Freshly Picked, April 8, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

• Struggling with Costs and Labor? Here’s Your Fix.
• Short on Staff? Let Strategy Do the Heavy Lifting
• Ingredient Trends That Actually Make Operational Sense

 

Produce

Tomato and lettuce prices reversed course, trending slightly lower after recent surges—though supply concerns remain. Roma tomatoes may not settle until they hit $20/carton, and iceberg could still spike toward $30. Avocado prices dipped slightly but remain elevated, up over 60% y/y. Expect more movement in April pending tariff developments.

 

Grains

Corn and wheat held mostly flat thanks to early-week gains from USDA reports, but new tariff fears sparked a market-wide sell-off later in the week. Mexico was spared, keeping corn more stable, but tensions with major buyers like China and Japan could pressure prices going forward. Soybeans remain the weakest link due to lack of bullish fundamentals.

 

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices ticked slightly lower amid softening foodservice demand and fewer retail promos. Cheese blocks dropped to $1.62/lb, while barrels nudged up. Butter fell $0.05 to $2.33/lb. Milk output is increasing, inventories are growing, and the market remains steady with balanced demand.

 

Beef

Despite a dip in cattle futures, beef prices remain firm across premium cuts. Ribeyes and tenderloins surged again, with tenderloins up 6% to $14.55/lb. Ground beef and trim also climbed, suggesting strong seasonal demand. Chuck and round segments were more mixed. As grilling season heats up, beef is expected to retain price strength on the back of strong fundamentals.

 

Pork

Pork markets held steady with the cutout flat at $94.81/cwt. Loins and butts posted modest gains, while tenderloins and ribs softened. Belly prices continued to fall, now down 6% w/w. Export volumes rose, but ongoing tariffs from Mexico and China cast uncertainty. Volatility is expected, but domestic consumers could benefit from softening prices.

 

Poultry

Chicken breast prices surged again—now at $2.41/lb, up 57% year-over-year—while boneless thighs also rose to $1.76/lb. WOGs and foodservice bird sizes posted moderate gains, and after weeks of falling, wings finally saw a tiny uptick. Egg prices continue to slide, down another 3% w/w and over 50% m/m, as imports help stabilize supply ahead of Easter. Looking ahead, tariff-related uncertainty and flat demand may put downward pressure on wholesale chicken prices.

 

Seafood

Frozen snow crab surged 33% m/m in February to $10.24/lb—its highest since mid-2022—driven by tight imports. But this momentum likely won’t last, as demand and volume typically increase by late May and peak in summer. Relief isn’t expected until August.