Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Avocado prices rebounded 11.7% w/w, stalling their downward trend, with stability expected until late April or May. Iceberg lettuce unexpectedly fell 7.1% w/w despite ongoing concerns about cold weather impacts, signaling a potential short-term price ceiling between $20-$30/carton.
Grains
Wheat markets remained strong, driven by cold weather concerns in the U.S. and Russia. U.S. wheat export sales outperformed expectations, and with global supply already tight, prices should hold onto recent gains even if winterkill damage is minimal.
Dairy
The dairy market was mixed, with CME blocks down $0.02 to $1.90/lb and barrels falling 3% to $1.78/lb. Butter prices rose $0.03 to $2.43/lb, supported by strong cream supply, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.
Beef
Beef prices continued to decline, with the choice cutout down 2% to $312.62/cwt. Rib prices were mixed, with bone-in exports dropping 8% but boneless ribeye rising 2% to $9.93/lb. Ground beef 81% saw a sharp 18% drop to $2.71/lb, though out-front sales were higher at $3.03/lb, indicating potential price rebounds as spring demand picks up.
Pork
Pork prices were mixed, with loins up slightly while ribs and tenderloins trended lower. The belly primal plunged 25% to $136.52/cwt, but a moderate rebound is expected in the coming weeks. Anticipated increases in export sales, freezer restocking, and spring retail promotions should drive the market higher.
Poultry
Chicken harvests dipped slightly w/w but were up 2.6% y/y, with boneless/skinless breasts climbing $0.07 to $1.66/lb while tenderloins edged down to $1.69/lb. Egg prices rose 4% w/w, and with ongoing HPAI outbreaks and Easter demand approaching, the egg market is expected to remain tight.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna prices fell 3.8% m/m after an unusual counter-seasonal climb but remain 13.8% higher y/y. The market is expected to stay volatile, with prices likely declining again after January before stabilizing in June.
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