Freshly Picked, March 31, 2026

Freshly Picked Insights

• You Fixed Food Costs… So Why Are Your Margins Still Shrinking?
• Your Inventory Should Not Be Guesswork at Scale
• Sustainability Is Not a Trend It Is a Margin Strategy

Produce

Iceberg lettuce is approaching the $10–$15 carton range, offering cost relief across high-volume menu items. Tomatoes remain a pressure point due to Eastern U.S. supply gaps, while oranges are holding around $30 per carton, above seasonal norms.

Outlook: Lock in favorable pricing where possible and consider menu flexibility around tomatoes as volatility continues.

Grains

Grain markets are reacting to updated renewable fuel mandates, with stronger biofuel demand supporting soybean oil. However, delayed import penalties to 2028 are creating longer-term uncertainty around domestic demand recovery.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility, with potential downstream impacts on feed costs and center-of-plate proteins.

Dairy

Cheese markets are strengthening, with blocks at $1.6305, supported by seasonal milk production increases, while butter remains tighter at $1.8155. Export demand remains mixed, and rising freight costs continue to influence pricing dynamics.

Outlook: Expect limited short-term relief, with potential seasonal increases in cheese and butter pricing as demand picks up.

Beef

Beef production is down 12.1% year over year, with slaughter volumes tracking nearly 10% below last year, keeping supply tight across the system. Even with slight relief in boxed beef pricing, demand remains strong, with consumption projected to hit a 17-year high.

Outlook: Elevated pricing will persist, making portion control, mix optimization, and strategic sourcing critical across locations.

Pork

Pork

Pork production is up 2.5% year over year, driving softness in key categories like hams, now at two-year lows, and continued pressure on bellies. While total inventory is slightly higher (+0.4%), a 1.5% decline in the breeding herd signals potential tightening later in the year.

Outlook: Lean into lower-cost cuts for short-term margin relief, with potential pricing support emerging later this year.

Poultry

Chicken supply remains strong, with production running 3.1% above last year and expected to stay at least 2% higher through spring based on chick placements. Markets firmed overall, but wings dropped to their lowest level since June 2023, hovering near $1.00 per pound, creating a unique pricing gap across cuts.

Outlook: Favor breast meat and wings for value-driven menu strategies as abundant supply continues to cap pricing upside.

Seafood

Cod prices jumped 11.8% month over month due to lower-than-expected import volumes, disrupting typical seasonal pricing patterns. Tight supply conditions could persist if imports do not rebound ahead of the usual spring recovery.

Outlook: Plan for elevated seafood costs and evaluate alternative species or contract opportunities to manage risk.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.