Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Produce
Avocado prices fell 4.7% w/w but remain elevated, with little relief expected before summer. Yellow onions stabilized at a three-year low of $6/sack, while romas and lettuce held steady. A potential Q1/Q2 lettuce supply gap remains unpredictable.
Grains
The grains sector declined but found support after the U.S. delayed tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods. While U.S.-Canada talks remain tense, Mexico’s continued demand for U.S. corn and wheat offers some optimism. Meanwhile, soybeans face pressure from China’s stockpiling and Brazil’s record crop.
Dairy
Dairy markets saw sharp declines, with CME blocks dropping 15% to $1.63/lb and barrels down 8% to $1.66/lb. Butter prices slipped $0.04 to $2.30/lb, with domestic demand steady but international buyers showing strong interest.
Beef
Beef prices remained steady, with the choice cutout at $199.25/cwt. The rib complex strengthened, with bone-in export ribs up 6% to $8.87/lb. Ground beef 81% rose 3% to $2.79/lb, and 50% trim jumped 5% to $1.09/lb. With a lower harvest rate and spring grilling season ahead, prices are expected to rise further.
Pork
The pork market was mixed, with the cutout climbing to $106.13/cwt. Belly prices tumbled 17% to $152.82/cwt, continuing recent volatility. Trim prices rose, with 42% trim up $0.10 to $0.77/lb and 72% trim increasing $0.07 to $1.10/lb. The market faces uncertainty from tariffs, which may drive further instability.
Poultry
Chicken harvests declined 2.4% w/w but remained nearly flat y/y. Boneless/skinless breasts surged $0.16 to $1.92/lb, while tenderloins rose $0.04 to $1.73/lb. The USDA’s large eggshell index increased 1.5% w/w, while turkey prices climbed sharply, with bone-in whole turkeys up 12% w/w. Canada and Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs may help lower U.S. chicken part prices.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna spiked 15.8% m/m due to low import volumes, reaching its highest price since early 2023. Prices are expected to peak before dropping sharply between April and June, following historical trends.
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