Freshly Picked, January 13, 2026

Freshly Picked Insights

• You Don’t Have a Restaurant Problem—You Have a Scale Problem
• The Costs You’re Not Watching Are Hurting You Most
• Great Operators Trust Data—Not Just Instinct

Produce

Iceberg lettuce continues to slide (24‑count down ~14% w/w, seventh consecutive weekly decline) and looks set to stabilize in a lower trading band; average carton pricing is likely to settle around $10 with a $10–$20 range through the first half of the year. Roma tomatoes have cooled after a brief December bounce and appear to be heading toward a ~$10/carton floor. Avocados have been pressured through the past year but historically begin firming in February, so early‑month monitoring is advised. For menus, swapable greens and tomato SKUs give flexibility while lettuce recovers.

Outlook: Expect softening lettuce and tomato costs near term; lock in avocado contracts cautiously as February may mark a turning point.

Grains

Markets were quiet as traders awaited the USDA WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports; corn is the most sensitive to any yield revisions, while soybeans and wheat could move as well. Corn is testing technical resistance amid record export activity and expectations for lower acreage next season—small changes to the 2025 yield estimate could trigger a breakout. For foodservice buyers, feed‑cost volatility is the main channel through which grain moves will show up in protein costs.

Outlook: Watch the USDA reports closely—if corn tightens, expect upward pressure on protein prices later in the quarter.

Dairy

CME blocks slipped to $1.36/lb and barrels held at $1.40/lb; spot butter fell to $1.30/lb and remains well below year‑ago and five‑year averages. Milk output and spot volumes are ample after holiday churn, cheese production is steady, and foodservice demand entered January lighter. Export demand remains a supportive factor, but domestic purchasing is subdued. For operators, disposable butter and cheese inventory can be opportunistically replenished while prices are lower.

Outlook: Short‑term stability with abundant supply—consider forward buying on bulk butter/cheese if you need to hedge for seasonal promotions.

Beef

CME Feb cattle rose to $235.27/cwt (+1.6%), and the choice cutout climbed to $356.79/cwt (+~2%) as strength shifted into chucks, rounds and ground beef while some premium rib cuts softened. Chuck rolls, shoulder clods, insides rounds and bottom round flats all showed the biggest weekly gains; ground 81% and various trims also firmed. The market is being supported by a tightening cattle supply and a rotation away from ribs/tenderloins. For operators, end‑cut menu items and value burgers are more exposed to near‑term inflation than some premium steak SKUs.

Outlook: Prices should remain supported but range‑bound into February as demand seasonally eases—lock critical volumes if you need protection on ground/trim.

Pork

The pork cutout eased to $90.79/cwt (-4%), with loins, butts, ribs, bellies and hams mostly lower; boneless loins at $1.29/lb and baby‑back ribs at $2.59/lb showed notable drops. Pork butt and belly primals were softer, though export activity (118 loads of boneless butts) is active. Trim values (42% and 72%) were firmer, offering a cheaper grind input. With typical post‑holiday demand pullback, promotional windows on loins and bellies may be available.

Outlook: Expect range‑bound to modestly lower pricing through month‑end—consider opportunistic promotions on loin and belly items and lean on trims for value products.

Poultry

USDA holiday-week young chicken harvest was 127.2 million head (-2.8% y/y), while National Composite WOGs ticked up to $1.19/lb. Boneless/skinless breasts rose $0.02 to $1.17/lb (only +1% m/m, -19% y/y), tenderloins gained $0.01 to $1.40/lb, and wings were roughly $0.98/lb (up slightly m/m but down heavily y/y). Thigh meat is steady around $1.23/lb and running above the five‑year average, and turkey breast and whole turkey prices remain sharply higher y/y. Egg shell indices plunged as flocks recovered from late‑2024 HPAI, leaving shell egg prices well below last year.

Outlook: Expect relatively stable wholesale poultry and egg pricing through January—maintain current protein promotions and monitor wing availability if demand spikes.

Seafood

USDA import data (October) showed frozen Alaskan pollock prices down 12.1% m/m and 30.1% y/y, pushing pollock toward a multi‑year low after a brief late‑summer bounce. The data remain lagged, but current indications point to weak pollock pricing and limited upside until spring. Menu opportunities exist to promote pollock or pollock‑based value items while prices are depressed, but plan for potential seasonal tightening in Q2.

Outlook: Pollock likely remains soft into Q2 2026—consider promotional programs or incremental menu usage while supplies are competitively priced.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.