Freshly Picked, October 21, 2025

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Produce

The lettuce market continued its steep climb, with 24-count iceberg cartons rising another 16% week-over-week as western supply remains tight. Prices are expected to peak around $40/carton by mid-November before correcting lower once new crop regions ramp up. Tomatoes continued to trade counter-seasonally lower, with 25-lb large Romas nearing $10/carton, though weather disruptions across Mexico’s Baja Peninsula could provide short-term support.

Outlook: Expect lettuce prices to hold firm for several more weeks before reversing course in late November. Tomato prices may stabilize or see minor rebounds if supply tightens due to weather impacts.

Grains

Grains finally saw a modest uptick across the board. Wheat managed to close slightly higher week-over-week, while soybeans avoided a deeper sell-off after a strong September crush report. Prices remain under pressure from weak export inspections and renewed U.S.–China trade friction. Analysts expect soybeans to remain locked in a $10–$10.30/bu range unless trade conditions change.

Outlook: Barring any new trade developments, grains will likely remain rangebound near current levels. Operators should continue monitoring soybean meal costs closely for feed and protein price implications.

Dairy

The dairy complex was mixed but slightly firmer overall. CME butter slipped $0.03 to $1.63/lb as churns prioritized retail production ahead of the holidays. Cheese markets inched higher, with blocks and barrels both at $1.77/lb. Milk production strengthened thanks to cooler weather, and cheese output remains steady as processors manage spot milk costs. Retail demand continues to outperform foodservice, though export interest has improved.

Outlook: Butter demand will likely keep prices supported through year-end, while steady milk output and weaker foodservice sales should keep cheese and milk prices rangebound.

Beef

Beef markets showed early signs of stabilization last week. The choice cutout climbed 1% to $366.11/cwt and select followed at $348.93/cwt. In premium cuts, choice striploins advanced $0.53 to $9.14/lb—the first return above $9 since mid-July—while top sirloins edged higher to $5.03/lb. Tenderloins softened slightly to $18.94/lb, and the rib complex was mixed with bone-in exports up and boneless heavy ribeyes down. Chuck and round segments were mostly firm, supported by chuck rolls and shoulder clods both gaining $0.09/lb. Ground beef also advanced, with 81% lean up $0.25 to $3.45/lb. Trim markets were steady on 50% fat and lower on 90% lean.

Outlook: As live cattle prices rebound and holiday demand strengthens for rib and loin cuts, beef values are expected to remain firm through Q4 with premium cuts seeing the most upside.

Pork

Lean hog and pork markets softened slightly, with the pork cutout down to $102.17/cwt as weakness in hams and picnics offset modest gains elsewhere. The loin primal increased 3% to $95.59/cwt, driven by stronger boneless loins and baby back ribs. Butts were mixed—boneless and bone-in both eased lower—while ribs and bellies held flat. The ham primal slipped 2%, leading overall losses, and trimmings were stable week-over-week.

Outlook: With exports slowing and lean hog futures trending down, the pork complex is likely to remain under mild downward pressure near-term before stabilizing later this quarter.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 174 million head last week—slightly lower week-over-week but still 3.5% higher than last year. Whole birds (National Composite WOGs) were down another $0.02 to $1.04/lb. White meat continued to trend sharply lower, with boneless/skinless breasts down $0.05 to $1.14/lb and chicken wings down $0.07 to $1.10/lb. Both categories have now fallen roughly 30% month-over-month. Dark meat also declined: boneless/skinless thighs dropped $0.12 to $1.60/lb and bone-in thighs fell $0.08 to $0.70/lb. Despite these declines, thighs remain about 6% above the five-year average. Turkey prices, however, remain elevated. Boneless turkey breasts rose 1% week-over-week and are still up 270% year-to-date, while whole bone-in birds gained 4% week-over-week and are 60% higher year-over-year. Egg prices held steady with the USDA large shell index flat but still 29% below last year.

Outlook: Expect chicken prices to stay soft as elevated production meets weaker retail promotions. Turkey values could remain inflated in the short term as HPAI outbreaks in the Upper Midwest tighten supply heading into the holidays.

Seafood

Shrimp markets remain steady and resilient compared to other seafood categories. After rebounding from last year’s downturn, prices have held flat through 2025 as balanced supply and steady retail demand support stability. Seasonality suggests a short-term rise could develop in late Q4 before easing in early 2026.

Outlook: Expect moderate firmness in shrimp prices through the remainder of the year, followed by a typical post-holiday correction early next quarter.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

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