Freshly Picked, August 12, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

• Struggling to Manage Multiple Restaurant P&Ls? Here’s a Simple Solution.
• Can You Grow and Stay Profitable? Here’s How Emerging Brands Do It.
• How Can Multi-Unit Operators Grow Without Sacrificing Profitability?

Produce

Iceberg lettuce pricing jumped back to $25.49/carton on lighter weights and disease pressure in the West, reversing the recent cooldown from July’s peak. If supply issues persist, iceberg could approach $35/carton this fall. In contrast, 48-count Hass avocados continued their decline, hitting the lowest level since January 2024 despite seasonal shifts and tariff uncertainty.

Outlook: Lettuce remains a risk category for Q3–Q4, and large-volume buyers may need to explore alternative greens or diversify sourcing. Avocado costs should remain favorable into year-end, creating margin opportunities for concepts using guacamole or fresh slices.

Grains

Grain markets steadied after weeks of weakness, supported by strong demand and expectations for a larger U.S. corn yield—now projected at 184 bu/acre. Soymeal posted moderate gains, while wheat and corn saw minor increases. Traders remain cautious ahead of the August WASDE report.

Outlook: Larger yield projections could cap price increases, but global demand may keep corn supported above $4/bushel. Operators with grain-dependent menu items should look for contracting opportunities in the near term to lock in favorable pricing.

Dairy

Cheese led dairy market gains, with CME blocks up $0.15/lb and barrels up $0.12/lb. Butter prices fell on lighter retail demand, but tighter cream supplies added upward pressure on cream pricing. Milk production remains seasonally low but adequate for processing needs. Cheese production is steady to strong nationwide, supported by foodservice demand.

Outlook: Steady demand from restaurants should help keep cheese pricing firm. Multi-unit operators should plan for stable-to-slightly higher cheese costs into early fall and monitor cream pricing for potential downstream butter cost impacts.

Beef

Beef prices surged last week as operators stocked up ahead of Labor Day. Choice cutout climbed 5% to $378.94/cwt, driven by strong rib and tenderloin demand. While strips slipped slightly, chuck and round cuts saw firm gains. Ground beef and trim also rose, with 50% trim up $0.25 to $2.02/lb.

Outlook: Short-term demand is expected to stay elevated into the holiday window, with some early buying for year-end holiday menus already occurring. Large-scale operators should anticipate firm prices through September, especially for premium and end cuts.

Pork

Pork cutout rose 2% to $116.33/cwt, led by strength in ribs, loins, and bellies. Butts and hams softened slightly, and tenderloins eased by $0.10/lb. The belly primal posted a notable 6% gain, impacting food cost planning for breakfast and sandwich menus. Futures and cash hog prices were mixed.

Outlook: Prices could trend mixed-to-lower in the next month as summer demand tapers off. Multi-unit buyers should watch belly and rib markets closely for potential relief before holiday menu planning begins.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest was 170.1M head last week, down 1% from the prior week but nearly 2% above last year. Whole birds softened slightly, and white meat pricing was mixed—boneless/skinless breasts rose to $1.95/lb, tenderloins were flat, and wings inched up to $1.72/lb. Thigh meat eased, while turkey pricing jumped sharply, led by a 12% increase in boneless breasts. Egg prices fell nearly 3%.

Outlook: Seasonal price declines are slowing, but potential tariffs could dampen exports, influencing supply chain dynamics for large buyers. White meat demand remains steady due to cost efficiency, making it a strategic protein for menu stability. Prices are expected to stay flat to slightly lower until retail promotions resume in the fall.

Seafood

Cod prices fell over 12% m/m, hitting the $3.80/lb target ahead of schedule after months of steady declines. Import volumes remain light, which could help stabilize the market after a volatile first half of 2025.

Outlook: Pricing is likely to hold near current levels into year-end, but volatility risk remains. Large-scale buyers may consider forward-buying or diversifying whitefish supply to hedge against unexpected swings.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.