Freshly Picked, March 17, 2026

Freshly Picked Insights

• Your 50-Unit Chain is Leaving Money on the Table (Here’s How to Capture It)
• Produce Problems Stealing Unit Manager Time? Fix It.
• You Think You Know Your Numbers, But Are You Showing Investors What They Actually Want to See?

Produce

Roma tomatoes eased from recent highs above $40/carton amid ongoing Mexican and Eastern U.S. supply issues, while iceberg lettuce normalized to mid-January levels and trends sideways; limes surged 19% week-over-week, doubling year-to-date in typical early-March fashion.

Outlook: Tomato volatility lingers with limited upside, iceberg stabilizes, and limes peak soon before summer decline. Implement menu flexibility for tomato/lime items and diversified sourcing to minimize impact on salads, salsas, and beverages.

Grains

Wheat and corn held uptrends despite oil-linked volatility, with wheat underpinned above $5.60; soybeans outperform, potentially drawing acres, ahead of the March Prospective Plantings Report amid geopolitical support.

Outlook: Firmness persists into planting data. Hedge grain-exposed items like bakery/breaded products and monitor reports for inflection points to optimize feed and ingredient costs.

Dairy

CME trading was thin with butter down slightly but supported by strong 82% export demand and tight bulk supply; cheese blocks/barrels softened modestly, while whey and nonfat dry milk edged higher.

Outlook: Butter downside is limited by exports, offering cheese buying opportunities. Buffer butter inventories and lock in cheese pricing for pizza/sandwich concepts to stabilize dairy costs.

Beef

Beef production is down 7.6% year-to-date due to 10% lower slaughter, though heavier dressed weights provide some offset; Choice boxed beef hit six-month highs led by flanks (+16% monthly), loins, and ribs. Demand stays resilient with per-capita consumption up 0.5% despite 14% higher retail prices.

Outlook: Tight supplies should sustain firm pricing near-term. Operators can emphasize value cuts, trim efficiency, and forward contracts for primals to manage costs across premium and value concepts.

Pork

Pork production rose 1.9% week-over-week and 2.1% year-over-year, with year-to-date output marginally lower; cutouts firmed to October highs driven by bellies (+16% monthly) and picnics. Retail prices hit records despite favorable wholesale levels, risking demand.

Outlook: Belly strength may persist, but watch the USDA Hog & Pigs Report for fall relief signals. Secure forward buys for bacon programs now and plan promotional flexibility to balance elevated retail pressures portfolio-wide.

Poultry

Domestic chicken production remains elevated year-to-date, up 3.7% from last year, with thighs gaining 13% over the past four weeks while boneless skinless breasts stay flat against historical March trends and wings dip below $1. USDA projects record per-capita consumption, capturing more protein share from beef and pork.

Outlook: Abundant supply may pressure breast prices further, but thighs offer cost advantages for promotions. Multi-unit operators should prioritize thigh-forward menu engineering and bone-in features across concepts to leverage consumption growth and protect margins.

Seafood

January imports showed volatility with fresh yellowfin tuna up 26% month-over-month to ~$4.40/lb in its typical short-lived seasonal peak after 2025’s weak year.

Outlook: Prices face pressure through May-June post-rally. Stagger tuna buys, explore alternatives, and time seafood features for late summer value across concepts.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.