Freshly Picked, April 7, 2026

Freshly Picked Insights

• Still Managing Purchasing Like It’s 2010?
• Are You Leaving Rebate Dollars on the Table?
• Is Your Restaurant Running Smoothly or Just Keeping Up?

Produce

24-count iceberg lettuce eased toward a $10/carton floor last week. Roma tomatoes (25 lb. large) accelerated higher, nearing $40/carton again amid volatility expected through April, pending Mexico and Eastern U.S. volume recovery. Hass avocados (48-count) hit a YTD high pre-Semana Santa but remain well below seasonal norms, with potential climbs through June capped near $40/carton absent disruptions.

Outlook: Tomato prices face ongoing April volatility; avocados may rise modestly into summer. Stabilizing lettuce supports baseline planning—secure hedges or alternates for high-volatility items.

Grains

Grains mixed last week amid biofuel news, USDA reports, geopolitics, and weather. Soybean oil stalled post-March despite strong EPA 2026/27 diesel mandate, clouded by crude volatility and demand doubts. Soybeans stayed stable through EPA/USDA updates, possibly eyeing delayed May Trump-Xi talks.

Outlook: Range-bound trading persists until policy/geopolitical clarity; hedge key inputs like oil/meal. Flexible strategies suit the uncertain near-term landscape.

Dairy

CME spot dairy held steady: cheese blocks/barrels up <1%, butter down nearly 2%. Milk production rises seasonally; Easter slowdowns flooded open markets, with Class III below and Class II near class prices. Butter and cheese demand is solid domestically, bolstered by record exports—cheese +30% YoY (monthly record), butter +77% (3rd highest). Feb production gains (cheese +3.9%, butter +9.1% YoY) were fully exported plus surplus.

Outlook: Export strength will balance dairy markets, spurring cheese output via low Class III pricing. Ample availability expected; focus on export-driven upside for procurement leverage.

Beef

Spot cattle trade was light but spiked sharply late last week across major states, despite a 2.2% weekly production rise that still trails 2025 by 6.4% (year-to-date down 7.6%). Cattle slaughter is running 10% below last year, with packer margins turning negative and likely persisting, which may constrain output. Boxed beef cutouts for Choice and Select dipped less than 1%, led by rounds, while briskets, flanks, and most trim firmed—90% domestic trim hit a record high. March delivered record CME feeder and live cattle closes, signaling expansion intent, but Southern Plains drought severely hampers herd rebuilding. U.S. cattle supplies are poised to stay tight for years.

Outlook: Persistently low cattle inventories will sustain elevated beef prices amid packer margin pressure and drought constraints. Plan for supply volatility with diversified sourcing and forward contracting to mitigate cost escalation.

Pork

Pork

Hog prices softened into late week, with year-to-date output 0.4% below last year, yet the USDA pork cutout edged higher on rib and ham strength. Backribs stayed firm amid high beef prices and grilling season demand, though premiums over St. Louis ribs may limit gains. The March USDA Hog and Pigs Report revealed lower-than-expected inventories, breeding herd, pig crop, and farrowings for Dec 2025-Feb 2026, pointing to likely downward revisions in H2 2026 production forecasts (previously +2.8% Q3, +2.4% Q4 YoY). Offsetting this, pig-per-litter yields rose 2.2% YoY to a record for the period, continuing an upward trend since 2017.

Outlook: Tighter pork supplies will prompt USDA forecast cuts for late 2026, though improved litter yields provide some buffer. Prioritize rib and ham procurement while building flexibility into contracts for inventory shifts.

Poultry

Young broiler slaughter eased slightly week-over-week and remains just 0.1% above last year, with USDA projecting a robust Q2 2026 production increase of 300 million pounds from Q1. Broiler egg sets and chick placements are up nearly 2% year-over-year, aligning with supply forecasts. Chicken prices firmed across major markets last week, with boneless skinless breast surging 17% in the past month to its highest since early September. Egg prices fell below $1, turkey breasts softened further, and leg quarters held flat, while feed costs matched March 2025 levels. Producer margins narrowed year-over-year but exceed the five-year average, supporting ongoing production amid record flock efficiencies that could exceed supply expectations later in 2026.

Outlook: Chicken supplies should remain ample into Q2, potentially capping seasonal price gains, though breast and wing segments carry upside risk. Tight monitoring of margins and efficiencies will be key to navigating potential supply surprises.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet hit a 2012-low $1.41/lb in Jan after volatility: Nov collapse cut Dec imports (lifting prices), Jan rebound spurred downturn. Imports bottom Mar-Apr (12/14 yrs), peaking prices then (13/14 yrs)—likely firming now, downtrending by May.

Outlook: Prices to peak through Apr-May on seasonal lows, then decline. Time purchases for post-May value; monitor import data for volatility.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.