Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here.
Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.
Expert insights curated weekly.
Powered by CommodityONE
Freshly Picked Insights
- Is Your Growth Eating Your Profits?
- Stronger Partnerships, Smarter Data—Better Performance Across Every Location
- Full Dining Room. Better Bottom Line?
Poultry
September chicken output declined 1.3% year over year, confirming tighter production. Pricing diverged by cut, with breasts and leg quarters lower and thighs commanding a record premium to boneless, skinless breasts; egg-layer growth suggests better egg availability.
Outlook: Maintain winter chicken cost contingencies and evaluate specification flexibility across locations, while monitoring eggs separately for improving supply.
Beef
Beef output declined 4.2% year over year, while September feedlot placements fell 12%. Rising Mexican cattle imports have not yet offset the broader supply constraint, and rib strength contrasts with declines in briskets and flanks.
Outlook: Expect continued beef cost exposure and assess contracts, cut specifications and menu pricing consistently across the system.
Pork
Pork output increased 2.6% week over week, and the cutout fell nearly 13% over the month. All major primals declined, with notable weakness in hams and picnics as sluggish consumption outweighed constrained hog availability.
Outlook: Broad pork weakness may support purchasing opportunities, but balance commitments against demand forecasts rather than assuming prices have reached a floor.
Produce
Lettuce remains elevated amid western growing issues, while large Roma tomato prices rose 20.6% in a week. Potatoes edged higher, with new-crop storage expected to ease prices later but not restore earlier lows soon.
Outlook: Plan for near-term lettuce and tomato inflation, using approved substitutions and coordinated supplier communication to limit variation across locations.
Dairy
Cheese and butter prices increased even as September milk output rose 2.6% year over year. Demand from other milk uses is constraining cheese supply, while strong whey demand and exports are sustaining elevated whey prices.
Outlook: Cheese carries downside risk, but whey remains a separate inflation concern that warrants ingredient-level monitoring across contracted products.
Grains
Wheat led grain-market declines as potential Black Sea shipping negotiations raised expectations for additional global supply. Reports of higher U.S. winter wheat plantings added longer-term pressure, while soybean oil was comparatively steady.
Outlook: Potential wheat weakness favors reviewing coverage timing, while keeping grain, oil and finished-product pricing assumptions separate.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia fillet import prices declined 5% month over month, reversing two months of gains despite below-normal import volumes. Weak domestic demand appears to be outweighing supply limitations at this stage of the seasonal cycle.
Outlook: Evaluate tilapia value within seafood programs, but account for a possible price recovery toward year-end and stronger first-quarter demand.
Need Help Managing Market Volatility?
Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive-no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.
Want the full report in your inbox everyday?
Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox:
CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.
Expert insights curated weekly.
Powered by CommodityONE
