Freshly Picked, August 4 2025

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Produce

Potato prices held flat, but the pre-harvest rally may be topping out. Iceberg lettuce took a nosedive—down nearly 37%—while avocados and tomatoes behaved as expected. No major supply concerns yet.

Outlook: Lettuce pricing should stabilize near its short-term floor. Avocados might bump up briefly in early August but should trend lower overall. Expect a quiet few weeks before produce pricing heats up again in late Q3.

Grains

Grain prices were down again. The rising dollar and falling soybean prices dragged the market lower—even soybean oil dipped despite improved biofuel demand.

Outlook: SBO demand for biofuels is recovering, but not enough to offset broader market weakness. Expect continued pressure unless grain exports surge or weather events shake things up.

Dairy

Cheese block and barrel prices both rose slightly, while butter edged up $0.01/lb. Milk output is lighter in hot regions, but manufacturers are keeping up with contracted demand. Butter exports remain strong thanks to competitive pricing.

Outlook: Cheese and butter markets look steady for now. Watch for heat-related dips in milk supply to influence short-term pricing, but no dramatic swings expected.

Beef

Cattle prices nudged up, but the beef cutout fell again—down over $30/cwt in a month. Ribs and tenderloins held firm, while most loin cuts and grinds softened. Trim prices dropped, especially the 50% lean variety.

Outlook: Most beef cuts have likely hit their seasonal highs. Rib and end cuts may firm up slightly, but don’t expect a major rebound across the board.

Pork

Pork prices slipped last week, with a 5% drop in the cutout. Loins, ribs, and bellies were mostly down, while tenderloins and hams bucked the trend with modest gains. Trims held steady or ticked down slightly.

Outlook: Lean hog prices are expected to fall in line with futures. Overall pork values will likely stay mixed to lower, especially with tariff uncertainty in the mix.

Poultry

Chicken prices inched up last week, with boneless breasts finally rising after 8 straight weeks of declines. Wings climbed again and are now up 25% month-over-month. Thigh meat saw mixed movement, while turkey was all over the place—boneless up, whole birds down. Egg prices also ticked up.

Outlook: The typical summer slowdown in chicken pricing is cooling off. But with tariffs looming, exports might dip. Expect flat to lower prices until fall promotions start rolling.

Seafood

Fresh Atlantic salmon continues its downward correction, now sitting 4.3% below the five-year average. Prices have dropped sharply since March but are finally stabilizing.

Outlook: The steep decline is likely behind us. Prices will keep sliding through fall, but at a slower pace. Still a good time to lean into salmon if it fits your menu.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

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