and attempt a bounce, but negative momentum could push prices toward $4 before stabilization.

Seafood

March snow crab import data showed a modest 7.6% month-over-month gain but marked the final quiet period before the stronger 2026 import season begins; post-COVID price volatility has continued, with recent months interrupting the 2024–2025 recovery.

Outlook: A strong import season should keep summer snow crab price gains more muted than in prior decades and could open the door for a later-year downturn.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Poultry

Chicken supplies continue expanding, keeping pricing pressure on most poultry categories. Breast meat prices are now down 45% year-over-year, while wings, tenders, and boneless skinless thighs also softened last week. Turkey breast pricing has dropped nearly 20% over the last month as production improves, and USDA data continues pointing to strong chicken supply growth through at least June.

Outlook: Multi-unit operators may continue seeing favorable contract and menu-margin opportunities across several chicken categories this summer. With production expected to remain elevated longer term, poultry should remain one of the more stable center-of-plate proteins from a cost management perspective.

Beef

Beef production remained constrained last week as cattle slaughter stayed well below year-ago levels due to ongoing packer margin pressure. Choice beef cuts moved higher while Select categories softened, creating continued volatility across the complex. At the same time, feedlot inventories and cattle placements improved year-over-year, while potential El Niño conditions could eventually improve pasture conditions in major cattle regions.

Outlook: Beef markets will likely remain highly dynamic for multi-unit operators managing large-scale purchasing and menu consistency. While improved weather could support future herd rebuilding, tighter slaughter supplies may continue creating pricing pressure and volatility across key beef cuts in the near term.

Pork

Pork production eased slightly week-over-week but remained above 2025 levels overall. Pork butts and ribs continued strengthening, with butt pricing now nearly 16% above last year, while bellies continued falling sharply and remain a major factor weighing on the overall pork cutout. USDA still projects 2026 pork production to reach record-high levels.

Outlook: Strong overall pork availability should continue helping stabilize broad pork costs for operators managing multiple locations. Belly weakness may create additional value opportunities for bacon-heavy menus, while elevated butt and rib pricing could continue impacting seasonal promotional planning during peak summer demand.

Produce

Produce markets were noticeably calmer last week as tomatoes, onions, and lettuce continued easing from recent elevated pricing levels. Roma tomatoes moved lower again, while onion and lettuce markets are gradually stabilizing. Attention is now beginning to shift toward avocados as Mexican crop transitions and weaker upcoming supply projections create concerns around tighter summer availability.

Outlook: Operators may continue seeing produce cost relief across several core menu ingredients in the coming weeks, particularly tomatoes and onions. However, avocado pricing could become a larger pressure point this summer, especially for concepts with high-volume usage across multiple locations.

Dairy

Dairy markets weakened again last week, with cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk all posting notable declines. Cheese and butter markets are now trading at least 18% below last year, while milk production continues climbing as the U.S. dairy herd reaches its largest size since 1993. Export demand for nonfat dry milk is also beginning to soften.

Outlook: Multi-unit operators could continue benefiting from favorable dairy pricing through the summer, particularly across cheese-heavy menu categories. Expanding milk supplies and softer exports may help keep dairy costs relatively manageable in the near term.

Grains

Grain markets were relatively subdued last week, with most movement tied to broader geopolitical and energy market developments. Corn prices briefly rallied following announcements around a new U.S.-China agricultural agreement before quickly pulling back as uncertainty around the agreement details remained high. Even without additional Chinese demand, U.S. corn exports remain historically strong.

Outlook: Grain markets may continue reacting to global trade headlines and energy market swings, but overall supply fundamentals remain relatively stable. Operators should continue monitoring grain-driven categories like oils, breading, and feed-sensitive proteins for any downstream pricing movement.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna prices surged 19.5% month-over-month in March, marking one of the sharpest seafood category increases this year. While some rebound was expected following historically weak pricing throughout much of 2025, the strength of the increase exceeded normal seasonal expectations.

Outlook: Tuna markets may continue firming modestly through the summer months as seasonal demand strengthens. Multi-unit operators with seafood-forward menus may want to monitor tuna costs closely as elevated pricing could impact promotional planning and margin management later this season.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.

Want the full report in your inbox everyday?

Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox: 

CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here. 

Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.

Learn More

Expert insights curated weekly.

Powered by CommodityONE

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Produce

Tomato prices have fallen sharply as new supplies from the Eastern U.S. and Mexico enter the market, with expectations of prices returning to historical ranges by late June. Onion markets are stabilizing as new-crop supplies come online, and a significant downturn is expected over the coming weeks. Lettuce remains historically elevated but is projected to normalize by month-end, with iceberg lettuce expected to moderate by mid-June.

Outlook: Expect tomato and onion costs to decline through June, and iceberg lettuce to moderate by mid-June, restoring more normal produce pricing into summer. This creates a favorable window for summer produce promotions.

Grains & Vegetable Oils

The May Crop Production and WASDE reports provided the first 2026/27 balance sheets. Despite a projected over 25% jump in biofuel demand, U.S. soybean oil carryout is forecast to rise slightly year-over-year due to larger production and weaker exports. This presents a fundamentally bearish signal that may not be fully priced into the market yet.

Outlook: Fundamentals suggest potential softening in soybean oil prices, with a gradual downside bias if the market reprices these fundamentals. Staggered purchases and short-term contracts for soybean oil are advised.

Dairy

Most spot dairy items eased last week, with butter being a slight exception. Cheese is trading roughly 12% below last year, and butter is about 30% below, supported by seasonally strong milk production. March cheese exports were strong, but softening global prices may blunt export momentum later in the summer.

Outlook: Dairy pricing is favorable in the near term, particularly for cheese and butter. However, monitor export competitiveness for potential late-summer volatility. Locking in extended coverage now is recommended to protect summer and early-fall menu economics.

Beef

Weekly beef production saw a modest increase of 1.4%, but year-to-date output still trails 2025 by approximately 6.7% due to reduced cattle slaughter. Cutout prices were mixed, with Select finishing above Choice, potentially indicating consumer trade-down. Flanks and chucks strengthened, while briskets and loins softened. The USDA has trimmed its production estimates for Q2 through Q4, suggesting the anticipated feedlot backlog may not materialize.

Outlook: Structural tightness in supply and downgraded USDA forecasts point to sustained upward price pressure across many beef items through the latter half of 2026. While some near-term relief may be seen on specific primal cuts, overall inflation is expected.

Pork

Pork output eased by 3.6% week-over-week and is roughly flat year-over-year. The pork cutout saw a modest gain, led by butts and ribs. Pork bellies have collapsed significantly, down nearly 5% last week and over 16% year-over-year, creating a strong buying opportunity. Exports to Mexico remain very strong, setting a March record, which is expected to provide a price floor for hams.

Outlook: Pork bellies and bacon represent a clear short-term buying window for summer promotions. Hams should find support from robust Mexican demand heading into Q3 and Q4.

Poultry

Domestic chicken production continues to be robust, with year-to-date output up approximately 3% year-over-year. While most items are firming, boneless skinless breasts are down just over 1% and on track to average lower in May than April. Chicken wings are trading near decade-low May levels, and table eggs have ticked up. Chinese chicken imports are projected to fall to their lowest since 2013, limiting potential export upside for U.S. product.

Outlook: Expect continued price pressure and promotional opportunities for breasts and wings. While export flows may offer limited long-term support, the significant value gap versus beef presents a portfolio-level margin opportunity.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet prices fell 8.8% month-over-month in March and remain weak after an extended downturn. This is atypical, as tilapia has historically peaked between March and April. Import flows and seasonal patterns have not provided their usual upward support.

Outlook: Tilapia and some imported whitefish should remain competitively priced in the near term, implying a flat-to-softer price profile. This supports value-oriented menu features and LTOs while helping to manage food costs.

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